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Opening Line Report
December 3, 2007
By Stephen Nover VegasInsider.com
LAS VEGAS – L as Vegas Sports Consultants senior oddsmaker Mike Seba doesn’t think much of the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are 10 ½-point road underdogs to Jacksonville. Seba believes that number is too low – way too low.
“Power ratings-wise I make it a 15-point difference between the two teams,” he said.
But since it’s difficult to make any team not named New England more than a two-touchdown favorite in the NFL, LVSC sent-out Jacksonville minus 13 ½.
The Jaguars have been playing well. But the Jaguars, with their old-fashion style running attack and limited throws downfield, are not the kind of team one normally associates with as a heavy favorite.
Jacksonville is 0-4 against the spread when laying 10 or more points during the past three years. Carolina is off a 31-14 home win against San Francisco, losers of nine of its last 10.
This isn’t important to Seba. He’s not impressed with the Panthers’ victory.
“Carolina is still a very poor team,” he said. “They had a good game against a terrible team. I think there’s a big difference between Carolina and Jacksonville. We (LVSC’s oddsmakers) think 10 ½ is too short.”
Seba and crew sent-out the New York Giants as a slight road favorite against Philadelphia. Bookmakers opened the Eagles minus three.
Seba attributes this to the belief that Donovan McNabb will be back this week after missing the past two games. He said there’s only a slight difference between McNabb and backup A.J. Feeley, who nearly led the Eagles to an upset victory against New England as a 24-point underdog.
“There’s not much difference physically between the two quarterbacks,” Seba said. “It’s more perception-wise.
“The Eagles have lost two heartbreakers in a row. I think this game closes less than three.”
Minnesota was a road favorite against San Francisco of anywhere from a touchdown to as high as nine points at one offshore book, Pinnacle, on Monday morning.
“I think it will close seven or eight,” Seba said. “I don’t think they (the Vikings) are the kind of team you can lay that many points with on the road.”
If the Miami Dolphins are going to win their first game of the season on Sunday, they’ll have to accomplish the feat as a seven-point road underdog to Buffalo. The Bills haven’t been this strong of a favorite in four years.
Miami, however, has lost 15 games in a row, is traveling to a cold-weather site and is 2-13 against the spread in its past 15 division matchups. Rookie quarterback John Beck still hasn’t directed a Miami touchdown drive in three starts. The Dolphins were hammered at home by the New York Jets this past Sunday, 40-13.
“The Dolphins had their chance to finally win,” Seba said. “That was their only realistic chance.”
After meeting the Bills, the Dolphins conclude their season at home to Baltimore, traveling to New England and hosting Cincinnati.
Seba was surprised the San Diego-Tennessee matchup opened pick. He said all four LVSC linesmakers had the Chargers three-point road favorites.
“Tennessee had a nice victory,” he said of the Titans’ victory Sunday against Houston. “But they were at home and had to win. San Diego is on a roll.
“Right now San Diego is one of the best teams in the AFC. I’m really high on San Diego. I can’t see the Chargers at less than minus three, but it looks like it’s going to close around a pick.”
New Orleans opened minus 4 ½ at Atlanta in the Monday night game. LVSC sent out minus 5 ½. Seba’s number was even higher at minus six.
“Atlanta is just playing the string out,” he said. “If the Saints come to play, they’ll win.”
Chris Redman may get the start at quarterback for Atlanta. That wouldn’t have any affect on the line, Seba said. He rates Redman the same as Joey Harrington and Byron Leftwich. In other words, Seba doesn’t think much of Redman.
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