These are my NFL “Power Rating Totals”. I’ve designed a set of home/away numbers for each NFL team. I’m able to combine and adjust them based on performance each week throughout the season, so I may find the value in playing totals.

The final “PRT” for each game represents the total amount of points we can expect to be scored in each matchup. I’m looking for a minimum difference of 3 points between the “PRT’s” and the betting “total” to consider a play.

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Keep in mind that these are “hard” numbers. We must take injuries and weather into consideration ourselves. And determine if these factors come into play.

For example: If a starting quarterback is out for a game. You must decide how many points is he actually worth to his team.

Week 1 for 2006 is a perfect example. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was out as Pittsburgh hosted Miami. Veteran Charlie Batch started.

The “Power Rating Total” (before the injury) for this match-up was 41 (we can expect a total of 41 point to be scored).

The total opened at 37 before Ben had emergency surgery. Giving us a four-point difference and value looking at the over. The total closed at 34. This didnn’t necessarily mean that Ben was only three points better than C.Batch. 34 is a key number (four TD’s and two FG’s) and the books didn’t want to get middled if the number was lowered to say 33. If it would’ve landed on 34 or 35 then the under 37 and the over 33 would’ve cashed in.

Pittsburgh won 28-17 as the game easily went over the opening and closing numbers.

It’s up to you to decide these types of things, how much is QB A worth? Are the oddsmakers protecting themselves thus giving us value?

Here’s the overall record for the “PRT’s” (minimum three-point difference) against the average closing Las Vegas lines only.

We’ll keep track here every week vs the widely available closing numbers. Not concerning ourselves with weather or injuries for record-keeping purposes. You can keep track how they do vs the opening numbers as well.

Over/Under Difference

3.0 to 3.5       14-12-1
4.0 to 4.5           6-9
5.0 to 5.5           7-8
6.0 to 6.5           5-2
7.0 to 7.5           3-5
8.0 to 8.5           1-0
9.0 and up         0-2

Overall Record 36-38-1 48.6%

Week 13 NFL “Power Rating Totals”

Green Bay-Dallas          47.5

Atlanta-St. Louis             44

Buffalo-Washington        39

Detroit-Minnesota           44

Houston-Tennessee       41.5

Jacksonville-Indianapolis 44

N.Y. Jets-Miami               45.5

San Diego-Kansas City  45

Seattle-Philadelphia        43

San Francisco-Carolina  41

Tampa Bay-New Orleans 40.5

Cleveland-Arizona             45

Denver-Oakland                 42

N.Y. Giants-Chicago          44.5

Cincinnati-Pittsburgh         44.5

New England-Baltimore    46

Remember we’re looking for a minimum difference of at least three points between the “PRT’s” and the betting total to consider a play.