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Preseason is NOT meaningless
September 6, 2007
By Keith Fredrick
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Keith Fredrick selections and analysis can be purchased on VegasInsider.com this football season. Be sure to visit Keith's bio page for more informative views and winning selections. Click to win!
Many folks, mistakenly in this view, completely disavow preseason results when handicapping regular season NFL games. Sure, it is not top level football, and it is especially galling in Week 4 as the starters make nothing more than a cameo appearance to somewhat appease the ticket buyers who have paid full NFL prices to see at times afl2 talent. However, in an effort to really learn some things from the practice games, I always take a look at how teams starters have fared, as of course those are the players that will be deciding the "real" games.
Before I get to the chart, let me explain how I arrived at the data. Unless a team significantly deviated from the time honored tradition of playing the starters for one quarter in the first game, the first half of the second, and three quarters of the third, I have tabulated the combined results of WHEN THE STARTERS WERE IN THE GAME for all 32 teams. Some teams played four games, and some played starters longer and when that is the case the numbers reflect it, but for the most part this is an examination of how well the starters for each team have done in the six quarters they have played against other starters this preseason.
Here is the chart, in alphabetical order:
| 2007 Preseason Data for Starters |
| Team |
Points For |
Points Against |
Difference |
| Arizona |
14 |
26 |
-12 |
|
Atlanta |
37 |
23 |
14 |
| Baltimore |
21 |
26 |
-5 |
|
Buffalo |
36 |
20 |
16 |
|
Carolina |
37 |
27 |
10 |
| Chicago |
38 |
26 |
12 |
| Cincinnati |
17 |
37 |
-20 |
| Cleveland |
17 |
33 |
-16 |
|
Dallas |
17 |
16 |
1 |
|
Denver |
37 |
31 |
6 |
| Detroit |
16 |
28 |
-12 |
| Giants |
33 |
21 |
12 |
| Green Bay |
10 |
37 |
-27 |
| Houston |
17 |
24 |
-7 |
| Indy |
27 |
41 |
-14 |
| Jets |
35 |
30 |
5 |
| Jacksonville |
20 |
26 |
-6 |
| Kansas City |
20 |
7 |
13 |
| Miami |
7 |
38 |
-31 |
| Minnesota |
44 |
38 |
6 |
| New England |
44 |
19 |
25 |
| New Orleans |
25 |
45 |
-20 |
| Oakland |
36 |
18 |
18 |
| Philly |
44 |
24 |
20 |
| Pitt |
34 |
17 |
17 |
|
San Diego |
38 |
30 |
8 |
|
San Fran |
20 |
23 |
-3 |
| Seattle |
34 |
27 |
7 |
| St Louis |
42 |
44 |
-2 |
| Tampa |
27 |
13 |
14 |
| Tennessee |
26 |
34 |
-8 |
| Washington |
27 |
31 |
-4 | |
I will break down other aspects of this chart soon, but before I do it is noteworthy to point out that only four teams were tied or winning in all their preseason games when the starters left. Those four were Indianapolis (1-0-3), Oakland (3-0-1), Atlanta, and interestingly Houston, whose starters were 4-0 in the preseason. The Falcons and Raiders each placed a great deal of importance on playing well in an effort to build a winning attitude, so it will be interesting to see if that carries over to the regular season. I think it will for the Falcons and will not for the Raiders, but the proof will be in the pudding.
At the other end of the spectrum, there were three teams trailing in all games with the top units on the field, and one other that went 1-2-1 but really should have been 0-3-1. The three winless teams were Carolina (0-2-2), Buffalo (0-3-1), and Denver (0-4). Also, the Vikings were 1-2-1 but in reality should have been 0-3-1 as their starters were dominated by the Jets but had two long defensive scores to give them wins.
Here is another chart showing how important this information is:
| For Against Differential |
| Team |
For |
Against |
Differential |
| NEW ENGLAND |
41 |
14 |
27 |
| INDIANAPOLIS |
47 |
23 |
24 |
| PITTSBURGH |
36 |
13 |
23 |
| OAKLAND |
41 |
19 |
22 |
| ATLANTA |
44 |
23 |
21 |
| HOUSTON |
37 |
23 |
14 |
| JACKSONVILLE |
38 |
24 |
14 |
| WASHINGTON |
27 |
13 |
14 |
| NEW ORLEANS |
30 |
19 |
11 |
| DALLAS |
40 |
30 |
10 |
| CHICAGO |
48 |
38 |
10 |
| SAN DIEGO |
44 |
34 |
10 |
| GREEN BAY |
55 |
47 |
8 |
| TENNESEE |
38 |
34 |
4 |
| BALTIMORE |
27 |
27 |
0 |
| PHILADELPHIA |
30 |
30 |
0 |
| CLEVELAND |
25 |
26 |
-1 |
| ARIZONA |
37 |
40 |
-3 |
| NY GIANTS |
33 |
36 |
-3 |
| MINNESOTA |
37 |
43 |
-6 |
| MIAMI |
24 |
31 |
-7 |
| NY JETS |
34 |
42 |
-8 |
| SEATTLE |
43 |
51 |
-8 |
| CINCINNATI |
31 |
41 |
-10 |
| DETROIT |
22 |
33 |
-11 |
| KANSAS CITY |
7 |
22 |
-15 |
| SAN FRANCISCO |
36 |
55 |
-19 |
| TAMPA BAY |
24 |
45 |
-21 |
| BUFFALO |
13 |
37 |
-24 |
| ST LOUIS |
9 |
34 |
-25 |
| DENVER |
23 |
54 |
-31 |
| CAROLINA |
17 |
55 |
-38 | |
Each of the top three teams on this list are Super Bowl contenders, with fellow Super Bowl possibilities Dallas, Chicago and San Diego also in the Positive Differential Category.
I already touched on the Oakland and Atlanta situation, and the 4-0 record and point differential seems to show that 2007 could be a very good year for the Texans. Flipping things around, a -19 score shows that maybe the off season hype surrounding the Niners is off base, and the -31 tally of the Broncos is quite surprising. There is one other stat I want to point out, and while it will take more than just two years of data to see if this is a trend or just a quirk, it is interesting that the teams with the best and worst differentials in this chart the last two seasons are 4-0 ATS in the opening week of the regular season.
The next chart shows just offensive production, as it shows the amount of points the starters have scored:
| Points For |
| Team |
Points For |
| GREEN BAY |
55 |
| CHICAGO |
48 |
| INDIANAPOLIS |
47 |
| ATLANTA |
44 |
| SAN DIEGO |
44 |
| SEATTLE |
43 |
| NEW ENGLAND |
41 |
| OAKLAND |
41 |
| DALLAS |
40 |
| JACKSONVILLE |
38 |
| TENNESEE |
38 |
| HOUSTON |
37 |
| ARIZONA |
37 |
| MINNESOTA |
37 |
| PITTSBURGH |
36 |
| SAN FRANCISCO |
36 |
| NY JETS |
34 |
| NY GIANTS |
33 |
| CINCINNATI |
31 |
| NEW ORLEANS |
30 |
| PHILADELPHIA |
30 |
| WASHINGTON |
27 |
| BALTIMORE |
27 |
| CLEVELAND |
25 |
| MIAMI |
24 |
| TAMPA BAY |
24 |
| DENVER |
23 |
| DETROIT |
22 |
| CAROLINA |
17 |
| BUFFALO |
13 |
| ST LOUIS |
9 |
| KANSAS CITY |
7 | |
Green Bay takes the top spot, but it is notable that their starters did play two more quarters than most every other team. That gives the best scoring numbers, at least average wise, to the Bears, and that is something few would have expected! The Colts were next, with Atlanta being the only surprise among the top six in average. Looking at the offenses, have to wonder what is in the water of the Missouri River, as the Chiefs and the Rams had the lowest output among the starters. For the Rams, they were probably just being conservative, but the Chiefs WERE TRYING TO SCORE, and still managed just one TD from the starters.
Finally, a look at how the defenses fared, showing the team name and the amount of points the starters allowed:
| Points Allowed |
| Team |
Points Allowed |
| PITTSBURGH |
13 |
| WASHINGTON |
13 |
| NEW ENGLAND |
14 |
| OAKLAND |
19 |
| NEW ORLEANS |
19 |
| KANSAS CITY |
22 |
| INDIANAPOLIS |
23 |
| ATLANTA |
23 |
| HOUSTON |
23 |
| JACKSONVILLE |
24 |
| CLEVELAND |
26 |
| BALTIMORE |
27 |
| DALLAS |
30 |
| PHILADELPHIA |
30 |
| MIAMI |
31 |
| DETROIT |
33 |
| SAN DIEGO |
34 |
| TENNESEE |
34 |
| ST LOUIS |
34 |
| NY GIANTS |
36 |
| BUFFALO |
37 |
| CHICAGO |
38 |
| ARIZONA |
40 |
| CINCINNATI |
41 |
| NY JETS |
42 |
| MINNESOTA |
43 |
| TAMPA BAY |
45 |
| GREEN BAY |
47 |
| SEATTLE |
51 |
| DENVER |
54 |
| SAN FRANCISCO |
55 |
| CAROLINA |
55 | |
At least Kansas City's defense is playing well, as they placed in the top five of this category. If the preseason numbers for KC play out in the regular season it certainly looks like the Chiefs will be and Under team to start off the season. The rest of the chart is not really surprising, as the Steelers, Patriots and the Colts (the last three Super Bowl champs from the AFC) are near the top. Saints fans have to be happy to see their team near the top, as the offense figures to be good once again, but if the defense can continue allowing points at just a 3.2 per quarter (12.8ppg) clip, things will be fun in The Big Easy. Carolina's defense has way too much talent to be at the bottom of this list, and I do expect that to be changed around quite a bit once the games start to count.
Lets Get Ready For Some Football!!!
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