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Opening Line Report
January 21, 2008
By Stephen Nover VegasInsider.com
T he dream Super Bowl matchup probably was New England against Green Bay and Brett Favre.
Still, a New York Giants-Patriots Super Bowl game could draw a record betting handle in Nevada. Las Vegas bookmakers are anticipating their first $100 million betting Super Bowl.
The most money wagered on a Super Bowl game in Nevada was $94.5 million set two years ago when Pittsburgh beat Seattle, according to state Gaming Control Board figures.
There’s tremendous interest with New England trying to become the first 19-0 team, while the Giants bring heavy East Coast financial backing to the game.
Anticipating there would be more New England money, the oddsmakers at Las Vegas Consultants opened the Patriots -14. Early action, however, has been mostly on the Giants. The number has dropped to -12 at many places after opening 13 ½.
The lowest number any of the six LVSC linesmakers made on the game was -13. Some had it New England -15. So they split the difference with an opening line suggestion of 14.
“I’d rather be on the high side with New England,” said LVSC senior linesmaker Mike Seba.
There aren’t many left, though, blindly just playing the Patriots. Dealing with bad weather and inflated lines, the Patriots are just 2-8 against the spread in their past 10 games.
The weather figures to be perfect in Arizona for the Super Bowl. So could the Patriots. New England has had a tendency during the second half of the season to play up or down to the level of their competition. That’s fine for winning games, but it doesn’t cover many pointspreads.
The Giants nearly upset the Patriots on Dec. 29 as a 13-point home ‘dog, before blowing a 12-point third quarter lead in a 38-35 loss. That was one of the Giants’ best efforts of the season.
“It helps the Giants that they have played them,” Seba said. “But I don’t think they saw New England’s best game. They’ll definitely see it this time.”
The Patriots didn’t play that well Sunday against San Diego, particularly Tom Brady, who threw three interceptions. Nonetheless, the Patriots prevailed, 21-12. They didn’t cover the spread, though, for the fifth straight time.
The LVSC oddsmakers recommended an opening ‘over/under’ of 55. The total was at 53 ½ or 54 depending on the sportsbook Monday afternoon.
The Patriots have gone ‘over’ in 12 of their 18 games this season. The Giants went ‘under’ during their first two playoff games, but went ‘over’ the closing 41-point total against Green Bay when the game went into overtime. The Giants beat the Packers as a closing 7 ½-point underdog, 23-20.
Seba anticipates the total and side to come back up again. Usually there’s a lull in the Super Bow betting action after an initial flurry when the number is first released. But around 90 percent of the money comes during the final 48 hours before kickoff.
“The number went down, but I could see it going back up,” Seba said. “I’m not sure if it can reach 14, but it could.
“I’m surprised the total went down. But I could see that, too, coming up as the game gets closer.”
New England covered its first eight games this season. Yet the Giants have the better pointspread mark at 13-6. The Patriots are 10-8 against the number.
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