Editor’s Note: Marc Lawrence finishes up the pro football season strong with hard-core analysis and expert predictions. Don’t miss out his winners on Super Bowl XLII. Click to win!
Hide your heart, girls…Eli’s coming. Forget about Peyton. Suddenly he’s old news. Eli Manning and the record-setting Giants take on Tom Brady and his record-setting 18-0 Patriots in SB XLII.
New England’s quest for perfection is superseded by the AFC’s dominance in the Super Bowl, where they’ve captured eight of the last 10 games. In fact, they’ve also held the upper hand over the NFC throughout this decade, posting a 246-193-1 SU & 233-192-15 record entering this season, including 66-8 SU & 44-28-2 ATS as favorites of seven or more points.
This year, however, the NFC manned up and battled its brethren toe-to-toe, going 32-32 SU - including 17-15 SU & 15-15-2 ATS with teams that sported a record of .500 or better.
Hmmm. Before we knee-jerk on that thought alone, let’s closely examine what it is that each team brings to the table in this contest.
For all intents and purposes, New England’s season was galvanized when Bill Belichick was called out in the ‘Spygate’ scandal. It served as the impetus they were looking, rallying around the incident and bursting out of the gates with eight wins and covers during the first half of the season, by an average win margin of 25.5 PPG while beating the spread by +117.5 points.
Since then though, while still managing to remain undefeated, they enter the Super Bowl on a dismal 2-8 ATS slide. In the process their average win margin dipped to 12.2 PPG and its net-spread fell faster than Britney’s panties at a posh Vegas club, closing out -40.5 points. Not exactly endearing numbers for a team installed as two touchdown favorites against a ‘dog that refuses to believe it doesn’t belong.
The Giants incredible run to Glendale occurred despite a 0-2 start (losses to Dallas and Green Bay). Since then they have won an NFL record 10 straight road games, going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread +83.5 points in those games away from the Big Apple. They also handed Green Bay QB Brett Favre his first-ever home loss in games from December out against an opponent off a win in which the Packers entered with a win percentage of .640 or more (now 17-1 and 16-1-1 ATS).
In addition, they become only the third team in NFL history to make the ‘big game’ by winning three consecutive playoff games on the road. They’ll have two weeks to refuel while dissecting a season-ending 38-35 loss to the Pats, as 13.5 point home dogs, a game in which the Giants lead 28-16 in the second half.
From a coaches perspective it’s hard to refute Bill Belichick’s sterling record, especially in the post-season. 15-3 SU (12-0 as a favorite), but only 9-8-1 ATS. And Over/Under fans should take note that his teams are 7-11 UNDER in the playoffs.
For what it’s worth, Belichick is 13-1 SU in his career in games when the Over/Under total in the game is posted at 49 or higher. He also owns top-notch numbers against NFC opposition as a head coach in the NFL, going 36-15 SU & 30-19-2 ATS against the confederates.
Inside those numbers is a 14-5 SU/ATS mark when his team is off an ATS loss and also a 25-10 SU/ATS record if they scored less than 28 points in their previous game.
His counterpart, Tom Coughlin, answers with a bevy of good numbers, too. Included is a 6-2 ATS mark as a dog of 11-plus points and a nifty 17-11 ATS log in games off a SU dog win (6-1 SUATS the last seven). Coughlin is also a very dangerous 8-7 SU & 9-4-2 ATS in his NFL career in games against undefeated teams!
Sure-shot Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady’s numbers speak for themselves. He’ll enter SBXLII with a career record of 100-25 SU & 76-45-4 ATS (but only 11-11 ATS as a double-digit favorite). Included is a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post-season with three Super Bowl rings to show for his efforts.
Giant QB Manning is just beginning to create his own legacy. As a starter in the NFL, Eli is 32-27 SU & 35-24 ATS, but 19-9-1 ATS away from home. He’s also a noteworthy 29-12-1 ATS in games after the Giants scored more than 17 points the previous game.
In closing, some SUPER BOWL FACTS to ponder:
The last 12 Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 9-3 SU & 4-6-2 ATS
The last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-11-1 ATS
Teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU & 21-2-1 ATS
Teams who score less than 20 points are 0-23 SU & 3-19-1 ATS
Since 1980 teams who won a playoff game in overtime are 5-10 SU & 7-8 ATS in their next game, including 0-2 SU & ATS if the next game had Roman Numerals attached to it.
Whew. A lot of numbers to digest, to be sure. The bottom line is that the pressure is squarely on New England to become the first team since the 1972 Dolphins to escape a season unscathed from start to finish. The problem is they are leaking oil (point-spread) badly while their opponent is super-surging. Yes, Eli’s coming and the cards say… check back next week for more super fodder on Super Bowl XLII.
