NFL

Tech Trends – Week 2

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Thursday, Sept. 17

CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND (NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Teams have split all four SU and vs. line past two seasons, after Marvin Lewis Cincy teams really dominated series, winning and covering 7 in a row thru 2017.
Bengals 8-3 vs. spread last 11 as true visitor (not counting London vs. Rams LY).
Browns only 5-11-1 vs. line since 2019, 3-5-1 last nine as host.
“Overs” 4-0-1 last five meetings.

Tech edge: Bengals and “over,” based on team and series “totals” trends.

Sunday, Sept. 20

L.A. RAMS at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Rams haven’t played at Philly since 2014. LA entered 2020 on 14-7 spread uptick.
McVay 5-3 as dog since 2017, and 9-3 vs. spread last 12 away from LA, also 6-0 vs. spread playing “early” games in Eastern Time Zone (so much for the time zones messing with the Rams’ clocks).
Birds on 4-13 spread skid since early in 2018 season (4-9 last 13 as home chalk), also “under” last seven at Linc in 2019.

Tech edge: Rams and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Panthers have covered 5 of last 6 at Raymond James, but totally different casts both ways these days. Since mid 2019, Carolina 1-6-1 vs. line.
Bucs were 2-5 as chalk last season pre-Brady.
Panthers on 13-5 “over” streak after Raiders opener.
Note Bruce Arians 28-12 “over” run with his Cards and Bucs teams.

Tech edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

DENVER at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Fangio now 8-4 as dog for Broncs after Monday vs. Titans.
Broncs also now on 19-7 “under” run after Titans game.
Steel now on 18-6 "under" run after Giants result.

Tech edge: “Under” and slight to Broncos, based on “totals” and team trends.

ATLANTA at DALLAS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Falcons won and covered their last four on road in 2019, they were also 7-3 “under” down stretch last year.
Cowboys entered 2019 on 22-12 “over” run.

Tech edge: Slight to Falcons, based on team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at N.Y. JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

49ers 6-2 vs. spread as visitor last season en route to 13-7-1 overall spread mark.
Jets covered 4 of last 5 at MetLife dog in 2019, also 6-2 “under” as host.

Tech edge: Slight to 49ers and “under,” based on team and “totals’ trends..

BUFFALO at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Series has mostly tilted Buffalo’s way the past seven years, with Bills 9-4-1 vs. line last 14 meetings vs. Dolphins.
Note Bills “under” 15-6 since late 2018 (though “over” in Jets opener), but “over” in last three in series with Dolphins.

Tech edge: Slight to Bills, based on series trends.

MINNESOTA at INDIANAPOLIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Mike Zimmer Vikes teams only 3-6 last nine as dog entering 2020.
Vikes also “over” last six reg.-season games a year ago, Colts “over” 11-5 last 16 at home.

Tech edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

DETROIT at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Recent series trends favor Lions, who have covered last six meetings.
Even after Chicago loss, notoriously fast-starting Detroit 13-7-1 vs. spread in first four games of season since 2015.
Lions did drop last five vs. spread away in 2019 with Stafford absence not helping.
Pack 9-4 vs. spread last 13 at Lambeau, even with recent problems covering vs. Detroit.

Tech edge: Lions, based on series trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

G-Men covered 4 of last 5 as road dog in 2019, 10-3 vs. spread in role since 2018.
NYG has covered last two years vs. Bears and dog team has covered last three in series since 2016.
G-Men also “over” 8-2 last ten away.
Bears entered 2020 on 4-13 spread skid, but did rally in opener vs. Lions.

Tech edge: Giants, based on team and series dog trends.

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Jags no covers last five at Nashville.
“Overs” last five in series at Nissan Stadium.
Titans on 16-10 reg.-season “over” run” since mid 2018.

Tech edge: Titans and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Ron Rivera was 19-12 last 31 as dog with Panthers, and WFT won last week as “short” vs. Eagles.
Cards 0-3 as chalk the past two seasons (0-1 LY), though they are 11-5-1 vs. spread overall since LY for Kingsbury.

Tech edge: Slight to Cards, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at HOUSTON (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Ravens on 10-1 spread surge on road since mid 2018.
Texans 2-6 vs. number as NRG Stadium host in 2019.
After KC loss in opener, Houston only 5-5 as dog since last season.

Tech edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

KANSAS CITY at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Chargers debut at SoFi Stadium in front of empty house.
After opening win against Texans, Chiefs are now on 10-0 SU and spread win streak since mid 2019.
Andy Reid 6-1 vs. spread last seven vs. Bolts, dating to last Charger game in San Diego at end of 2016.
Chargers were 1-8 vs. number last nine as host at the MLS Stadium in Carson.

Tech edge: Chiefs, based on team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at SEATTLE (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

If Belichick a dog, note 12-3 spread mark in role since 2010.
Seahawks only 2-7 last nine as host since late 2018.
Seattle also 9-4 “over” last 13 as host.
Super Bowl XLIX rematch!

Tech edge: Patriots, especially if dog, and slight to “over” based on team and “totals” trends.

Monday, Sept. 21

NEW ORLEANS at LAS VEGAS (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Raiders LV debut but no fans at Allegiant Stadium.
Saints won and covered their last seven on road in 2019, and 13-4 “over” last 17 away since late 2017.

Tech edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

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