Professor Edwin F. Meyer started handicapping on VegasInsider.com in the 2006 pro basketball season. Ed's success in trend analysis has been remarkable and he continues this season in the NFL. His selections can be purchased this season on VI. Click to win!
Ed recently spoke at the VegasInsider.com Football Handicapping Seminar, analyzing NFL systems and team trends for the upcoming 2007 season. Be sure to listen here to the complete breakdown and check out all the angles below.
Ten Sample NFL Systems
Chosen because they are interesting and because they demonstrate the depth and breadth to which the NFL statistical results can be investigated.
Sample NFL System #1
When two teams over 500 meet, the home team is 26-0 ATS (+10.6 ppg) since 1989* when they've averaged 30+ rushes per game year-to-date and their opponent has averaged at least 4 sacks per game year-to-date as long as they are not laying a TD or more (3-0 ATS last season).
Sample NFL System #2
The league is 14-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) when the line is within 6 of pick at home after a home win in which they were outscored by double-digits in the second half (2-0 ATS last season).
Sample NFL System #3
The league is 0-20 ATS (-11.3 ppg) as a home favorite of more than six points on Sunday vs a non-divisional opponent when they rushed for at least 150 yards in each of their last two games and won them both - as long as both games weren't on the road and they are not off their bye week (0-2 ATS last season).
Sample NFL System #4
The league is 0-15 ATS (-10.3 ppg) the week after a game as an away dog of more than a TD in which they committed 100+ yards of penalties (0-1 ATS last season).
Sample NFL System #5
The league is 15-0 ATS (+9.1 ppg) when they are off their bye and their last game was a 1-4 point loss as a 1-4 point favorite ( 1-0 ATS last season).
Sample NFL System #6
The league is 0-13 ATS (-13.5 ppg) in week 1 as a favorite of greater than 3 and fewer than 7 points over a non-divisional opponent who they had a better record than the previous season, when their next game is versus a divisional opponent (0-1 ATS last season).
Sample NFL System #7
The league is 0-14 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since 1989* in their second game of the season when they are off a loss of more than 21 points in the opener in which they gained fewer than 2.77 yards per carry -- (0-1 ATS last season).
Sample NFL System #8
The league is 0-18 ATS (-12.8 ppg) on Sunday vs a conference opponent in their third game of the season when they lost their opener by 1-4 points and then lost game two by at least a FG (0-1 ATS last season).
Sample NFL System #9's
Teams with a 4-0 record are 0-5 ATS (-20.9 ppg) since 1992 as a 7+ point favorite vs a divisional opponent (0-1 last season).
The league is 4-0 ATS (+16.1 ppg) since 1992 as a 7+ home dog when they just won their first game of the season after at least four losses (1-0 last season).
Teams that are 1-1 on the season are 19-2 ATS since 1993 as an away dog by less than a FG.
Teams that are 0-2 are 4-19 ATS since 1991 when favored by 1-4 points.
The league is 0-13 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since 1989 as a home favorite in game four when they won their first game of the season last week to get to 1-2.
The league is 0-13 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since 1989 as a dog of seven points or less vs a divisional opponent off a loss last week that dropped them to 2-4 on the season.
The league is 0-3 ATS (-21.5 ppg) since 1996 vs a non-divisional opponent after two losses that dropped them to 7-7.
Sample NFL System #10
The League is 0-19 OU (-12.3 ppg) as a road 5+ dog when they won and covered their last three games (0-3 OU last season).
Some Team Trend Examples
Chosen because they are interesting and because they demonstrate the depth and breadth to which the NFL statistical results can be investigated.
Team Trend Example #1
The Cardinals are 13-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick at home when they lost and failed to cover their last two games.
Team Trend Example #2
The Saints are 13-0 ATS (+10.9 ppg) as a favorite after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average.
Team Trend Example #3
The Falcons are 0-11 ATS (-16.8 ppg) as a dog when they won by 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent.
Team Trend Example #4
The Eagles are 11-0 ATS (+9.2 ppg) when they allowed at least 100 more yards passing last week than their season-to-date average.
Team Trend Example #5
The Cowboys are 0-11 ATS (-10.8 ppg) the week after a home game in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average.
Team Trend Example #6
The Raiders are 0-11 ATS (-9.7 ppg) at home when they got swept last week.
Team Trend Example #7
The Redskins are 0-10 ATS (-12.4 ppg) as a home dog when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2.
Team Trend Example #8
The Chiefs are 10-0 ATS (+14.5 ppg) at home when they are off a double-digit win as a favorite in which they were ahead by at least a TD at the half.
Team Trend Example #9
The Bengals are 10-0 ATS (+14.8 ppg) the week after a loss at home in which they were ahead by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter.
Team Trend Example #10
The Giants are 16-0 ATS (+10.5 ppg) on the road when their ATS margin increased over each of their past two games.
Team Trend Example #11
The Rams are 14-0 OU (+13.8 ppg) as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date.
Team Trend Example #12
The Falcons are 15-0 OU (+16.4 ppg) as a dog the week after a road game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays.
Team Trend Example #13
The Jets are 0-16 OU (-11.0 ppg) as a 3+ road dog versus a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.
Team Trend Example #14
The Ravens are 0-13 OU (-12.0 ppg) as a road dog when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2.
Team Trend Example #15
The Dolphins are 0-13 OU (-10.4 ppg) at home when facing a team that has allowed less than 55% completions season-to-date.
Team Trend Example #16
The Bears are 0-12 OU (-14.6 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick versus a team that has forced an average of fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.
Team Trend Example #17
The Steelers are 0-11 OU (-12.0 ppg) as a road dog when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record.
Team Trend Example #18
The Jets are 0-11 OU (-13.9 ppg) the week after a game in which they punted at least eight times.
Team Trend Example #19
The Chargers are 11-0 OU (+17.8 ppg) as a dog the week after a road game in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
Team Trend Example #20
The Bears are 0-10 OU (-8.0 ppg) off a loss in which they had at least 14 offensive drives.
