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McMordie: The straight-up scoop
November 4, 2004
By Al McMordie
VegasInsider.com
Last January, I received a phone call from a client who questioned my selection on the Green Bay Packers plus 5 1/2 over Philadelphia because they were (according to the client) '2-51 when they lose the game straight-up.' I told him that straight-up stats were meaningless, and a dangerous foundation on which to base any kind of handicapping. So, to illustrate my comment, I did the following research of the Packers during the Brett Favre era.
First of all, I determined that since 1992, Green Bay is 8-65 against the spread when losing the game SU and 2-51 ATS since November 20, 1994 going into that game's pointspread victory versus Philly.
From 1992 thru last year, Green Bay has been an underdog of six points or more 18 times. In this price range, the Packers are 8-9 ATS. But to show you why SU stats should not be emphasized, they are 2-9 ATS when losing the game SU (and of course 6-0 ATS when they win the game SU). But all that really matters is that they are 8-90 ATS when getting six points or more.
Now, let's take a look at how the Packers have fared when they lost the game SU, and the pointspread was not greater than plus 2 1/2. Green Bay was a favorite (and lost), or the team was an underdog of plus 2 1/2 or less. The Packers are 0-45 ATS in this pointspread range when they lost the game SU, but were favored in 38 of those losses (so it's impossible to cover those games). Green Bay was an underdog of 2 1/2 points or less in seven games. Lets face it, if you lose the game SU as an underdog of 2 1/2 points or less, you're NOT going to cover.
OK, that leaves us with the pointspread range of plus three to plus 5 1/2 (which Green Bay fell into against the Eagles in the playoff game). Since 1992, the Packers are 6-11 ATS when they lose the game SU with one push (at plus three) in this range.
So, in the Brett Favre era, the Packers are 14-20-1 ATS when they get three points or more and lose the game SU. But you can't ASSUME any team will lose. This is professional sports, not USA versus Iraq. What about all the times the Packers have pulled an upset. What about the 16 games that they've won outright as an underdog of plus three or more? When you say 'this team is 2-51 ATS when they lose the game SU,' then those wins don't count. So, in the case of Green Bay, you would throw out those 16 wins
as an underdog. You would also get 45 'free' wins for the games that the Packers lost outright as a favorite, or a dog of plus 2 1/2. When you add 45 + 16, that's 61 games to pad an 'ATS' statistic based on winning the game SU (that we know you can't assume). So, now that we have an idea of how much padding is involved in the Green Bay statistic. The Packers are 8-65 ATS since 1992 when they lose the game straight up, we can appreciate how meaningless it is.
Focus on ATS statistics in handicapping, such as Green Bay is 32-21 ATS since 1992 when getting three points or more. Good luck as always...Al McMordie
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