Editor’s Note: This is Part II of a four-part series by Jamie Tursini on future bets for the upcoming NFL season. Be sure to get all of his picks with analysis in his discounted season package!
Part I- Arizona | Part II-New England
New England Patriots 11 Wins
Head coach Bill Belichick and the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots have their work cut out for them. Gone are offensive and defensive co-coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, whose leadership skills will be missed more than anything.
Offensively, it all starts and ends with quarterback Tom Brady. What can you say about the guy that hasn't been said already? He's arguably the best at his position, period!
Running back Corey Dillon was everything that they hoped for in his first year as a Patriot, posting career highs in rushing yards (1,635) and touchdowns (12). He's backed up by Kevin Faulk, who is perfect in his role off the bench.
The wide receivers are a good bunch all around. Deion Branch is off a MVP performance in last year’s Super Bowl, while David Givens, Bethel Johnson, and veteran Troy Brown are all capable of making plays. This is one of the most underrated set of receivers in the league. Tight end Daniel Graham is a terrific blocker, and flashed his hands too by catching seven scores last year. Backup second year man Ben Watson showed flashes and is someone to keep an eye on.
The offensive line should be solid despite losing starting left guard Joe Andruzzi to free agency. Left tackle Matt Light and center Dan Koppen are good but not great. Right guard Stephen Neal who didn't play college ball, some say has the potential to be a great one. Right tackle Tom Ashworth returns after missing most of last season with a bad back. He fights it out with Brandon Gorin, who started in Ashworths' place last year. First round draft pick Logan Mankins will get a shot in camp.
The defensive line is loaded! Led by defensive ends Richard Seymour and Ty Warren this is the strongest position for the defending champs. Tackle Vince Wilfork has a chance to become one of the best in the game.
The linebackers have some question marks. Unfortunately due to a stroke, leader Ted Bruschi will sit out this season. Ted Johnson just recently made a surprise retirement announcement. Free agent acquisitions Chad Brown (who's seen his best days due to injuries) and Monte Beisel are being counted on heavily. Outside backers Willie McGinest (9.5 sacks) and Mike Vrabel are entering their 12th and 9th years respectively. Could we start to see a decline? This is not a deep position at all with the recent turn of events.
The secondary says goodbye to former Pro Bowl corner Ty Law, who signed with the division rival Jets. Free agent Duane Starks was brought in after a few injury-riddled seasons with the Arizona Cardinals. If healthy he could be an offseason steal. Tyrone Poole comes off a season ending injury himself. The often called “No-Names” from last season Randall Gay, and Asante Samuel contributed big time last year! This position should be in fine hands. Strong safety Pro Bowler Rodney Harrison just seems to get better with age and teaming up with Eugene Wilson and made up one of the best tandems in the league.
The special teams weren't really all that special in 2004. The overall coverage units despite being led by Pro Bowler Larry Izzo were very poor. Of course kicker Adam Vinatieri is arguably the best (31-33 Field Goal Attempts) in the league. They brought in free agent punter Josh Miller from Pittsburgh. The return game is led by Bethel Johnson, who finished fourth in the AFC in kick returns. And they brought in tough as nails wide receiver/return man Tim Dwight and Chad Morton to really upgrade this unit.
The schedule is the fourth toughest, and it shows. Four of the first six games are on the road, including tilts at Carolina, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Denver! Can we pencil in any of these as wins? Home matchups include San Diego and Indianapolis. Plus they play their division rival New York Jets twice in the last five weeks to close out the season.
In summary, I played the New England Patriots UNDER 11 wins at minus 140.
This team is talented, however I believe some key personnel and leaders will be missed. The schedule poses some problems, and I don't see this club winning twelve games.
