Just about everyone is familiar with team “Power Ratings”.
These are my NFL “Power Rating Totals”. I’ve designed a set of home/away numbers for each NFL team. I’m able to combine and adjust them based on performance each week throughout the season, so I may find the value in playing totals.
These numbers are based on a calculation I designed, going back a certain number of years for each club. Taking coaches, and players into consideration. I give a “weighted percentage” grade for total scores both home and away. The process is repeated with a different “weighted percentage” over a certain number of times. Once finished, the “PRT’s” are ready for the season.
The final “PRT” for each game represents the total amount of points we can expect to be scored for each matchup.
Keep in mind that these are “hard” numbers. We must take injuries, and weather into consideration ourselves.
For example: If a starting quarterback is out for a game. You must decide how many points is he actually worth to his team.
Week 1 for 2006 is a perfect example. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was out as the Steelers hosted Miami. Veteran Charlie Batch started.
The “Power Rating Total” (before the injury) for this match-up was 41 (we can expect a total of 41 point to be scored).
The game opened at 37 before Big Ben had emergency surgery. The total closed at 34. Not a dramatic drop-off was it?
Were the odds makers saying that Ben is only worth a field goal more than Charlie Batch? Pittsburgh won 28-17.
It’s up to you to decide these things.
Here’s the record for the “PRT’s” against the average closing line only. Not the opening numbers.
Over/Under Difference
3.0 to 3.5 21-9-1
4.0 to 4.5 13-7-2
5.0 to 5.5 5-6
6.0 to 6.5 2-2
7.0 to 7.5 2-2
8.0 to 8.5 2-1-1
9.0 and up 0-1
Overall Record 45-27-4 62.5%
Week 13’s NFL “Power Rating Totals”
Baltimore/Cincinnati 43.5
Minnesota/Chicago 37
Tampa Bay/Pittsburgh 35
Arizona/St. Louis 45
Indianapolis/Tennessee 48.5
Jacksonville/Miami 38.5
San Francisco/New Orleans 44.5
Atlanta/Washington 40.5
Kansas City/Cleveland 39
Detroit/New England 41
San Diego/Buffalo 44.5
N.Y. Jets/Green Bay 40
Dallas/N.Y. Giants 41
Houston/Oakland 38.5
Seattle/Denver 41.5
Carolina/Philadelphia 40.5
We’re looking for a minimum difference of at least 3 points between the “PRT’s” and the betting total to consider a play.
