NFL

Tech Trends – Week 3

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Thursday, Sept. 24

MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE (NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET)

After spread cover vs. Bills, Dolphins 10-4 vs. line last 14 since early 2019.
Jags now “over” 4 of last 5 as host after Indy opener and 2-0 “over” this season.

Tech edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

Sunday, Sept. 27

L.A. RAMS at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Rams now 10-2 vs. spread their last 12 as visitor since late in 2018 campaign, and they have won and covered seven straight in early kickoffs in Eastern Time Zone (or London).
Bills 4-6 last ten as Orchard Park chalk.

Tech edge: Rams, based on team trends.

LAS VEGAS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Raiders have now covered last 3 and 6 of last 9 as visitor after opening win at Carolina.
Raiders had closed 2019 “under” 6 of last 7 before “overs” vs. Panthers and Saints.
Into last Sunday night at Seattle, Belichick “under” 21-12 last 33 reg.-season games, also 21-10 as Gillette Stadium reg.-season chalk since 2016.

Tech edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

HOUSTON at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Texans now no covers last 4 as dog after covering 8 of previous 11 in role.
Steel now on 14-5 and 16-6 “under” runs after opener vs. G-Men, and 9-6 vs. spread last 15 at Heinz Field (much of that minus Big Ben LY).

Tech edge: Steelers and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

G-Men now no covers last 7 as MetLife dog after opener vs. Steel.
Niners 7-2 vs. spread as visitor since 2019.

Tech edge: Niners, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Titans entered 2020 on 9-4 spread uptick but have failed to cover first two in 2020.
Vikes “over” 9-4 last 13 reg.-season games.

Tech edge: “Over” and Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.

WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Browns 0-2 vs. line for Stefanski after non-cover vs. Cincy, and Cleveland now 5-12-1 vs. line since 2019.

Tech edge: Football Team, based on Browns negatives.

CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Cincy now 5-3 as visiting dog since LY (not counting Rams in London) for Taylor and also on 5-1 “over” run.
Birds 5-14 vs. line last 18 at Linc, 4-10 last 13 as home chalk.
Philly was “under” last 7 at home in 2019 before “over” vs. Rams.

Tech edge: Bengals, based on team trends.

CHICAGO at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Bears rallied for win in opener but no cover vs. G-Men last week and now 5-14 last 19 on board.
Chicago 1-4 as dog in 2019 but got the W in role in opener vs. Lions.
Falcs closed 2019 on 6-2 SU and spread rush.
Falcs dropped first two SU in 2020 (though did cover at Dallas).

Tech edge: slight to Falcons, based on recent trends.

N.Y. JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Jets only 3-7 vs. line last ten away (3-6 for Gase) after loss at Buffalo in opener.
NY did cover 5 of last 6 as dog in 2019 before loss vs. Bills, and also no cover as dog last week vs. Niners.
Philip Rivers 5-14 vs. line with Chargers and Colts since late 2018.

Tech edge: Slight to Jets, based on team trends.

CAROLINA at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Bolts now in new stadium but were 1-8 vs. line their last nine at Carson from late 2018 thru 2019, all prior to cover vs. KC last week.
Bolts also “under” 6-1 last 7 as host since 2019, and were 2-8 LY as chalk, though did squeeze narrowest of covers in Cincy opener.
Panthers on 1-8-1 spread skid after opening losses vs. Raiders and Bucs, though also “over” 14-5 after first two in 2020.

Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Panthers, based on “totals” trends and extended Chargers home negatives.

DETROIT at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Kingsbury now 12-5-1 vs. line with Cards after 2-0 start in 2020.
Note Cards only 0-1 as chalk in 2019, but handled role vs. Football team last week.
Lions on 6-12 spread skid since LY, and “over” 12-6 since 2019 after extended “under” run prior.

Tech edge: Cards and ”Over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at DENVER (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Broncos 10-4 last 14 vs. points since early 2019 (covered first two in 2020 even though 0-2 SU), and now “under” 19-8 since mid-2018 (Fangio 10-8 “under” since LY).
If Denver a dog here note Fangio 7-2 last 9 in role. Bruce Arians only 6-11-1 vs. line with Bucs, and his teams “over” 29-12 last 41 with Cards & Bucs.

Tech edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

DALLAS at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Dallas only 8-10 vs. line its last 18 as visitor, though Cowboys 6-1 last 7 as reg.-season dog.
Hawks entered 2020 just 2-7 vs. line last 9 as Seattle chalk.

Tech edge: Cowboys, based on team trends.

GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Saints got money vs. Bucs in opener, though they were only 3-9 previous 12 as Superdome chalk.
Pack 3-0 as dog vs. teams other than 49ers last year.

Tech edge: Packers, based on team trends.

Monday, Sept. 28

KANSAS CITY at BALTIMORE (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Chiefs stretched win and cover streak to 10 in opener vs. Texans, though failed to get money vs. Bolts last week.
Andy Reid also 9-2 as dog since 2017, and won close games at Arrowhead (but covered neither) the past two years vs. Baltimore.
Ravens however have won 14 straight reg.-season games SU, covering 11 of last 12.
Last three meetings “over” including LY.

Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Ravens, based on “totals” and team trends.

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