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Beyond the Box Scores
October 17, 2006
By Keith Fredrick
VegasInsider.com
E very Monday people across the country scan the local paper or the Internet to see the boxscores of all the NFL games. Some are trying to see how their fantasy football team did; others are looking for edges to make a few bucks the traditional way the next week. I am in the latter category, and seeing as how I make my living as a sports handicapper, my look inside those boxscores in pretty detailed, and typically propels me to examine things further in my efforts to get ready for the next week. Not every team will have a note all the time, but each week I will share the fruits of that extra examination as I go Beyond The Boxscore in the NFL.
Atlanta - Until last week the Falcons had not allowed a second half touchdown all season, so when Warrick Dunn ripped off that 90 yard TD run to put the team up 13-3 backers everywhere had to feel quite comfortable. However, the Giants scored 24 second half points and got three touchdowns. Falcons face a completely different style of offense this week so it will be interesting to see how they respond, especially with three members of the defensive line ailing…
Buffalo - Never really thought much of Dick Jauron as a Head Coach, as his only good year in Chicago was a 13-3 season in which everything that could go right did. However, I think even less of him now that his new team, the Bills, has lost back to back games against teams Jauron coached of late. The loss to the Bears, while I thought the game would be closer, was understandable, but losing to a Lions team that he coached for five games last season, and was winless coming in, was a disgrace. He should have been able to help his new team exploit the weaknesses of the players he had recently coached, but that was not the case at all. Nothing fluky about the result either, as the Lions had a 394-242 yardage edge….
Carolina - No accident that the team is 4-0 this season when it has the services of WR Steve Smith. Counting the playoffs, Cats are 17-6 SU when Smith plays and just 7-11 when he does not. This week's game against the Bengals will mark the first time this season Carolina plays an upper level offense without Dan Morgan, so it will be interesting to see how they respond…
Cincinnati - Carson Palmer has to be licking his chops seeing as how Kyle Boller threw for 226 against the Panthers last week. With that said, Bengals have scored just 13 points in back to back weeks, with the offensive line being in flux both times, and an unsettled OL is not a good idea against a team with Julius Peppers on it…
Cleveland - Browns have scored more than 20 points just twice for Romeo Crennel and embattled offensive coordinator Mo Carthon, and now have the "pleasure" of facing a Denver defense that is playing better than any defense since the 1930's….
Denver - Not sure why Al Michaels felt the need to say it, what, five times, during the telecast Sunday Night, but this Denver defense has allowed just one TD this season, and that was when it was in prevent defense mode. A few years back Brian Billick, the supposed offensive genius, played conservative all season and let his defense win him a Super Bowl. It appears Mike Shanahan might be taking a similar tack this year with the Broncos. Jason Elam has outscored the rest of the team 32-30 so far this season. Detroit - Even with last week's win, Jon Kitna is now just 37-48 SU as an NFL starter…
Houston - Yep, Mario Williams is sure making Texans fans forget about Reggie Bush. Wasn’t' the plan for him to help make the defense have teeth? Houston has allowed 30 or more three times this season and has held only one team below 20 points…
Kansas City - Two wins against teams that are now 3-8 combined with the 4-1 Chargers coming to town this week…
Miami - At the end of last week's loss to the Jets in which an Olindo Mare 51 potential game tying FG attempt just missed, coach Nick Saban was clearly shown saying into his headphones: "My Fault." Yes, Nick it is your fault when a team many thought was a playoff lock is stuck in the mud with a 1-5 record. Saban found the magic button last year, but with players saying they are one of the worst teams in the league, have to wonder if Saban can pull them out from the doldrums again…
New England - Almost not fair to give Bill Belichick two weeks to "prepare" for JP Losman. Maybe he had a good Sudoku book…
New Orleans - No way to say this team is not for real anymore. They were simply toying with a proud Eagles defense in the final five minutes last week, and the season finale against Carolina is starting to look more and more important. With all the distractions last season it made sense that the Saints were often penalized a season ago, but give Sean Payton credit in that, even with last week's season high seven penalty showing, the Saints have committed 23 less infractions this year than they had at this point in the 2005 season.
NY Giants - Many, myself included, thought the defense would struggle against Mike Vick last week, as there is not a great deal of overall speed on the Giant stop unit. However, Big Blue ended up with seven sacks and only allowed 329 total yards, 90 of those coming on one play…
NY Jets - Greenies are 3-0 SU and ATS against losing teams this year and 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS vs teams with winning records and face Detroit and Cleveland next, meaning 5-3 is fairly likely, and that is impressive seeing as how this team won just four games a season ago…
Oakland - Actually outgained the Broncos last week but two key turnovers in the scoring zone and a preposterous 13 penalties for 95 yards were the difference in the game. Art Shell was able to get his team to play smart football the last time he coached here, but it clearly is not happening this season.
Philadelphia - Donovan McNabb has thrown just one interception is his last 207 pass attempts but is facing two pretty tough defenses the next two weeks in the Bucs and Jags...
Pittsburgh - It is games like last week that restore the team's confidence in Ben Roethlisberger. After starting the season with an 0-3 record and an 0-7 TD/Int ratio Big Ben last week hit 16 of 19 passes in Pittsburgh's demolition of the Chiefs…
St Louis - Rams came back to post three straight wins after their only previous SU loss this season but that will be a tough task as four good teams await after this week's bye. QB Marc Bulger has thrown just one interception in his last 253 pass attempts, a big departure from his freewheeling days under Mike Martz. Pending the Bears' result on Monday Night, Rams are tied with the Saints for the best ATS record in the league at 5-1…
Tampa Bay - Last three games decided by a total of six points…
Tennessee - Last week's win kept alive a very interesting stat for Vince Young, as it prevented him from dropping a third straight game as a starting QB for the first time in his football career…ever, pee wee to the NFL.
Washington - Although 2-4 and with a game at Indy up next, all is not lost for this team, as remember the Redskins were 4-7 at one point last year and still made the playoffs.
That will do it for this week's edition of Beyond the Boxscore. I am 8-3 on my last 11 Guaranteed NFL plays and will have another big NFL Pay After You Win selection this Sunday. Have a great week!
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