With the Patriots set as two touchdown favorites and the Packers set as a touchdown favorite it seems to be pretty certain in the minds of most people that we will have a Green Bay/New England Super Bowl. That is the match-up that everyone that is not a Chargers or a Giants fan wants to see right? What's not to like, the undefeated Patriots going against the historic Packers, both led by eminently likable and legendary quarterbacks. They are two of the most popular franchises in the league, one in a major Eastern media market and the other serving as the beacon of the Midwest, community owned and the toughest ticket around. What could be better?

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The problem is that the conference championship games do not usually play out as expected, at least in recent years. Last season both home favorites won and covered, with the Bears and the Colts advancing, but those results broke a nine-year streak of at least one road team winning a conference championship game. That's right from 1998 to 2006, at least one Super Bowl representative each year got there by winning on the road. So if you are a Giants or Chargers fan, hold onto hope. If you are a money-line underdog player, you have to like the steep spreads.

Check out the conference championship results since 1998 (home teams in CAPS):

2007
AFC - INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over New England 38-34
NFC - CHICAGO (-2.5) over New Orleans 39-14

2006
AFC - Pittsburgh (+3) over DENVER 34-17
NFC - SEATTLE (-3.5) over Carolina 34-14

2005
AFC - New England (-3) over PITTSBURGH 41-27
NFC - PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) over Atlanta 27-10

2004
AFC - NEW ENGLAND (-3) over Indianapolis 24-14
NFC - Carolina (+4) over PHILADELPHIA 14-3

2003
AFC - OAKLAND (-8) over Tennessee 41-24
NFC - Tampa Bay (+4) over PHILADELPHIA 10-27

2002
AFC - New England (+10) over PITTSBURGH 24-17
NFC - ST. LOUIS (-10.5) over Philadelphia 29-24

2001
AFC - Baltimore (+6) over OAKLAND 16-3
NFC - NY GIANTS (+2.5) over Minnesota 41-0

2000
AFC - Tennessee (+7) over JACKSONVILLE 33-14
NFC - ST. LOUIS (-14.5) over Tampa Bay 11-6

1999
AFC - DENVER (-9) over NY Jets 23-10
NFC - Atlanta (+10.5) over MINNESOTA 30-27

1998
AFC - Denver (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH 24-21
NFC - Green Bay (-2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 23-10

As you can see, road teams are 10-10 straight-up and home favorites are just 7-9 against the spread (home underdogs going 1-3) in the last ten years. If you are a Patriots fan another reason to be worried is that double-digit favorites are 0-4 against the spread in the last ten years, losing twice outright in conference championship games. You'll notice that the spreads this year are unusually high for a conference championship game based on the recent numbers. The last time both games featured spreads of seven or greater was in 2002, when both underdogs covered.

It may be tough to envision Eli Manning or Philip Rivers (or gulp, Billy Volek) sprinting out of the tunnel on Super Bowl Sunday but if the last ten years of conference championship games provide a reasonable estimation, one of those quarterbacks will earn a career highlight win this week. Both the Giants and Chargers face brutal travel situations and are dealing with injuries but neither team was expected to win last week and both pulled it out.

Historically the divisional playoff rounds typically favor the home favorite, but last week those teams went 1-3 against the spread last week. Last year home favorites went 0-4 against the spread in the divisional round, so trends obviously are not always meaningful and can often change course.