Just about everyone is familiar with team “Power Ratings”.
These are my NFL “Power Rating Totals”. I’ve designed a set of home/away numbers for each NFL team. I’m able to combine and adjust them based on performance each week throughout the season, so I may find the value in playing totals.
These numbers are based on a calculation I designed, going back a certain number of years for each club. Taking coaches, and players into consideration. I give a “weighted percentage” grade for total scores both home and away. The process is repeated with a different “weighted percentage” over a certain number of times. Once finished, the “PRT’s” are ready for the season.
The final “PRT” for each game represents the total amount of points we can expect to be scored for each matchup.
Keep in mind that these are “hard” numbers. We must take injuries, and weather into consideration ourselves.
For example: If a starting quarterback is out for a game. You must decide how many points is he actually worth to his team.
Week 1 for 2006 is a perfect example. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was out as the Steelers hosted Miami. Veteran Charlie Batch started.
The “Power Rating Total” (before the injury) for this match-up was 41 (we can expect a total of 41 point to be scored).
The game opened at 37 before Big Ben had emergency surgery. The total closed at 34. Not a dramatic drop-off was it?
Were the odds makers saying that Ben is only worth a field goal more than Charlie Batch? Pittsburgh won 28-17.
It’s up to you to decide these things.
Here’s Week 11’s NFL “Power Rating Totals”
Oakland/Kansas City 44
Indianapolis/Dallas 47.5
Cincinnati/New Orleans 44
Pittsburgh/Cleveland 35.5
Tennessee/Philadelphia 41.5
Atlanta/Baltimore 40
St. Louis/Carolina 41.5
Buffalo/Houston 39.5
New England/Green Bay 44
Washington/Tampa Bay 38.5
Chicago/N.Y. Jets 41.5
Minnesota/Miami 37.5
Detroit/Arizona 43.5
Seattle/San Francisco 44.5
San Diego/Denver 42.5
N.Y. Giants/Jacksonville 41.5
We’re looking for a minimum difference of at least 3 points between the “PRT’s” and the betting total to consider a play. Here are the records:
Record based on Point-Difference:
3.0 to 3.5 17-7-1
4.0 to 4.5 13-6-2
5.0 to 5.5 3-6
6.0 to 6.5 2-2
7.0 to 7.5 1-2
8.0 to 8.5 2-0-1
9 and up 0-1
38-24-4 61%
