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Super Bowl Myths
January 30, 2008
By Stephen Nover VegasInsider.com
T here are a lot of myths out there when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl.
One such myth is that only the public is playing. This is the one football game where public money does outweigh wiseguy money, but professional gamblers still get very involved.
These wiseguys get involved betting proposition wagers. One Las Vegas professional gambler said he’ll put out $100,000 on various Super Bowl props and expects to make $20,000. He said he’s never had a losing Super Bowl betting on props. His worst Super Bow was last year, he said, when the return on his investment was six percent.
Super Bowl props have become big business. Some hotels and online sportsbooks put out hundreds of them. It’s impossible for the house to put the right number on every one. There are a lot of sharps anxious to fire as soon as the props come out, which usually occurs a couple of days after the championship games.
Some places, for instance, put out a pick’em type opening number on which team would have the longest kickoff return. This isn’t a coin flip type of line, though, with a matchup of New York against New England. The Patriots are big favorites in the game so they figure to be kicking off more than the Giants.
Professional bettors usually play more underdogs than favorites during the NFL season. It’s a myth in the Super Bowl, however, that wiseguys are looking to take a plus price. It’s just the opposite, in fact, when it comes to playing props.
Bookmakers shade their prop bets knowing the public likes to play on or over rather than the negative. This way bettors can cheer and pull for a certain thing or player. Tom Brady, for instance, averaged 293 yards passing in 18 games this season counting the post-season.
Try finding that number on an ‘over/under’ prop on Brady’s passing yards for the Super Bowl. Bookmakers know the betting public wants to root for Brady so they jack his number up.
Most people assume the best value is betting a little to win a lot. That’s why they’ll take big odds on something unusual to happen such as a safety.
Wiseguys don’t follow this when it comes to the Super Bowl. They realize the best value is laying a big price to win a little such as there will not be overtime. There has yet to be an overtime game in Super Bowl history and that streak shouldn’t be in jeopardy during this matchup with New England currently a 12-point favorite.
“Don’t look for plus prices that look like even money plays,” one professional gambler said. “They’re sucker plays. The way to make money is to play the minuses. That’s the way the line has moved. That should tell you right there, which is the right side.”
Most places won’t let you parlay prop bets. But it’s a myth that it can’t be done. Sharps are able to do it, just not by conventional means.
If a wiseguy for instance likes the Patriots to cover the spread, he’ll look to play the Patriots on less marquee props such as first team to make six first downs and other obscure yardage type props.
There’s a myth that Internet books are better to play at than Las Vegas hotels. Online books certainly are convenient. They also can offer certain kinds of outlandish props that Nevada casinos can’t.
But online bookmakers also can cancel wagers they deem a mistake, without any recourse for the bettor. That’s not the case in Nevada where casino bookmakers must live with any mistakes or risk dealing with strict state regulatory agencies on player disputes.
Still another myth is that it’s near impossible to consistently middle or side Super Bowl props. It’s actually quite easy – if you have the time and resources to scour all the different books.
Just in Nevada it’s possible to find one book listing a ‘yes/no’ prop on the shortest field goal being 24 yards, while another place uses 28 yards for the shortest field goal number.
A number of places are using a prop on how many rushing attempts Laurence Maroney will have. Some books have ‘over/under’ 19 ½, while others are using ‘over/under’ 20 ½ setting up a middle if Maroney should finish with 20 rushes.
Granted you’ll have to search for these types of props, but they certainly can be worth the time and effort.
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