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Opening Line Report
December 31, 2007
By Stephen Nover VegasInsider.com
C an you make Jacksonville a road favorite against Pittsburgh?
There was plenty of discussion about that among the oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. The linemakers decided to recommend an opening number of pick.
Based on early money, Jacksonville deserves to be the favorite. The Jaguars were -2 against the Steelers on Monday afternoon.
Jacksonville had covered its last seven games, before losing during Sunday’s meaningless game at Houston. Fred Taylor, who has had five straight 100-yard rushing games, sat out as did David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew.
The Jaguars have scored 24 or more points in 10 consecutive games. They had gained more than 400 yards in five straight contests, until getting 381 yards versus the Texans behind their second-string skill position players.
“There’s always a pet team the media likes to go with going into the playoffs,” said Tony Sinisi, odds manager for LVSC. “Jacksonville is that team this year."
Maybe the Jaguars don’t have enough firepower to upset New England or Indianapolis, but they certainly have had the Steelers’ number. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville have met each of the past four years and the Jaguars covered every time.
The teams faced each other just three weeks ago in cold, windy and snowy conditions at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field. The Jaguars proved they weren’t a warm-weather club. They out-gained the Steelers, 421-217, and controlled the clock, 37:39-22:21 in winning 29-22 as three-point underdogs.
Given how well the Jaguars have been playing and how poor Pittsburgh looked in losing to Baltimore, plus a season-ending injury to Willie Parker and Ben Roethlisberger being beaten up, oddsmakers realized the Steelers wouldn’t be the better team on a neutral field.
“For us not to make Pittsburgh a favorite at home, well we certainly understand the Jacksonville bandwagon,” Sinisi said.
There also may be a bandwagon growing for San Diego. The Chargers have won and covered during their last six games, holding foes to an average of less than 13 points during this span. Few remember the Chargers’ 1-3 start now.
“The Chargers are playing as well as any team,” Sinisi said.
Bookmakers had the Chargers -8 ½ or 9 Monday afternoon against Tennessee. The line could change once word becomes official if Vince Young is healthy enough to start against San Diego after suffering a quadriceps injury Sunday night.
If 35-year-old backup Kerry Collins has to start, Sinisi said it would be LVSC’s recommendation to adjust the Chargers to 10 ½-point favorites.
“Collins isn’t mobile,” he said. “He would be extremely vulnerable to the Chargers’ pass rushers.”
Tampa Bay should be fresh for its home matchup against the New York Giants. LVSC’s opener on this matchup was Buccaneers -3 ½. Early play has been on the Giants with the line at -3 or 2 ½.
Sinisi believes this is a reaction to how well the Giants played on Saturday night when they nearly dealt New England its first defeat.
“They looked extremely live coming out of that game,” he said of the Giants.
But by going all out in that 38-35 loss, the Giants may be more vulnerable for their matchup against the Buccaneers.
Already without tight end Jeremy Shockey, linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka and running back Derrick Ward, the Giants suffered three more injuries against the Patriots. They’re waiting word on the status of center Shaun O’Hara (knee), linebacker Kawika Mitchell (knee) and cornerback Sam Madison (abdominal strain).
Washington made it three NFC East teams qualifying for the postseason. The Redskins are plus 3 ½ or 4 depending on the sportsbook versus Seattle.
The Redskins have gone 4-0 straight-up and against the spread since the funeral of their slain Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor.
Seattle has the second-best home mark in the NFL since 2001. The Seahawks, though, remain highly unpredictable after giving up 44 points to Atlanta on Sunday. It was only the second time in their last 12 games the Falcons scored more than 20 points. The Seahawks rested their offensive starters in the second half, but played their No. 1 defense most of the game.
Seattle can get to the Super Bowl or be out in one game,” Sinisi said. “You don’t know what you’re going to get with Seattle.”
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