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Road Favorites Failing
 

Be careful if you are considering backing a road favorite in the NFL, this week or any week. On the season road favorites have produced a 14-20 ATS mark, and if you take away four road favorite covers from the Patriots, the record is just 10-20. Last season road favorites went just 32-50 so make sure you have a good reason to lay points on the road.

This week five teams are laying points on the road and all five teams have very suspect resumes so far in 2007. Let’s take a look at the teams for week 8 and examine why you should be wary to play road chalk even it looks like an appealing situation.

Cleveland: The Browns are surging at 3-3 and the offense is producing big numbers this season as Cleveland climbs to respectability. The Browns do have the advantage of coming off a bye week but on the season Cleveland has played just two road games, losing both games while allowing 60 points. Three of Cleveland’s opponents this season have scored season high point totals in the game against the Browns so the Cleveland defense is still a serious concern. The Browns are allowing 30.5 points per game, fifth worst in the NFL.

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It is easy to look at the match-up and see that the Browns just have to beat a 0-7 team by three points but St. Louis will finally have RB Steven Jackson back in action and QB Marc Bulger is as healthy as he has been all season long. The St. Louis schedule has also featured several highly rated defenses and the Rams have had some of the toughest travel situations in the league, facing four of the past five games on the road. If there is a spot for the Rams to break out, it is in this match-up going against a Browns defense that is ranked #30 against the run and #29 against the pass.

Indianapolis: The Colts are not typically a team that you look to go-against even if value is rarely with a popular team like the reigning Super Bowl Champions. This is a very tough sandwich spot for the Indianapolis coming off a huge Monday night win over Jacksonville and facing the most anticipated game of the season next week against the Patriots. The Colts failed to cover in two out of three road games this season and this will be the second straight week on the road, coming off a short week. Indianapolis had actually failed to cover in seven consecutive games as a road favorite before covering in Jacksonville on Monday.

The Panthers are 4-2 and coming off a bye week despite concerns with the QB situation. The Panthers offense is capable with either Carr of Testaverde at QB and there will be very limited film on either QB in the Panthers offense which can be an advantage. Carolina is allowing just over 18 points per game and the Panthers have covered in 20 of the last 33 games as a home underdog. All four Carolina wins have come on the road this season which means the Panthers are a team that is likely not getting enough respect given how tough it is to win on the road in the NFL.

Philadelphia: The Eagles are just 2-4 this season and the offense has really struggled to find the end zone. Philadelphia scored 56 points against Detroit but in five other games the Eagles have scored a grand total of just 60 points. Last week the Eagles controlled most of the game against the Bears but settling for field goals early allowed Chicago to stay close enough to mount the great comeback win. Last week’s loss will take a huge emotional toll especially considering how far behind the Eagles now are in the NFC East race. The Eagles have covered in just three of the last eleven games as a road favorite and this is not a great situation for Philadelphia.

Minnesota has struggled on offense as well but Head Coach Brad Childress knows the Eagles system and many players extremely well which could be an advantage here. Likely starter QB Holcomb also started training camp playing with the Eagles which could help the cause. The Vikings are also just 2-4 but the defense has been among the best in the league against the run. RB Peterson is the wild card for the Vikings and he is a threat to take over the game.

Pittsburgh: The Steelers have often been mentioned among the elite teams in the NFL this season but there has been little proof of that status being warranted yet. The schedule has been very light for Pittsburgh as they have a big advantage this season facing a third place schedule. The four teams that Pittsburgh has defeated have combined for just 11 wins this season. This will be the second consecutive road game for the Steelers and Pittsburgh has lost its last two road games.

The Bengals are certainly a risky team to back given some of the problems with injuries and between teammates but the value is exceptional with Cincinnati in this match-up. The Bengals opened the season as a three-point favorite against a Baltimore team that won the NFC North last season and now the Bengals are a home underdog to a Steelers squad that has lost two of its last three games. Cincinnati may have some momentum coming off the big comeback win last week at home.

New Orleans: The Saints have won back-to-back games but turnovers were key factors in the Seattle game and the Saints barely held off a Falcons squad immersed in turmoil. Despite the high expectations, New Orleans is still just a team with a 2-4 record. The offense that was expected to post huge numbers is scoring just over 16 points per game, fifth worst in the NFL. QB Brees has ten interceptions on the season and the Saints should not be trusted on the road.

The 49ers offense has had problems but the defense has been fairly effective, allowing just 16 points per game at home. QB Smith is expected to be back in action this week and RB Gore appears healthy as well which should provide a significant boost to the offense. The 49ers are better team than the record indicates and this defense can surprise.

  
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