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Just about everyone is familiar with team “Power Ratings”.
Allow me to introduce you to my NFL “Power Rating Totals”. I’ve designed a set of home/away numbers for each NFL team. I’m able to combine and adjust them based on performance each week throughout the season, so I may find value in playing totals.
These numbers are based on a calculation I designed, going back a certain number of years for each club. Taking coaches, and players into consideration. And I give a “weighted percentage” grade for total scores both home and away. The process is repeated with a different “weighted percentage” over a certain number of times. Once finished, the “PRT’s” are ready for the season.
Keep in mind that these are “hard” numbers. We must take injuries, and weather into consideration ourselves.
For example: If a starting quarterback is out for a game. You must decide how many points is he actually worth to his team.
Week 1 for 2006 is a perfect example. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was out as the Steelers hosted Miami. Veteran Charlie Batch started.
The “Power Rating Total” for this match-up was 41 (we can expect a total of 41 point to be scored).
The game opened at 37 before Big Ben had emergency surgery. The total closed at 34. Not a dramatic drop-off was it?
Were the odds makers saying that Ben is only worth a field goal more than Charlie Batch? Pittsburgh won 28-17.
It’s up to you to decide these things.
Week 3’s NFL “Power Rating Totals”
N.Y. Jets/Buffalo 36
Cincinnati/Pittsburgh 45
Jacksonville/Indianapolis 42
Tennessee/Miami 36.5
Washington/Houston 36.5
Chicago/Minnesota 37
Carolina/Tampa Bay 37.5
Green Bay/Detroit 44
Baltimore/Cleveland 35
St. Louis/Arizona 42.5
N.Y. Giants/Seattle 44
Philadelphia/San Francisco 42
Denver/New England 41
Kansas City/Denver 40
Atlanta/New Orleans 49
We’re looking for a minimum difference of at least 3 points between the “PRT’s” and the betting total to consider a play.
