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Opening Numbers - Week 11
 

Do you think the Cincinnati Bengals are any good? The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants do, at least for Week 11.

They sent out Bengals minus 4 hosting the Arizona Cardinals. The early betting line on Monday was Bengals minus 3 with higher juice. So the line is creeping up to 3 ½.

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But is this justified considering the Bengals have lost nine of their last 12 games? Cincinnati has beaten Baltimore for two of its three victories this season. Both times the Ravens turned the ball over six times in losing to the Bengals.

“We’ve been fooled by the Bengals before,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for LVSC. “You think they (the Bengals) are turning it around and you’re fooled.

“ Cincinnati does have talent. The Bengals defense actually played well against Baltimore . Maybe that victory turns them around. A win like that can do a lot of psychological good because they were down in the dumps.”

Maybe, though, the Cardinals are finally deserving of some respect. The Cardinals are a much more physical and mentally tougher team than in past seasons under first-year head coach Ken Whisenhunt and his ace assistant head coach/offensive line coach Russ Grimm.

Arizona actually has covered 12 of its last 16 contests. They are 4-1-1 against the spread this year as an underdog.

The Cardinals finally have a balanced attack with Edgerrin James rushing, unlike in the previous Dennis Green regime. The Bengals have allowed six 100-yard rushers. They are 0-6 in those matchups.

Jacksonville is a three-point home favorite against San Diego . The Jaguars are hoping to have starting quarterback David Garrard back. LVSC’s opening line recommendation was Jacksonville minus 2 ½.

“I’m surprised Jacksonville is three,” Seba said. “You’re asking for trouble if you lay three with this Jacksonville offense even if Garrard is back.

“The Jaguars don’t have (suspended defensive tackle) Marcus Stroud or a passing attack.”

Not wanting to get caught short on New England, the LVSC oddsmakers opened the Patriots 16-point road favorites against Buffalo . The Bills were plus 15 at most books on Monday.

The Bills are on a nice pointspread run, covering 13 of their last 17 games. They are 5-0 against the number at home this season, 3-2 straight-up. Only one-point losses to Denver and Dallas, each on last-second field goals, keep Buffalo from having won all five of its home contests.

“I can see it closing 14 ½ just because Buffalo plays so well at home,” Seba said. “But we’d rather be in the position of needing New England .”

The Patriots were idle last week. They failed to cover for the first time this season during their last game, a 24-20 road win against Indianapolis . Chances are the 5 ½-point favorite Patriots would have covered if the Colts would have had two more time-outs since New England was in field goal range at the end of the game but chose to run out the clock.

“If the Bills cover the number, we won’t be so big anymore on the Patriots,” said Seba, acknowledging that oddsmakers slant the Patriots’ pointspread high on purpose knowing how popular New England is with the betting public.

New Orleans lost some of its momentum and luster after losing at home to previously winless St. Louis as a double-digit favorite. The Saints travel to Houston. LVSC’s send-out was pick.

Bookmakers opened the Saints in the minus one to minus three range. But if Reggie Bush doesn’t play and the Texans get back their weapons – wide receiver Andre Johnson, starting tailback Ahman Green and quarterback Matt Schaub – they could close the favorite.

“If they get back those three players, I would make Houston minus 1 or 1 ½,” Seba said.

Despite losing to Dallas this past Sunday, the New York Giants opened either minus 2 ½ or three at Detroit . LVSC’s recommendation was Lions minus 1 ½.

“The Giants are the better team, but the Lions play so well at home,” Seba said. “I don’t see it being three at all. It seems too high of a number for the Giants to lay on the road.”

  
HEADLINES
Hall: Bears at Colts
Young: Monday Night Tip Sheet
Jacobs: Home Underdog Notebook
Young: LVSC Power Rankings, Week 1
Stoffo: Betting Strategies
Jacobs: NFL Challenge -- Week 1
Saints hold off Tampa Bay
Jets record road victory
Pats QB Brady injures leg
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