Editor’s Note: This is Part IV of a four-part series by Jamie Tursini on future bets for the upcoming NFL season. Be sure to get all of his picks with analysis in his discounted season package!
Part I- Arizona | Part II-New England | Part III- Seattle | Part IV-San Diego
San Diego Chargers--8.5 Wins
Head coach Marty Schottenheimer led the NFL's "biggest surprise" San Diego Chargers to a 12-4 season. They lost their opening playoff matchup at home to the N.Y.Jets 20-17 in overtime. They won't sneak up on anyone this season, will they?
Quarterback Drew Brees turned in a career year throwing for 3,159 yards, and 27 touchdowns. He earned a trip to the Pro Bowl, and has held off former first round pick Philip Rivers. Who may be elsewhere next season.
Running back LaDainian Tomlinson is arguably the best in football. In his short four year career he has almost 8,000 all-purpose yards, with 60 touchdowns.
Tight end Antonio Gates came from nowhere to immediately establish himself as one of the best at his position. He set a league record for touchdown receptions by a tight end (13). Wide receivers Keenan McCardell, Eric Parker, and Reche Caldwell all are capable. Caldwell was sidelined by a knee injury last season. He has big play ability if he can stay healthy. Parker led the wideouts last season with 47 catches for 690 yards and four touchdowns.
The offensive line featured an amazing five new starters last season! They allowed only 18 sacks, and were led by left tackle Roman Oben. Left guard Toniu Fonoti is flat out strong! He's a future Pro Bowler. Depth may be a problem here if there are any significant injuries.
Defensively the Chargers were led by coordinator Wade Philips. In his first season he implemented the 3-4 scheme, and this unit played like they've been running it for years.
The defensive line features one of the best kept secrets. Nose tackle Jamal Williams is tailor-made for the 3-4. Facing constant double teams, he still recorded four sacks. Rookie Luis Castillo provides nice depth here with his non-stop motor. Ends Igor Olshansky and Jacques Cesaire are solid versus the run. They do exactly what this scheme asks of them.
The linebackers are really the heart and soul here. Donnie Edwards (5
interceptions) and Randall Godfrey man the inside with speed and sure tackling ability. On the outside Steve Foley was a monster registering 10 sacks! First round pick Shawne Merriman will contribute one way or another as he gets acclimated to the NFL.
The secondary is a solid unit at best. Led by 2002 fifth pick overall Quentin Jammer, who appears ready to break through. Corners Drayton Florence or Sammy Davis will start the other side. The safeties will shake out between Terrance Keil, Bhawoh Jue, and Jerry Wilson. Keep an eye out on this unit.
The special teams were one of the strongest in the NFL. Punter Mike Scifries led the AFC in net average (38.4) and punts inside the 20 (29). Kicker Nate Kaeding hit 20-25 field goals, including three from 50-plus yards. Although he did miss a 40-yarder in the playoff loss to the Jets, that would have won the game.
The return unit won't have Tim Dwight and his play making ability. They'll rely on rookie Darren Sproles (Kansas State), or if he can't do the job possibly Eric Parker.
The Schedule is considered the seventh toughest based on last years records. They open the season hosting the Dallas Cowboys. Tight end Antonio Gates has been suspended for this one, and will be missed on offense. Other home matchups include the N.Y.Giants, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Miami and of course their division rivals. On the road San Diego looks to have a tough task. At New England, Philly, N.Y.Jets and Indianapolis are four tough tests throughout the season.
That all being said I like the San Diego Chargers OVER 8.5 wins plus 110.
I think they are the best team in the AFC West. They have the best running back, with all due respect to Priest Holmes and the best defense in the division, plus going up against weak units in Oakland, Denver and Kansas City. Did we mention the best quarterback? Drew Brees was not a one year wonder. Trent Green is good, Jake Plummer and Kerry Collins are as up and down as you can get at the position.
I see this team winning 10 games en route to a second consecutive division title.
Play: OVER 8.5 wins +110
