Making NFL opening numbers for Week 16 can be a challenge, especially this year. There are bad weather sites, teams locked into specific playoff spots and other clubs that appear without motivation.
Oddsmakers opened the New England Patriots too high last week against the New York Jets and bookmakers got bit on the side and total when the Patriots only won, 20-10, because of terrible weather elements.
Buffalo and Cleveland could only manage a combined eight points in blizzard conditions in Cleveland.
There are potential weather elements this week in the Cleveland-Cincinnati, Green Bay-Chicago, Miami-New England and New York Giants-Buffalo matchups.
That’s why the undefeated Patriots were just 21 ½-point home favorites on Monday against the one-win Miami Dolphins.
“It won’t be easy for the Dolphins, but if the weather is like it was Sunday in New England then I could see the Patriots playing conservative again,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
This also might be the matchup where if the Patriots get way ahead, Bill Belichick won’t look to run up a score with the playoffs so close and Miami’s offense so weak.
Dead teams such as Atlanta pose a problem for oddsmakers. The recommendation from the LVSC crew on the Atlanta-Arizona matchup was Cardinals minus 10 ½. The line on Monday was 10 at many books.
The Falcons mailed in a weak performance at Tampa Bay last Sunday under interim coach Emmitt Smith. The Cardinals still have faint playoff hopes.
“Nobody is going to bet Atlanta,” Seba said. “But I don’t think it will close more than 11.”
The Bengals can’t be trusted either despite being home to division and in-state rival Cleveland. That’s why the Browns are minus three as they try to hunt down a playoff spot. Seba’s number was Browns minus 3 ½.
“I sent it out high because I think Cincinnati is done,” he said. “Clearly Cleveland is the side. But you have to consider what the weather might be.”
The New York Jets are another dead team and could be missing their best wide receiver, Laveranues Coles. That partly explains why they opened 9 ½-point road underdogs to Tennessee, which had dropped four of its last five until dispatching Kansas City this past week. The line on Monday had dropped to Tennessee minus 8 ½.
“Normally the line would be Tennessee minus 6 ½,” Seba said. “But the Titans need the game and the Jets are ready for the season to close.”
Until Tony Dungy reveals how much he’s going to play Peyton Manning and his starters, the Houston-Indianapolis matchup is going to be tough to predict. Anticipating that Manning would not play the entire game since the Colts are locked into the No. 2 playoff seed in the AFC, most books had Indianapolis minus seven.
“If the Colts needed the game we would have made the line 14,” Seba said.
Tampa Bay opened seven-point road favorites traveling cross-country to San Francisco. The Buccaneers are in a flat spot having clinched the NFC South Division, while the 49ers have had extra time to prepare after beating Cincinnati last Thursday in probably their best offensive showing of the season.
It only took Mike Nolan 14 weeks, but he finally uncovered a quarterback in Shaun Hill.
“I think seven is as high as you can go,” Seba said. “I can only see it (the number) going lower.”
The Giants were minus three across the board Monday for their road matchup against Buffalo. The Giants need a victory to earn a playoff spot. They have the Patriots on deck. So it’s probably win at Buffalo or miss out on the post-season.
Buffalo has lost a franchise-high 14 players for the season. The Bills won’t be in the playoffs. Still, they are 6-1 against the spread at home with their lone non-cover occurring against the Patriots.
Considering this, LVSC sent out an opening line of pick.
“If Buffalo shows up to play, I think pick is the right number,” Seba said. “After the way the Giants played on Sunday night against the Redskins and losing (Jeremy) Shockey, I can’t make them a favorite.”
