It has been four weeks now. But figuring out the NFL still remains a mystery – unless you’re a strict underdog bettor.
NFL underdogs are 35-21-5 (62.5 percent) this season going into the Patriots-Bengals Monday night matchup. Home ‘dogs have been especially profitable following Sunday’s 6-2 against the spread mark, covering 14 of 20 (70 percent).
When the Falcons, Browns, Bills, Cardinals and Chiefs all win – and they were getting a combined 29 points on Sunday – things still remain very unsettled in pro football.
“If you bet serious money on the NFL, you’re in trouble,” said Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “This league is very had to figure out.”
It certainly is and it doesn’t get any easier for Week 5.
Care to point out the winner in the Panthers-Saints matchup where the Panthers could be going with David Carr at quarterback again and the winless Saints are averaging 12.6 points.
New Orleans has lost Deuce McAllister for the season and Reggie Bush is averaging just 50 yards rushing/receiving a game.
“It’s one of the hardest lines to make when you have two teams underperforming,” Seba said. “With (Jake) Delhomme being out and Carr being so bad, you have to figure out how far to drop Carolina.”
The LVSC oddsmakers decided to send out Saints minus four to their many hotel clients. Offshore bookmakers opened the game lower. Pinnacle opened New Orleans minus 1, while CRIS was at minus three on Monday morning.
Pittsburgh opened minus 5 ½ or six offshore against Seattle at home. Seba believes this line is too high, especially with the uncertain status of key Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward and safety Troy Polamalu. LVSC’s send-out number was Steelers minus 4 ½.
“I know it’s a good spot for Pittsburgh,” Seba said. “But I wouldn’t want to be laying this many points. The Steelers haven’t played anybody the first three weeks (Browns, Bills and 49ers).
“It’s a lot of points to be giving a team that might be in the Super Bowl.”
The last time Pittsburgh and Seattle met was in the Super Bowl two years ago. The Seahawks are 3-1. Their 20-6 opening week win against Tampa Bay is looking more impressive now since the Buccaneers have steamrolled the Saints, Rams and Panthers since then.
The Buccaneers’ three-game winning streak wasn’t enough to keep bookmakers from making them a 10-point road underdog to the Colts. Indianapolis was favored by a similar amount against Denver and had no problem covering against the Broncos this past Sunday, winning by 18.
“We have to error on the high side with the Colts,” Seba said, citing the Colts’ popularity with parlay and teaser bettors. “How much worse is Tampa than Denver and Denver didn’t get there against the Colts?”
The line could climb if Marvin Harrison is able to play. He suffered a knee injury against the Broncos. The Colts also suffered defensive injuries to linebacker Rob Morris and safety Bob Sanders.
Tampa Bay, however, suffered two key injuries losing tailback Carnell Williams for the season and its best offensive lineman, tackle Luke Petitgout for the year.
Oddsmakers probably opened Baltimore too short at minus three on the road against San Francisco. The Ravens are off a loss to the Browns, are 0-5 against the spread as a road favorite and Steve McNair isn’t 100 percent because of a groin injury.
But the 49ers are without quarterback Alex Smith and promising tight end Vernon Davis. That means Trent Dilfer will be behind center for the 49ers looking at old teammate Ray Lewis. Baltimore’s defense still remains intimidating.
The Ravens-49ers line was climbing to 3 ½ Monday and could get all the way to 4 ½ by kickoff.
From a handicapping perspective, Seba thought Dallas should be favored by eight at Buffalo on Monday night. The line is Dallas minus 10.
“You don’t mess around with the Cowboys,” Seba said about making the line on Dallas. “The Cowboys are such a public team that they could get steamed playing on Monday night.”
