Take a look at the home teams appearing on the 2007 NFL final regular season card this week. Notice anything peculiar? If you said half of them are dogs (aka: home dogs), you are correct. More importantly, three of them are winning teams that will dress up as home dogs – all three of whom are playoff bound.
This in itself, according to the our numbers, is any interesting situation. That’s because winning teams, playing as home dogs in regular season finales, are a robust 15-9 SU & 16-8 ATS in all games since 1980. Think about that for a moment. In 37 years a play like this generates an average of less than two plays every three years. However, because the new wave of thinking by coaches approaching the playoffs (opting to rest starters rather than risk injury), we are seeing more and more qualifying plays lately.
Let’s examine the coach’s tendencies throughout their NFL career of the three teams that qualify this weekend, namely the Giants, the Colts and the Bucs…
Tom Coughlin – 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in Last Game of the Season, including 5-0 SU at home… 36-23 SU at home versus AFC opponents, with three losses by more than 11 points… 59-41 SU all home games, with ten losses by more than 15 points… 4-0 ATS as a home dog of more than 7 points.
Tony Dungy – 8-3 SU & 4-7 ATS in Last Game of the Season, including 5-1 SU & 2-4 ATS at home… 9-2 SU in Last Home Games… 78-24 SU in all home games, with 12 losses by more than 6 points… 9-5 SU & 10-4 ATS as a home dog, including 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS if his team has at least one win on the season – and – 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS versus an opponent with a winning record.
Jon Gruden – 4-5 SU & ATS in Last Game of the Season, including 2-3 SU & ATS at home… 3-6 SU & ATS in Last Home Games… 52-32 SU & 44-38-2 ATS all home games, including 12-5 SU with a winning record versus and opponent with a losing record (two losses by more than 3 points)… 16-4 SU & 15-5 ATS at home off a SU favorite loss, including 14-2 SU & 13-3 ATS if current win percentage is .454 or better, and 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS if current win percentage is .454 or better and they are hosting an opponent with a win percentage less than .666… 9-5-1 ATS as a home dog, including 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS versus and opponent off a loss.
In closing, as you can readily decipher, each coach is in a role in which they proven they can handle. Will they rest the regulars? That remains to be seen.
Looking at these games from an opponent’s point of view, one would have to agree that both New England and Tennessee have reasons to play. The Pats to preserve a perfect season; the Titans to earn a playoff berth. But Carolina certainly has little-to-no reason to come with an exerted effort, even if they were capable of doing so (0-3 SUATS last three road games, average loss more than 26 PPG).
It will be interesting to see how this theory pans out this final week of the season. Will these home teams mail it in, or will they play with pride? Stay tuned…
