Sometimes the most important players don’t factor into the line when they are out.
Everybody knows the value of skill-position players, but how about a run-stuffing defensive tackle who also has five sacks? Since Tennessee defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth has been out with a sore right hamstring, the Titans have dropped three in a row.
Before Haynesworth went out, the Titans had held six opponents to 14 points or less. But in their last three games, the Titans are allowing an average of 32.3 points per contest.
Maybe bookmakers are wising up because some opened Tennessee as low as minus 3 ½ hosting Houston.
Haynesworth may return this week, which could make 3 ½ a bargain.
“If ever they’re going to show up it would be here,” Las Vegas Sports Consultants senior oddsmaker Mike Seba said of the Titans. LVSC sent out Titans minus 4 ½ to their many Nevada hotel clients.
The big matchup in the AFC South Division isn’t Houston-Tennessee. It’s Jacksonville-Indianapolis. The Colts opened seven-point favorites.
“I think six is the right number,” Seba said, “maybe 6 ½ at the most. I would take a seven all day long. Jacksonville is playing well and has revenge.
“Indy is not the Indy we know. The Colts have injuries and when they win, they win close games. They’re not blowing teams out. I think the value is with Jacksonville.”
The oddsmakers at LVSC sent out a line of ‘pick’ on the New York Giants-Chicago Bears. Bookmakers opened the Giants anywhere from minus one to 2 ½. The line was still fluctuating at those numbers on Monday.
“I can understand the Giants being the favorite,” Seba said. “The Giants are the better team. You have to figure the Giants aren’t as bad as they looked (against the Vikings). The Bears don’t have (Cedric) Benson either.”
Seba made Dallas a seven-point home favorite for Thursday’s home game versus Green Bay. The line was either 6 ½ or seven on Monday depending on the sportsbook.
“We (the house) try to stay a little high on Dallas,” he said. “You can’t take anything away from Green Bay. It’s (Tony) Romo and his receivers. Dallas also is at home and has faced tougher competition. The Packers haven’t faced a strong passing team like this.”
Brett Favre also has never won in eight tries at Dallas. The Packers, though, are 5-0 straight-up and against the spread away from Lambeau Field this season. They have a seven-game road winning streak and have won 14 of their last 15 games overall.
Carolina is a favorite for probably the last time this season. The Panthers opened either minus 2 ½ or three hosting San Francisco.
“It’s interesting that Carolina is minus three against any team considering it hasn’t won a home game yet,” Seba said.
The Panthers have dropped seven consecutive home contests, including all five this season. The 49ers, however, are 1-8 against teams not named Arizona this year.
If any good has come out of the Panthers’ season, it’s the crystal clear realization that David Carr is not a threat to become their starting quarterback of the future. Carr has succeeded in turning Steve Smith and DeShaun Foster into non-entities. Smith only came into the season as probably the top receiving threat in the NFC.
New England opened a whooping 20-point road favorite against Baltimore. This is nothing new for the Patriots. They closed as high as 25-point favorites against Philadelphia Sunday night.
The Patriots never came close to covering that big of a number. But they may get there against the Ravens.
“The Ravens can’t compete anymore,” Seba said. “The Patriots can really name their score here.”
Not helping matters for the Ravens is Patriots coach Bill Belichick showing no restraint in running up a score. He may do it here against Brian Billick, who isn’t the most beloved coach in the league, plus the Patriots may be in a sour mood after nearly being upset on national television Sunday night.
