Even after a shift of the bye schedule to a week later compared to last season, it seems early to have NFL bye weeks starting already in Week 4. There are many arguments about when the best time to have a bye week is and what meaning they can have, but recent results show that an early season bye week off can definitely pay dividends for your franchise. We will take a look at the past results and upcoming situations for the four teams sitting out this week, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tennessee, and Washington.

Although it seems like it would be a great advantage, there is not much historical precedence for improved against the spread records following a bye week in the NFL. Our data indicates that teams off bye weeks have covered about 51 percent of the time since 1980. Home teams off bye weeks have been fractionally stronger but there is no real overall trend of note. All bye weeks are not created equal however.

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The bye week system has changed a few times in recent years with a major wrinkle added last season. Until last season since the eight-division format was created there were four teams on bye weeks each week spread out from week 3 to week 10. Last season a major change occurred with the bye weeks going from week 3 to just week 9, and two weeks featuring six teams on a bye. Last season there were six teams off in week 6 and week 7, this year it will be week 6 and week 8 and all the byes have been moved back to start in week 4, not week 3.

One can infer some emotional and physical advantages to having a bye week early or late. Some could argue it is better to have a late bye week to split the season into more equal halves and avoid playing 13 straight weeks in a row like this week’s bye teams will have to. Others may say an early bye week is an advantage as players are still adjusting to the playbook and systems as well as other teammates and a week off early in the year can expedite the development of the team.

In reality there are too many other factors to say definitively that a certain bye week presents an overall advantage because injuries, opponents, and the standings could all dictate an advantage to a certain bye week that would not be present in all situations. From a pointspread standpoint the recent history does present a few trends however.

In the last five seasons the best bye week to have based on against the spread performance in the following week was the week 9 bye, late in the season. Those teams went 12-4 against the spread in the last five years, but this season week 9 will not be the final bye week so the situation may not be quite the same.

The next best bye week to have has been the first bye week in week 3 as in the past five years those teams have delivered a 14-6 against the spread record in week 4. Last season two examples come to mind of taking advantage of the early bye week. In week 4 of last season Kansas City crushed San Francisco 41-0 after starting 0-2 and also Dallas beat Tennessee 45-14. San Diego and Oakland actually lost outright in closely lined games last season coming off the early bye week.

The situation is not quite the same this season for early bye week teams as each team has played three games with the shift in the scheduling but there may be reason to look at playing on the teams that are resting this week.

Jacksonville: The Jaguars made a surprising decision to cut quarterback Byron Leftwich before the season started and things have worked out with a 2-1 start despite a shaky week 1 performance. The Jaguars are stuck in the AFC South which has produced zero losses outside of the division through three weeks but the upcoming schedule is manageable. The Jaguars go to Kansas City in week 5 and will likely be favored. Favorites that are off a bye week and entered the bye week off back-to-back straight up wins have gone 11-3 against the spread since 2003.

New Orleans: The Saints have easily been the most disappointing team in 2007 as many projected them as one of the top teams in the NFC and a legitimate Super Bowl contender. New Orleans will have plenty to work on in the off week with terrible offensive production so far this season and a league high ten turnovers. The injury to Deuce McAllister adds gloom to the outlook but winless teams coming out of bye weeks have done well, going 41-27 against the spread since 1981. The Saints host the Panthers in week 5.

Tennessee: The Titans have proved that the late run in 2006 was not a fluke with two impressive wins over 2006 playoff teams and a competitive battle with the Super Bowl champions. Tennessee has a terrific ground game that is aided by the abilities of quarterback Vince Young and Tennessee will likely be favored in its next five games, meaning a great start and a leg-up in playoff positioning in the tough AFC is possible. The Titans host the currently winless Falcons in week 5 and teams off bye weeks that are favored by seven or more are 77-53 against the spread since 1982.

Washington: The Redskins looked like a strong candidate to start 3-0 but the defense was picked apart by the Giants in the second half for a tough division loss. Washington also has a great running game and the game plan sticks primarily to ground although quarterback Jason Campbell has shown off his great arm. The Redskins will host an explosive Lions team in week 5 but teams out of a bye week that are coming off an outright loss as a favorite are 15-8 against the spread since 2002.