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Now or Never
October 3, 2007
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Editor’s Note: Marc Lawrence continues to crush the books in the NFL with winning selections. Don't miss out on his picks on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!
"It's now or never. Come hold me tight. Kiss me my darling. Be mine tonight. Tomorrow will be too late. It's now or never... my love won't wait."
Turning points. The critical paths we cross numerous times throughout our life.
It's a defining moment that oftentimes decides the difference between success and failure. We've both been there before. So, too, has just about every team in the NFL. That's because there becomes a game at some point in every team's schedule that ultimately determines that squad's fate for the season.
Granted, there are the obvious 'must-win or else' games that decide whether or not a team makes it into the playoffs. There are also other games that won't matter due to the fact that a team may have seen their fate sealed earlier on in the season.
According our powerful database, the most pivotal game in a team's season is Game Five. This is especially true for teams who are 1-3 and playing off a loss. Suffering another loss puts them at 1-4 and, for all intents and purposes, the season just about finished. If they are able to put up the stop sign and emerge victorious, as most teams do (79-72-1 SU since 1980), they put themselves back into position to make a run at a winning season.
Because numbers don't lie, these Game Five scenarios become a 'Now or Never' affair. That's confirmed by the fact that 1-3 teams, playing off a loss, are a splendid 89-58-5 ATS winning proposition since 1980.
The best of these roles occurs whenever our 1-3 'Now Or Never' team takes the playing field in the following role –
PLAY ON any 1-3 NFL team in Game Five of the season if they are off a SU loss and their opponent is off a SU win.
As Elvis Presley might sing, "My heart was captured, my soul surrendered, I spent a lifetime, waiting for the right time. Now that you're near, the time is here at last." That's because teams in this role are an exceptional 52-21-3 ATS.
We can tweak this 71% winning angle into a 49-13-3 ATS winning situation simply by making sure that we are either favored or an underdog of seven or less points. By making it a division game, our Win-Loss proposition zooms to and eye-popping 20-1 ATS!
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