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Opening Line Report
October 8, 2007
By Stephen Nover VegasInsider.com
D espite New England, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh all winning and covering, bookmakers still enjoyed another winning Sunday.
That’s because just about everybody but Jon Kyl bet the Green Bay Packers to beat the Chicago Bears on the nationally televised Sunday night game, the book’s biggest handle game of the week along with the Monday night matchup.
Bookmakers also did well when four favorites – Baltimore, Houston, Tennessee and New Orleans – failed to cover the spread even though three of them won.
“As long as there is an NFL, the books will always flourish,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
It has been a strange first five weeks with underdogs going 42-28-5 (60 percent). The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos are each 0-5 against the spread. The Ravens have a winning straight-up mark.
The Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns are a combined 8-0-1 ‘over’ in their nine games this season.
Bookmakers won’t have to worry about two huge public teams this week as both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are idle.
But the Packers are in action, hosting Washington. The oddsmakers at LVSC sent out Green Bay minus 4 ½. The line is either 3 or 3 ½ depending on the book.
“Our 4 ½ is a little high,” Seba said. “Washington has a good defense and Green Bay looked really bad in the second half (against the Bears).”
The Redskins-Packers total is 40 ½ or 41. The Redskins, along with the Titans, are the only two teams to have gone ‘under’ in all of their games this season.
The Titans are plus 3 at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are without their best offensive lineman, Luke Petitgout, and are down to third-string tailback Earnest Graham with Carnell Williams and Michael Pittman sidelined.
“I think it will close 3,” Seba said of the Titans-Buccaneers matchup. “I don’t see how Tampa Bay scores points here. Tennessee plays hard every week.”
The Titans have won 13 of their last 14 versus NFC South Division competition. The Titans also are on a 13-3 ATS run.
Seba respects the Raiders enough to make them just an 8-point road underdog against San Diego. The Chargers are minus 10 following their dismantling of the Broncos in Denver. Oakland was idle last week.
“All the San Diego believers are back on board,” Seba said. “If the Raiders aren’t ready now, they’ll never be ready. They would have been 14-point underdogs last year.
“Asking the Chargers to win by double-digits is a lot to ask considering how they’ve played.”
Injuries have forced several quarterback changes, including Kansas City going from Damon Huard to Brodie Croyle and Miami forced to switch from Trent Green to Cleo Lemon.
Seba made a one-point adjustment from Huard to Croyle. The Chiefs are 3-point home underdogs against Cincinnati.
“I think the line will come up,” Seba said. “Kansas City really struggles to score and that’s not going to change with Croyle playing quarterback. I think money will be on the Bengals.”
Seba said no adjustment was needed for the Dolphins going with Lemon instead of Green, who suffered a concussion Sunday against Houston. Cleveland is a 4 ½-point home favorite against the winless Dolphins. The Browns haven’t been this large of a favorite since 2003.
“I think 4 ½ is the right number,” Seba said. “You never want to lay a lot of points with Cleveland. Teams with no wins right now really play hard.”
The Dolphins failed to beat the Texans, but did cover the spread. They could be live again as an underdog with Zach Thomas back at middle linebacker and Ronnie Brown playing at a high level. Brown has a combined 571 rushing and receiving yards the past three weeks.
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