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The Sunday night NFL games are growing into the must-see match-ups given the TV network switch and now with the late-season flexible scheduling too, but the Monday night games can impact teams more in the following week.
After back-to-back Monday games that resulted in blowout wins with little drama, there has to be something interesting to look at when watching the Monday night action unfold.
After tracking the following week results for teams playing on Monday night there are some interesting developments. Intuitively one might think that both teams would be negatively impacted with the short week and possible travel, not to mention the extra media attention and emphasis that can come with playing on a nationally televised stage. It might also be reasonable to assume the winning team would be at a disadvantage the next week coming off a big win and possibly overvalued in the next week after impressing a large audience. One might also expect the losing team to have extra motivation the following week off the primetime loss. The recent numbers indicate that the opposite is true however.
Teams that have lost the Monday night game this season have gone 4-5 straight-up and against the spread in the following game. Last season the numbers were dramatically worse however, as teams coming off a Monday night loss went 4-14 straight up the next game and just 6-11-1 against the spread.
The recent historical numbers overall are poor for teams in this situation as in the last five years teams coming off a straight up Monday night loss are 31-45 straight up and 33-41-2 against the spread. Surprisingly the results produce the strongest go-against situations if the Monday night loser is playing at home the following week, with a 13-24-2 against the spread record in the last five years.
As for the winners on Monday night the numbers also provide some compelling results. This season teams coming off a straight up Monday night win have gone 7-2 SU the following week and 5-4 ATS. The SU numbers are impressive the last five years with a 48-28 record including 20-7 in the last two years and 32-12 in the last three years. The ATS numbers are favorable but not nearly as overwhelming, which makes sense given that teams will likely be a bit overvalued. In a situation where the line is fairly low or if the team is playing as an underdog however, it may make sense to look at Monday night winner the following week.
Last week Seattle and San Francisco battled the elements for a 24-0 Seahawks win and cover. This week Seattle remains at home playing a Bears team on the road for the second straight week.
Given the long travel and the big comeback win for the Bears in Oakland last week this could be a good spot for the Seahawks anyway, and with the findings of the success for teams off Monday night wins the situation looks even more favorable. Seattle is currently less than a touchdown favorite in the match-up.
The 49ers are a home underdog to the 1-8 Rams but the value may actually be with St. Louis as the offense appears to have most of its arsenal healthy coming off a great performance last week. The 49ers meanwhile have lost seven consecutive games while failing to top 20 points in any game this season. With the short week and facing travel last weekend from Seattle, the troubles for the 49ers may continue this week.
Keep an eye on the Monday night results even if the game does not live up to its billing there are reasons to pay attention as it may help you find a winner the following week.