Editor's note: Joe Nelson (74-56, 57%, +1,270) posted a 3-0 record during championship weekend, so keep any eye out for his Super Bowl package. Click to win!

Last week I warned of the success of road teams in conference championship games. Although it seems logical to expect the home teams to have the upper hand given the tough travel situations faced in the playoffs, at least one road team has won a conference championship game outright in ten of the last eleven years now, with the Giants delivering last week. The Super Bowl provides a neutral field but there have been some trends to look out for in the big game.

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Favorites dominated the Super Bowl between 1985 (Super Bowl XIX) and 1995 (Super Bowl XXIX) with favorites covering eight of the 11 games including several blowouts delivered mainly by the 49ers and Cowboys.
 
Things have changed in recent years however and there has been a shift towards underdogs in recent years. Since 1996 (Super Bowl XXX), underdogs have gone 6-3-2 in the big game. With the current spread set at close to two touchdowns another blowout could be in the works but the underdog shift has occurred with the big favorites as well. Double-digit favorites went 4-0 against the spread from 1986 to 1995 but have not won since, going 0-3-1 in four instances since 1996. The last two double-digit favorites, the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII, both lost outright.

Given the surprise run of the Giants, it is interesting to examine how teams have done in the Super Bowl when they were not expected to be there. Teams that won outright as underdogs to advance to the Super Bowl have gone 10-6-1 against the spread in the big game since 1981. In the last four instances, those teams have covered in all four of the Super Bowls (New England in 2002, Carolina in 2003, Tampa Bay in 2004, and Pittsburgh in 2006). The last three teams that had to win twice in a row as an underdog to advance to the Super Bowl (like the Giants have had to do) are also 3-0 against the spread in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh in 2006 also had to win on the road three times to get to the Super Bowl but unlike the Giants, the Steelers were favored in the first playoff game that year at Cincinnati.

Twice in the last 10 years has the Super Bowl been a rematch of a regular season game. In both of those games the team that lost the regular season game ended up getting revenge and winning the Super Bowl. The Patriots beat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI after losing 24-17 in the 2001 regular season at home and the Rams beat the Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV after losing at Tennessee 21-24 in the 1999 regular season. The Patriots defeated the Giants on the road 38-35 in the nationally televised Saturday night game in the final week of the regular season. That game occurred just over a month prior to the Super Bowl rematch and was one of the most memorable games of the regular season.

Obviously we overanalyze the Super Bowl and try to come with any angle that we can. Unfortunately there are just too few instances to come up with anything truly meaningful. It is fun to dissect the game with an eye towards history, and judging by the recent trends listed above the Giants may have a better shot than most will give a chance.