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If you like NFL home underdogs, then Week 4 is for you.
Of the 14 games being played this week, nine matchups involve the road team laying points.
The biggest road favorites are the Patriots laying seven on Monday night against the Bengals and the Steelers minus 5 ½ at Arizona.
Oddsmakers, especially the ones in Las Vegas, put a higher tax on public teams such as New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Dallas.
“The public is on them every week,” Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, said about those clubs. “So we make their number higher intentionally.”
One of those road favorites is Houston. The only other time the Texans were road ‘chalk’ in their six-year history was minus 1 against San Francisco during the final game of 2005. The Texans are a field goal favorite against the Michael Vick-less Falcons.
“Atlanta may not win a game all year,” Seba said.
Before this past Sunday, the early Week 4 line at the Las Vegas Hilton was Vikings minus 2 hosting the Packers. But with Green Bay upsetting San Diego to run its record to 3-0 and Minnesota looking dismal again on offense in a road loss to Kansas City, the LVSC oddsmakers opened the Packers minus 3. The line currently is Packers minus 1 ½.
“Everybody is jumping on the Packers bandwagon,” Seba said. “We have to side with the public. I think the number will come up and close 2 ½. The sharps would take three.”
Baltimore opened either minus 4 or 4 ½ at Cleveland. Seba thinks this line is short. He was thinking the line should be 6 or 6 ½.
“I think it’s a little cheap,” he said. “Cleveland won’t be able to go crazy against this defense. The Browns have gone against two bad defenses (Bengals and Raiders) the past two weeks.”
Other road favorites are the Bears against the Lions, Jets against the Bills, Seahawks versus the 49ers and Eagles at the Giants.
Seba wouldn’t be shocked if the 49ers upset the Seahawks. The 49ers are off a 21-point loss to the Steelers.
“Pittsburgh can make a lot of teams look bad,” Seba said. “The 49ers are in a good spot.”
Some of the lines are up in the air because of quarterback injuries. Buffalo isn’t expected to have injured J.P. Losman, meaning rookie Trent Edwards makes his first start. Seba said that change would mean a two-point adjustment in the line with the Jets going from minus 3 to minus 5.
The Panthers could be without Jake Delhomme and Denver’s Jay Cutler is nursing an ankle sprain.
LVSC’s oddsmakers had a wide range of opinions on the Broncos-Colts game with the numbers ranging from Colts minus 7 up to 10 ½. That number would be higher if Cutler has to sit in favor of backup Patrick Ramsey. If that were to be the case, the readjusted line could be minus 13.
“We’d rather make the number too high on the Colts and have it bet down rather than make it too low and have everybody take it,” Seba said.
Probably no other team gets used more in parlay and teaser cards than the Colts.
There are two double-digit favorites, the Chargers hosting the Chiefs and Cowboys at home versus the Rams. The LVSC linesmakers sent-out Chargers minus 13.
“I can’t argue with a high number,” Seba said. “If the Chargers were going to lay it on somebody, this would be it.”
The Cowboys opened minus 11, but that line may climb with the news Monday that Steven Jackson is out with a groin injury.