Unlike the rest of the NFL season, Week 1 numbers get put up more than a week in advance. The result is plenty of line movement.
That’s the case again this season. The biggest early move has come on the Detroit Lions-Oakland Raiders total going from 36 ½ to 39 ½.
The linesmaker may not have initially realized just how bad this Detroit secondary is especially after losing free safety Daniel Bullocks for the season.
But can Oakland improve on its pitiful 12-touchdown performance of a year ago? Heck, LaDainian Tomlinson scored 19 more touchdowns than the Raiders did.
Senior oddsmaker Mike Seba of Las Vegas Sports Consultants doesn’t think so.
“A lot of that is based on preseason,” Seba said about the three-point move on the Lions-Raiders total. “The regular season will be different. Oakland will be a dead ‘under’ team.”
Another big move has come on the Kansas City Chiefs-Houston Texans matchup with the Texans going from minus 1 to minus 3.
“When we put up this line a month ago we were thinking pick’em,” Seba said. “But Kansas City has looked terrible and Houston’s looked good.”
Seba is surprised Jacksonville has gone from minus 5 ½ up to 6 ½ hosting Tennessee. Apparently there are bettors who believe David Garrard is a quarterback upgrade on Byron Leftwich.
“I wouldn’t want to give Vince Young those types of points,” Seba said.
The LVSC oddsmakers made a 4 1/2-point adjustment on Michael Vick not playing in the Atlanta Falcons-Minnesota Vikings matchup. If Vick would have been in the lineup, Seba said, LVSC would have opened the Falcons minus 1 ½. The Vikings currently are 3-point home favorites.
The Falcons-Vikings ‘over/under’ is 36. But this could be the first time certain gamblers shy away from going ‘over’ a total less than 37 in a dome stadium between two dome teams. Don’t be shocked if this total dips below 36.
It’s rare to find a defensive player causing oddsmaker’s to make an adjustment in their number, but that’s the case with star defensive tackle Richard Seymour being out for New England.
Seba said Seymour is worth half-a-point in the line. The combination of Seymour being out and safety Rodney Harrison being suspended is worth a full point in the line, Seba said.
Despite this, those betting early favor New England laying 6 ½ on the road against the New York Jets. The line had even reached 7 on Monday at a couple of offshore books.
The line is rising, too, in the New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys Sunday night ESPN game going from Dallas minus 4 to minus 5 ½ and 6.
“The Giants have a horrific situation,” Seba said. “The players hate (Tom) Coughlin. I could see this line getting higher.”
Baltimore has drawn early play for its Monday night road game against Cincinnati. The Bengals opened 3-point favorites. They are now down to minus 2 ½ at some books.
Seba likes the Bengals – but only if they are laying less than a field goal.
“There has never been a more perfect 3 than this game,” he said. “If it goes below 3, you lay it. If it goes above 3 then it’s a take.”
As for the other Monday night game, Arizona being 3-point road underdogs to San Francisco, you’d have to be seriously addicted to gambling to get involved in that crazy matchup.
