Editor’s Note: Jamie Tursini recently spoke on the Betting Totals panel at the VegasInsider.com Football Handicapping Seminar. His selections and analysis can be purchased on VI this year. Click to win!
These are my NFL “Power Rating Totals”. I’ve designed a set of home/away numbers for each NFL team. I’m able to combine and adjust them based on performance each week throughout the season, so I may find the value in playing totals.
The final “PRT” for each game represents the total amount of points we can expect to be scored in each matchup. I’m looking for a minimum difference of 3 points between the “PRT’s” and the betting “total” to consider a play.
Keep in mind that these are “hard” numbers. We must take injuries and weather into consideration ourselves. And determine if these factors come into play.
For example: If a starting quarterback is out for a game. You must decide how many points is he actually worth to his team?
Week 1 for 2006 is a perfect example. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was out as Pittsburgh hosted Miami. Veteran Charlie Batch started.
The “Power Rating Total” (before the injury) for this match-up was 41 (we can expect a total of 41 point to be scored).
The total opened at 37 before Ben had emergency surgery. Giving us a 4 point difference and value looking at the over. The total closed at 34. This didn’t necessarily mean that Ben was only three points better than C.Batch. 34 is a key number (4 TD’s and 2 FG’s) and the books didn’t want to get stuck in the middle if the number was lowered to say 33. If it would’ve landed on 34 or 35 then the under 37 and the over 33 would’ve cashed in.
Pittsburgh won 28-17 as the game easily went over the opening and closing numbers.
It’s up to you to decide these types of things, how much is QB a worth? Are the oddsmakers protecting themselves thus giving us value?
Below is the overall record for the “PRT’s” (minimum 3 pt. difference) against the average closing Las Vegas lines only.
We’ll keep track here every week vs. the widely available closing numbers. Not concerning ourselves with weather or injuries for record-keeping purposes. You can keep track how they do vs. the opening numbers as well.
| Over/Under Difference Ratings |
| Range |
Record |
| 3.0 to 3.5 |
10-10-1 |
| 4.0 to 4.5 |
5-5 |
| 5.0 to 5.5 |
4-6 |
| 6.0 to 6.5 |
4-2 |
| 7.0 to 7.5 |
2-5 |
| 8.0 to 8.5 |
1-0 |
| 9.0 and up |
0-1 |
| Overall Record |
26-29-1 (47.2%) | |
Week 10 NFL "Power Rating Totals"
Jacksonville
Tennessee 40.5
Denver
Kansas City 43
Buffalo
Miami 42.5
Cleveland
Pittsburgh 42.5
St. Louis
New Orleans 42
Atlanta
Carolina 40
Philadelphia
Washington 38
Minnesota
Green Bay 41
Cincinnati
Baltimore 44.5
Chicago
Oakland 40
Dallas
N.Y. Giants 45.5
Detroit
Arizona 42.5
Indianapolis
San Diego 45
San Francisco
Seattle 42.5
Remember we're looking for a minimum difference of at least 3 points between the "PRT's" and the betting total to consider a play.
Thank you, Jamie Tursini
