Vegas Money Moves – Week 10

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Sharps on the Rookie

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-2 ATS) at the undefeated 8-0 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2 ATS) have been a popular play this week.

At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as a few bettors took the opener of +9.5, +8, +8.5, and +8 (some quick air moves), and that was all in one day on Monday with Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s status for Sunday uncertain.

The Steelers have been off the board much of the week and sit at -7.5. It’s their first meeting against rookie QB Joe Burrow.

Chris Andrews at the South Point said they got immediate sharp action on the Bengals before taking it off the board.

The lean could be viewed as a bit surprising, considering the Steelers average score this season is 32-19.

Uncertainty Abound

Washington (4-4 ATS) will visit Detroit (3-5 ATS), who hasfailed to cover all three home games at Ford Field this season. However, Washington has lost its last five road games outside of D.C.

Lions QB Matt Stafford is still in concussion protocol and a line hasn’t been offered at most bet shops, but no one is banging on the counter demanding a number, either.

Weather will be a key story with the Texans (1-7 ATS) at Browns (3-5 ATS), although Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield hasn’t broken COVID-19 protocol yet after coming in contact with someone who had it. He’s expected to play.

The Texans are 0-4 ATS on the road and their only wins this season have come against the Jaguars, twice (1-1 ATS). It’s part of the reason why the Browns went from -1.5 all the way up to -3.5 at the SuperBook.

Rain is expected early on Sunday but the winds at 31 mph will pose a problem with both QBs.

Jaguars (3-5 ATS) money showed up at +14 early in the week for their game at the Packers (6-2 ATS), and after a brief stint at -13, Green Bay is a solid -13.5.

Jacksonville has lost its last seven games since upsetting the Colts in Week 1. William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich says the Packers are their top public play of the week.

The South Point’s Chris Andrews said they had respected money played on the Jaguars.

Divisional Games to Watch

The Eagles (3-5 ATS) opened -3 at the Giants (6-3 ATS) and have been bet up to -3 -120, and -3.5 as of Friday at the SuperBook. The Giants have covered their last three games, one of which was a 22-21 loss at Philly three weeks ago. The road team has covered the last five meetings in this NFC East series.

The Buccaneers (4-5 ATS) hope to regroup at Carolina (5-4 ATS). The Panthers have lost four straight while the Buccaneers got a rude NFC South awakening last week in a 38-3 home loss to the Saints on Sunday Night Football.

The number has been all over the place crisscrossing through the dead numbers of 5, and 5.5. The Buccaneers opened -4.5 and were at -5.5 for most of the week until being bumped up to -6 on Thursday. The Bucs are a public play, but not among the leaders. Joe Public thinks the Bucs stink after last week’s performance.

The Broncos (5-3 ATS) have become a popular sharp play at the South Point and William Hill in their first visit to Las Vegas (5-3 ATS).

The number opened Raiders -4, went up to -5, and has come back down to -4. The Raiders have won and covered their last two games and they’ve gone over the total in seven of eight games.

However, the last seven meetings have stayed under and the Raiders have covered the last five hook-ups with Denver. In the Broncos last six losses, they’ve covered the spread in the next game five times. The public has been betting the Raiders heavy in parlays at the South Point.

Key Late Game Action

Bills at Cardinals

There should be no shortage of points when Buffalo (4-5 ATS) plays at Arizona (5-3 ATS). The Cardinals No. 1 offense (422 YPG) averages a 30-27 score this season.

The Bills have gone 'over' the total in their last seven games following a win while the Cardinals have stayed 'under' in six of eight games giving you lots to think about with the highest total of the week set at 56.5.

The Cards opened -1.5 and have been bet up -2.5. William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich says the Cardinals have been one of their more popular sharp plays this week.

Seahawks at L.A. Rams

The Seattle (5-3 ATS) at L.A. Rams (4-4 ATS) number has stayed at Rams -1.5 most of the week. Meanwhile the total is hovering between 54 and 55 points despite knowing that the Rams have stayed 'under' the total in their last five games.

The Seahawks average 2020 score is 34-32 and has the worst defense in the NFL.

The underdog is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Seattle QB Russell Wilson had four turnovers last week at Buffalo and three weeks ago he had three interceptions at Arizona, both losses for the 'Hawks.

Suddenly the talk of getting an MVP vote has quieted.

49ers at Saints

This is one of the top public sides of the week: San Francisco (4-5 ATS) at New Orleans (3-5 ATS).

The point-spread has gone from Saints -8.5 to -9.5 and the public doesn’t seem to care what the spread is, they love the Saints at William Hill and the South Point.

It’s the “what we saw last test.”

The Saints have won their last five games and have gone 'over' the total in seven of their eight games with the one 'under' being last week at Tampa Bay in a 38-3 win.

The Saints do enter this game with the third-ranked defense allowing only 311 yards per game.

Ravens at Patriots

Bettors are having no problem laying points on the road with Baltimore (4-4) -7 at New England (3-5 ATS).

“The Ravens, one-way traffic that big and small punters have both been backing consistently,” said BetMGM VP Jason Scott.

The Ravens are their biggest public risk of the week at just about every book, but the spread hasn’t moved which shows you have little the bookmakers respect the public’s opinion.

Ravens average a 28-17 score this season and the team owns the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 17.8 points per game.

Chargers at Dolphins

The L.A. Chargers (5-3 ATS) have captured the interest of sharp money at William Hill books for their game at Miami (6-2 ATS). The Dolphins have won and covered four straight games but opened only -1 at the SuperBook and by Monday morning they were up to -2.5.

The Chargers buy move came on Wednesday dropping the number to -2 and then continued on Thursday to drop it to -1.5 where it sat as of Friday.

Week 10 - Public vs. Sharp Leans

Sharp

• Broncos
• Cardinals
• Chargers
• Jaguars
• Bengals
• Ravens

Public

• Packers
• Saints
• Ravens
• Raiders

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 16 years.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

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