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Oddsmakers can’t make a pointspread high enough on the New England Patriots.
“It’s almost an unwritten rule that you can’t make an NFL road team more than 14 no matter what the difference is in the two teams,” said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
So LVSC sent out an opening number in the New England-Miami game of Patriots minus 14. By Monday morning, the Patriots were up 16 ½ and even 17 at some places.
“They’re just re-writing all the odds,” Seba said.
Not only have the Patriots won all six of their games, but they’ve easily covered the pointspread in each contest. Their average victory margin is 23 points.
Following their smashing 48-27 road victory against Dallas this past Sunday, the Patriots’ odds of winning the Super Bowl stood at even money. Bookmakers raised the AFC’s odds of taking the Super Bowl to minus 10 ½ from 8 ½.
It’s just mid-October, but already the Patriots look like a cinch to reach the Super Bowl as long as Tom Brady doesn’t get hurt. The only question seems to be will New England go undefeated along the way?
According to a ‘yes/no’ prop at the Las Vegas Hilton, the Patriots are minus $7.00 to lose at least once during the regular season and plus $5.00 to go undefeated.
“It’s unbelievable to only get 5-1, but if you make the Patriots any higher people will take it,” Seba said.
The Patriots’ biggest test comes on Nov. 4 when they play Indianapolis on the road. The problem with taking the Patriots to go unbeaten is they could rest their starters the last couple of weeks if home-field advantage already is clinched. That’s usually the case if a team opens 13-0.
New England plays three home games in a row during December – Steelers, Jets and Dolphins – before closing on the road against the Giants.
Seba said Belichick, unlike the Colts’ Tony Dungy, just might be egotistical enough to try to go 16-0. The Patriots don’t seem to experience letdown like regular mortals.
Even though they whipped Dallas in the season’s most hyped game, the Patriots probably won’t have a letdown against the winless Dolphins. That’s because Miami upset them last year at home, 21-0. The Dolphins held the Patriots to just 189 yards of offense.
That doesn’t seem possible this season even though the Dolphins have defeated the Patriots seven of the last nine times in South Florida. Miami’s overrated defense is yielding an average of 33.2 points in the last five games.
The Patriots-Dolphins total of 51 is the highest ‘over/under’ on the Week 7 board. The lowest is Baltimore-Buffalo at 35. LVSC sent out an opening side number of Ravens minus 4 ½. The line is a solid three. This surprises Seba.
“When you think about Baltimore playing Buffalo, you think there’s a huge difference,” he said. “But I guess the Dallas game gave Buffalo a good resume. It looks like the Ravens might have to go with (Kyle) Boller again since (Steve) McNair is still banged-up.
“But is Buffalo going to do something against the Ravens defense? I doubt it.”
Denver is a home underdog for the first time since the opening game of the 2002 season when it hosted St. Louis, then coming off a Super Bowl appearance. Pittsburgh is minus 3 ½ versus the Broncos.
“I wouldn’t feel comfortable laying more than a field goal with Pittsburgh on the road,” Seba said. “But it’s amazing the Broncos are playing so bad at home. They’ve really lost it.”
The Broncos have covered only one of their last 12 home games. They also are 1-9 against the spread as a home favorite.
It appears the oddsmakers have set a good line on the Monday night matchup of Indianapolis at Jacksonville. The Colts are three-point road favorites.
The Colts have won an NFL-high 10 consecutive games. They are averaging 32.8 points and expect to have back injured Marvin Harrison and Joseph Addai. Jacksonville has won four in a row. The Jaguars steamrolled the Colts, 44-17, at home last season. The Jaguars rushed for 375 yards, the second highest single-game rushing total in NFL history.
“I can’t argue with three,” Seba said about the pointspread. “Especially with the way Jacksonville has been playing.”
