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Consecutive road games risky
October 5, 2007
By Joe Nelson VegasInsider.com
U nderdogs have made a lot of noise in the NFL this season and the week 5 schedule presents some quality teams as underdogs in tempting situations. Beware this week, as several of those teams are facing a second consecutive week on the road, which can be a daunting situation. Through the first four weeks of the season eleven teams have faced a second-straight road game, and just two emerged victorious while only three covered the spread.
Only Dallas and Indianapolis were able to win in a second straight road game situation with the Cowboys beating the Bears and the Colts holding on to beat Houston in week 3. The three teams that have been favored on the road in the back-to-back road game situation have all failed to cover with the Colts the only team to actually win the game. New Orleans lost badly at Tampa Bay in week 2 and the Chargers fell in Green Bay in week 3.
Historically teams in the second of back-to-back road games win about 41 percent of the time outright but the against the spread numbers are very close to even, based on the last 25 years of data. We did uncover some compelling trends in the past three seasons for teams in back-to-back road games in the earlier part of the season.
Last season teams facing the second of back-to-back road games went just 8-14 against the spread in the first seven weeks of the season. Teams in that situation in week 5 went 0-4 against the spread last season. In the past three seasons teams playing a second-straight road game in week 5 or week 6 of the schedule combined to go 8-20 against the spread. There would be many ways to justify the difficulty of the travel situation being more relevant early in the year but the recent numbers should get your attention if you are looking at road teams this week.
Four teams appear to be in a daunting situation facing the second of back-to-back road games this week, all four are teams either have strong records or are expected to be playoff contenders. Two other teams technically qualify but do not actually fall into as difficult of circumstances. Jacksonville is playing its second straight game on the road but the Jaguars had a bye week last week and the New York Jets are technically playing a road game but it happens to be in their home stadium against the Giants. The other four teams appear to be in tough situations even if they look like appealing wagers by some other factors.
Baltimore is the lone favorite in the group and the Ravens figure to get plenty of action this week going against the 49ers and backup QB Trent Dilfer. San Francisco has been one of the worst statistical teams in the league but the Ravens have not exactly impressed through four games, struggling badly in both road games this season losing turnover marred games at Cincinnati to start the year and at Cleveland last week. The Ravens will face very long cross-country travel this week and this could be a tougher game than many expect for the Ravens.
Seattle visits Pittsburgh this week in a Super Bowl rematch from two years ago. After a 3-1 start, the Seahawks appear to be the best team in a weak NFC West division and a true contender in the NFC. The Steelers impressed against a light early season schedule but imploded in the second half at Arizona last week, raising some doubts. Seattle is getting plenty of attention as nearly a touchdown underdog but one should not underestimate the difficulty of traveling for the second straight week at great distance after the Seahawks won in San Francisco last week.
Tampa Bay has won three consecutive games and the Buccaneers defense is delivering strong results. The offense has been productive enough to win games but consider the caliber of opponents with two of the three wins coming against teams that are still winless in 2007. The Colts coasted to an easier than expected win last week and at 4-0 there is no question that Indianapolis is still an elite team in the NFL. Injuries for Indianapolis likely have kept this line in single-digits but this is a big jump in competition for Tampa Bay as the Buccaneers may be getting too much respect from people who projected them as one of the worst teams in the league but are now changing tunes after a somewhat suspect 3-1 start.
Chicago has endured a very disappointing start to the season and the QB change did not provide the quick-fix many were hoping for. The Packers are certainly the most scrutinized and least respected of the 4-0 teams at this point in the season and there is likely justification for that mindset. Still Green Bay has posted impressive results through a difficult opening schedule and the 4-0 Packers are just a slight favorite versus the 1-3 Bears. Chicago played in Detroit last week and now faces a second straight difficult division road game.
Certainly there will be teams that overcome tough travel and win on the road but it can be an underrated factor in handicapping and the impact is not always reflected in the lines. If you are considering backing these four teams, there may be adequate reason to give it second thought as playing in these road situations can be difficult.
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