Over-Under NFL Week 10 Total Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

21 minute read

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Handicapping Week 10 Totals

-- We're on to Week 10 of the NFL regular season, 

-- The Las Vegas Raiders got back on track in Week 9 with a 31-26 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, as they snapped back on track offensively with another 'over' result. After the battling wintry mix and windy conditions in Cleveland for their only 'under' of the season, their 'over' record improved to 6-1-1. The Raiders have the fewest amount of 'under' results in the AFC to date, following by the Buffalo Bills who have a 6-2-1 'over' record.

-- The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins have are tied for the fewest 'under' results so far, with each hitting three overs with five unders to date. The 'under' is 3-1 in four games at home for Baltimore, but they're on the road this week. The Dolphins hit an 'over' in a shootout in the desert with the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9, and the 'over' is 2-0 in their past two road games. Luckily for total bettors, the Dolphins are back home in Week 10, and they have hit three straight 'under' results at Hard Rock Stadium.

-- The New Orleans Saints racked up 31 first-half points, and they appeared to be on their way to another 'over' result in Tampa last Sunday night. However, the Saints and Buccaneers combined for just 10 total points in the second half for the first 'under' after a 7-0 'over' run to start the season.

-- The Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams have had the fewest 'over' results to date, hitting the 'under' in six of their eight games overall. Those team division rivals face each other in Week 13, and again in Week 17.

Over-Under Line Moves

We've had a decent amount of movement for several totals in Week 10, with all of the movement pushing the totals down. Bettors have reacted early and often.

Down

• Buffalo at Arizona: 49.5 to 56
• Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: 40.5 to 44.5
• Tampa Bay at Carolina: 46.5 to 50.5
• Baltimore at New England (SNF): 41 to 43.5
• Seattle at L.A. Rams: 53.5 to 55.5

Up

• Houston at Cleveland: 54.5 to 49.5
• Jacksonville at Green Bay: 55.5 to 50.5
• San Francisco at New Orleans: 53.5 to 49
• Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 48.5 to 46

Over-Under Betting Trends

Listed below are the largest leans for Week 10 as of Thursday.

• Tampa Bay at Carolina: Over 95%
• Buffalo at Arizona: Over 91%
• Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: Over 88%
• Baltimore at New England (SNF): Over 81%
• Denver at Las Vegas: Over 67%
• Seattle at L.A. Rams: Over 62%
• San Francisco at New Orleans: Over 58%

• Minnesota at Chicago (MNF): Under 94%
• Jacksonville at Green Bay: Under 91%
• Houston at Cleveland: Under 87%
• L.A. Chargers at Miami: Under 62%

Division Over-Under Notes

The 'over' went 4-1-1 in the six NFL Divisional battles in Week 9, and the 'over' is now ahead 22-21-1 (51.2%) overall this season. We have another six divisional matchups on tap for Sunday/Monday.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: The Eagles and Giants game opened with the lowest total on the board, but it shot up four points by Thursday morning. It's a little baffling since the Eagles are coming off a 23-9 win over Dallas last time out, and these teams just combined for 43 points in Week 7 in the first matchup, an 'under' result (44.5). The G-Men held on for a 23-20 road win to gain the sweep over the Football Team, either hitting the 'under' by a half point or the push depending on when you made the wager. We officially called it a push since the game closed at 43. The 'under' is 3-1 in New York's past four, and they have scored 23, 23, 21 and 20 during the four-game span. Apparently the trend bettors are steering this train, as the 'over' is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings, and 10-1 in the previous 11 meetings at the Meadowlands.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Buccaneers and Panthers meet for the second time this season, with a 31-17 win by the Bucs in Week 2 to barely hit the 'over' (47). The Bucs had 38, 45 and 25 in three games from Week 6 through 8, but the offense stumbled with just three points in Week 9's flameout against the Saints. The Panthers battled hard in Kansas City, but came up just short in a 33-31 loss as the 'over' comfortably hit. While bettors are slamming the 'over' for the second installment, remember that RB Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) is back out again with an AC joint sprain this week. With McCaffrey on the field, including part of Week 2 against the Bucs, the 'over' is 3-0. In the six games he missed, the 'under' is 5-1.

Denver at Las Vegas: After alternating 'under' and 'over' results in the first six games, the Broncos are starting to show a little more consistency on offense. Denver has hit the 'over' in three in a row, averaging 24.7 PPG while allowing 39.0 PPG, giving up 34, 30 and 43 during the span. For the Raiders, as mentioned above, they saw an 'under' in Cleveland during wintry weather, but they bounced back with an 'over' in controlled conditions at SoFi Stadium. In three home games for the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium, a.k.a. 'The Big Al', the 'over' is 2-0-1, with the offense rolling for 25.7 PPG and the defense coughing up 33.0 PPG. While two-thirds of bettors are slamming the 'over' here, the under is 7-0 in the past seven meetings in this series.

Seattle at L.A. Rams: The Seahawks have hit the 'over' in three straight games, and the over is 6-2 in eight games overall. Seattle leads the NFL with 34.3 PPG, and they're also No. 1 with 298.1 passing yards per game with 415.0 total yards to rank third. Defensively, Seattle has allowed 30.4 PPG to rank 30th in the league, so that's a tremendous recipe for 'over' bettors. The total of 55.5, as of Thursday morning, is the second-highest total on the board by a half-point behind the Buffalo Bills-Arizona Cardinals (56). While the Seahawks have been banging over results, it's all 'under' all the time for the Rams. They have cashed the 'under' in five straight, going for 17, 24, 16, 30 and 17 on offense while allowing 28, 10, 24, 10 and 9 during the five-game span. While the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series, the 'under' is 7-3 in the past 10 Rams' home games against Seattle in Los Angeles/St. Louis.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Bengals hit the road for the Steel City, and you'll have to keep a close eye on this one. QB Ben Roethlisberger is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list after sitting next to TE Vance McDonald on the plane ride home from Dallas. The tight end tested positive for the coronavirus, so Big Ben must self-isolate for five days due to close contact. He also sits next to McDonald in the locker room, so he'll see if Roethlisberger ends up with a positive test. If he tests negative Saturday, he could participate in the walkthrough and be available against the Bengals, similar to what happened with QB Matthew Stafford for the Lions last week. The total has been bet down from 48.5 to 46, as bettors are banking on the Steelers perhaps being without their signal caller, or his being rusty.

Minnesota at Chicago (MNF): (see below)

Non-Conference Angles

Week 9 featured six AFC-NFC matchups and the totals saw the 'over' go 4-2.We have two more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for the Week 10 schedule.

 Jacksonville at Green Bay: The Jaguars turned to QB Jake Luton for his first NFL start last week in Houston, and he helped the offense to 25 points and an 'over' result in his only start. Luton is likely to get the starting nod again, as QB Gardner Minshew II (thumb) is on the mend from a fractured thumb. The Jaguars defense has coughed up 27, 39, 34, 30, 33, 31 and 33 over the previous past seven games, hitting the over in five of eight games so far. For what it's worth, the Jags cashed the 'under' in the only game so far against an NFC North foe, a 34-16 loss in Week 6 against the Detroit Lions. The Packers rank in the Top 10 in total yards per game (395.9 - 7th), passing yards per game (269.3 - 8th), rushing yards per game (126.6 - 10th) and points per game (31.6 - 3rd). The Packers have hit the 'over' in each of the past two, and the 'over' is 2-1 in three home games for the Pack so far. After the AFC South, the 'under' is also 1-0 for Green Bay, a 35-20 win in Houston as the 'under' cashed by just a half-point.

Buffalo at Arizona: The Bills threw up a season-high 44 points in a crazy 44-34 win against the Seahawks at home last week. It's the second straight 'over' result, and they're now 6-2-1 on the over so far this season. The over is 2-0 for Buffalo vs. NFC West this season, too. It's a stark contast to last season when the Bills led the NFL with a 12-4 'under' record. For the Cardinals, they're also coming off an 'over' result, a 34-31 loss at home against the Dolphins, an AFC East side. The Cardinals offense is rocking lately, going for 31, 37, 38 and 30, and they have scored at least 21 points in every game this season. Defensively, Arizona has also allowed 34 in each of the past two, cashing the over in back-to-back games after the 'under' started out 6-0.

Primetime Points

SNF |  MNF | TNF

-- The 'over' ended up going 2-1 in the three primetime games in Week 9, as the Green Bay Packers doubled up the banged-up San Francisco 49ers by 34-17 score as the 'over' (48.5) connected. The New England Patriots-New York Jets (42) game had the lowest total on the board, but actually surprised with a 30-27 win by the road team. That left just the New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51) showdown between future Hall of Fame quarterbacks with an 'under' result. The battle just never materialized, with 31 first-half points and an 'over' there, but only 10 total points in the second half.
 
-- The 'under' has hit at a 17-12 (58.6%) clip in 29 primetime games so far this season. 

Sunday Night Football Notes

The Baltimore Ravens-New England Patriots meet in Foxboro, and this game has a little different look. The Patriots are not in their typical perch atop the AFC East, and of course they have a new quarterback. The Ravens have scored at least 20 points in each of their eight games, and they've gone for 24, 24, 30, 37 and 31 over the past five outings, hitting the 'over' in two of their past three road contests. The Patriots barely scraped by the winless Jets last week, posting a 30-27 win with the lowest total on the Week 9 board at 42. It was a surprising effort, as the Patriots entered with 49 total points in the previous four games combined. This isn't the Brady-led Patriots any longer. The defense has also been toasted for 27, 24 and 33 over the past three, and that might be the most surprising part of it all. If they allowed 27 to the Jets, how will defending MVP QB Lamar Jackson work against the Pats?

Monday Night Football Notes

The Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears square off Monday night at Soldier Field in an NFC North Division battle. The Bears have a big injury issue, as RB David Montgomery is in the concussion protocol. They might need to throw the ball a lot more as a result. Only WR/RB Cordarrelle Patterson, David Nall and Artavis Pierce would be on the active roster to handle running the ball if Montgomery cannot go. A more pass-happy attack for Chicago would lead to more points, presumably. It would be a welcome change, as Chicago has struggled with 17, 23 (in an OT game), 10, 23, 20 and 11 across the past six games with QB Nick Foles under center. Meanwhile, the Vikings have gone for 34, 28, 23, 26, 31 and 30 across the past six games, cashing the 'over' in five of the past six. Of course, Minny hit the 'under' in their only previous primetime game Oct. 11 in Seattle, falling 27-26 on a total of 54.

Fearless Predictions

It was another disappointing week, as the Houston-Jacksonville game ended up just going over with a late touchdown run by replacement QB Jake Luton, just pushing the game 'over'. Truth be told, it probably should have ended up going over earlier, but there was a lack of scoring for a good chunk before the late score. And the Patriots-Jets turned out to be a surprising shootout. As such, I ended up in the red (-$220), and overall I am sitting at (-$205) for the season. We'll look for a plus-number in Week 10 with four more wagers to build that bankroll back up.

• Best Over: Over 51 Broncos at Raiders
• Best Under: Under 50.5 Buccaneers at Panthers
• Best First-Half Total: Under 25.5 Buccaneers at Panthers

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

• Under 53 Bengals at Steelers
• Under 57.5 Buccaneers at Panthers
• Over 44 Broncos at Raiders

Week 9 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘over’ went 9-4-1 in Week 9, and the over has a 73-58-2 (55.7%) advantage to date. 

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