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Opening Line Report
December 10, 2007
By Stephen Nover VegasInsider.com
T he New England Patriots are minus 24 points hosting the New York Jets. That’s only four points away from matching the biggest pointspread in NFL history.
Yet laying 24 with the Patriots might turn into a value play. Las Vegas Sports Consultant senior linesmaker Mike Seba made the number Patriots minus 27. The LVSC oddsmakers sent out a recommendation of New England minus 26.
Once the public keeps being reminded that it was Jets coach Eric Mangini who blew the whistle on Bill Belichick for sign stealing spy tactics, the number just may reach the minus 28 that the Baltimore Colts were favored by against the expansion Atlanta Falcons in 1966. That’s the largest spread, according to The Gold Sheet.
The Patriots buried the Jets by 24 points in Week 1 – and that was before Belichick really had a grudge against his former assistant, Mangini. He probably only semi-hated him then.
Tom Brady completed 22-of-28 passes against the passive Jets for 297 yards and three touchdowns. Randy Moss hauled in nine passes for 183 yards. Brady is 11-2 career-wise against the Jets with a 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Seba said the only thing that could stop this line from getting higher is bad weather.
“If it is decent weather,” he said, “the line can only go up. Who is going to bet the Jets at any price?”
Oddsmakers had a tough call deciding on the right number for Thursday’s Denver Broncos-Houston Texans matchup before coming out with Houston minus 1 ½.
“I could see it either ‘pick’ or 1 either way,” Seba said. “The Texans have been playing well at home and it doesn’t matter if (Matt) Schaub or (Sage) Rosenfels is the quarterback.”
This is really the first week oddsmakers have to account for dead home teams with no real incentive. On that list for Week 15 are San Francisco, St. Louis, Carolina and Kansas City.
“If a bad team is home you don’t give them any home field advantage,” Seba said in addressing the situation. “You just use your power rankings.”
The Panthers seem to be in a good situation. They draw Seattle at home after the Seahawks just clinched the NFC West title with a strong victory Sunday against Arizona. It’s the Seahawks’ third long trip in four weeks. Seattle hasn’t been a good road club going 6-11-1 against the spread.
But Carolina has dropped six of its past seven. Those brave souls that backed the Panthers Sunday in a failed effort against Jacksonville aren’t going to be so inclined again after witnessing another horrible Carolina quarterback performance, even getting seven at home versus Seattle.
“I don’t know how anyone can play the Panthers,” Seba said. “They have nothing to play for. It is a letdown spot for the Seahawks, but they are playing so well. You either have to play the Seahawks or pass the game.”
There’s inflation on the Monday night game with Minnesota laying nine, 9 ½ or 10 at home to the Chicago Bears.
“It should be 7 ½ or eight,” Seba said. “But you have to pad it.”
Tennessee is minus four at Kansas City despite losing four of its past five. The Chiefs always are intriguing as an underdog at Arrowhead Stadium, especially off an embarrassing loss.
There was disagreement on what the Washington Redskins-New York Giants line should be. The line opened as low as Giants minus 3 1/2. By Monday afternoon the line had settled in at Giants minus 4 ½. Seba thought the Giants should be favored by six.
“The Redskins need the game a lot more so I can understand why the number is lower,” he said.
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