This weekend I’m sure many of you have a fantasy football draft on your schedule. We don’t focus on fantasy football advising for our business but obviously the knowledge comes with the territory so here are some thoughts on the upcoming season and hopefully some things that can help you as you line up your team.

There are a couple basics in fantasy football and they can not be overlooked. Everyone knows running back is the most critical position and it will be even more so this season as many teams are shifting to a two running back tandem for the 2007 season. The starting running back on teams that appear to focusing on a single, featured back system will have more value. Both Super Bowl teams from last season successfully used running back duos with the Bears riding Thomas Jones (1,210 yards) and Cedric Benson (647 yards) and the Colts using Joseph Addai (1,081 yards) and Dominic Rhodes (641 yards) which will only increase the likelihood that more teams will use multiple backs. Ten teams had two backs with 500 or more yards last season and that should be common situation again this season. Ironically both the Bears and the Colts lost one of their prized running backs and may have a greater workload for the #1 back this season.

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The running backs are still the most critical pieces of your team and you need a very good reason to not take running backs with both your first and second round picks. It is very likely that a few elite quarterbacks and wide receivers will go in the first two rounds but it is very hard to justify waiting to pick up your second running back past the second round. The gap between the top tier running backs and the backs that will rank outside the top 15 is enormous. The difference in average scoring from the top ten running backs, versus the backs that finished ranking 11-20 last season was nearly a touchdown per week, which is dramatically more than the difference at quarterback or especially wide receiver.

The teams that pull in LaDainian Tomlinson or a player like Larry Johnson have a big advantage in getting great consistent production but you can do just as well by pulling two #1 backs in the late first round and early second round. Last season Tomlinson had a simply incredible season and if he was on your team and you failed to win your league, you have some serious questions to answer. Tomlinson was on average over four points per game superior to last season’s #2 back Steven Jackson. In most seasons a team with two backs ranking in the 7-12 range will be right on pace with a team with one of the top three backs and a back that ranks around 20th or so. Last season a tandem of Frank Gore and Willie Parker, two backs that were generally available in the second round or later would have vastly out-performed a duo of Larry Johnson or Steven Jackson paired with an average running back or even some highly drafted backs like Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis, Julius Jones or Shaun Alexander. So there is no reason to panic if you are drafting late in the first round. Do not feel the need to get a marquee quarterback or an elite wide receiver to compensate for missing the top running backs. You are still better off taking the best two rushers available.

It is not that difficult to find a productive quarterback, as several quarterbacks that were not drafted high (if at all) were solid producers last season. Philip Rivers and Jon Kitna were both top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points last season. Vince Young and Tony Romo emerged to be highly productive. Drew Brees, who was only out-classed by Peyton Manning at the quarterback position, was likely widely available in the middle rounds of most drafts last season. You may be able to justify an early pick on Manning but there will be too many drafts with players reaching for Tom Brady or Marc Bulger in the first round. Quarterbacks are also huge injury risks as well and you are better off spending your top pick on a more reliable player. It is important to consider snapping up the best available QB with your third round selection however, rather than going after a big name wide receiver.

Wide receivers are the biggest traps in fantasy football. It is great to have a guy like Marvin Harrison or Steve Smith in your lineup for consistent production and the occasional huge game but the difference between the elite receivers and the middle-of-the-pack receivers is not that significant. In 2006 the average weekly scoring from the top ten receivers was only 1.9 points higher than the average weekly scoring of the next ten ranked receivers. Harrison was the #1 fantasy receiver last season, averaging about 14 point per game. The 20th ranked fantasy receiver was Terry Glenn, who pulled in about 10 points per game on average. Is four points per game worth spending a first or second round pick to get Harrison? Last season 35 receivers averaged at least 7 points per game and there will always be quality receivers that emerge on the free agent market. It is foolish to go after a big-name receiver unless you already have two quality running backs and a quarterback you can count on.

Rookie wide receivers are an even greater risk as very few rookies post standout receiving numbers. Anquan Boldin and Marques Colston are rare exceptions and recall that neither of them were high-draft picks in the NFL or any fantasy draft. Someone is going to grab Calvin Johnson way too early, don’t let it be you. Rookie running backs are going to go a bit too early as well but they are a bit more justifiable. Taking Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch to be your third running back might be worth the risk as the upside is there is a precedent for rookie RB success.

Best of Luck with your drafts, we will try to continue to post some fantasy material on this site throughout the season.

*The individual player point totals and rankings cited in this article are based on the standard scoring system at Yahoo, one of the most common free public fantasy leagues.

Fantasy Sleepers:
Jay Cutler QB – Denver Broncos: Cutler may not qualify as a sleeper as everyone knows about him but few may be willing to pull the trigger on him to be a #1 QB. He inherits a consistently successful offense on a good team and Denver has a favorable schedule this season. Cutler figures to be about the 15th QB taken in most drafts which could mean a late round steal much like AFC West counterpart Philip Rivers was last season. Cutler will likely be drafted after bigger name players like Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Tony Romo but we project him to have the best season of that group.

Chester Taylor RB – Minnesota Vikings: Taylor has been injured and will not see much time in the preseason but despite a career season last year, most fantasy players expect him to take a back seat to the rookie Peterson. Taylor will still be the starter and in a Minnesota offense that will run the ball and focus on low-risk passing with an unproven quarterback should still lead to highly productive rushing numbers for both backs. Taylor would be a great back to have on the roster and he will likely be available in the middle to late rounds. Taylor was picked very early in most drafts last season and did nothing to prove he didn’t deserve it.

Travis Henry RB - Denver Broncos: Henry is exactly the type of reliable and durable back that the Broncos have lacked in recent seasons when they rushed by committee with a cycle of several players in the past few seasons including Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, and Mike Bell. A knee sprain in the preseason may scare off some suitors on draft day but Henry could have a huge year for a very good Broncos team. Henry is not exactly a true ‘sleeper’ but he could end up a steal as a second-round or later selection.

Brandon Jackson RB – Green Bay Packers: With presumed incumbent Vernand Morency injured for most of the pre-season the second round pick from Nebraska has seen the bulk of the carries and has done nothing to play out of the starting position. His blocking skills will likely determine if he can play full-time and the Packers are likely to be a pass-first offense but Jackson could be a starting running back that will be available very late in most drafts.

Mike Furrey WR – Detroit Lions: Furrey was the ultimate sleeper last season, as only perhaps his relatives or the most loyal Lions fans would have had him even on the draft board. This season Furrey still figures to hang around late into the draft as many perceive him to be a fluke likely to be supplanted by rookie Johnson. Furrey had 98 receptions last season and in a Mike Martz offense there are plenty of balls to go around. Roy Williams has already had injury issues this preseason so it could be another huge year for Furrey assuming his knee issue is not serious.

Adrian Peterson RB – Chicago Bears: The ‘other’ Adrian Peterson will get drafted first but Bears back-up should see plenty of carries. Last season Cedric Benson had some success in tandem with Thomas Jones and the Bears are likely to refrain from putting the entire load on one player. Peterson had nearly 400 yards rushing in 2005 and he could post decent numbers after very limited action last season.