Editor's Note: Tony Stoffo's winning preseason selections, plus his regular season plays can be purchased in his NFL Season Package. Click to win!
Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money. In the 2007 NFL preseason at VegasInsider.com, my selections went a documented 12-3 (80%). All these plays were found in my 2007 preseason report I released.
In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don't care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage. A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason is that there will be four new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. However I have found some nice hidden trends that can still show us a profit with these teams.
Here are the four teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:
Atlanta - Mike Smith
Baltimore - John Harbaugh
Miami - Tony Sparano
Washington - Jim Zorn
OK so here are this year's highly rated preseason money making trends for each team.
Arizona – Ken Whisenhunt the former offensive coordinator for the Steelers in his first year as head coach for the Cardinals showed no interest in trying to win any preseason games going 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread. Plus he showed defense was not one of his top priorities as Arizona in its first 3 preseason games saw the Over be the right side with an average of 56 points being scored. This tendency carried over into the regular season with the Cardinals seeing11 of their 16 games going over the posted total. So right off the bat let’s keep an eye out for some high scoring games from the Cardinals this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Leinatt, Kurt Warner, Brian St. Pierre, and Anthony Morelli
Atlanta – After last year’s mess in Atlanta the Falcons start fresh with a new general manager in Thomas Dimitroff who comes from the Patriots organization and their new head coach will be Mike Smith who has helped build the solid Jacksonville defense as their defensive coordinator over the past 5 seasons. I look for Smith to immediately bring in the Jaguars mentality of a solid running game and a bruising defense. All this will lead to some very low scoring games this preseason for the Falcons making the under the strong value play here. Plus have to throw in that no matter who the head coach has been in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last four years the Falcons have gone a perfect 4-0 outscoring their opposition 104-42. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on August 22nd when they play Tennessee at home.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chris Redman, Joey Harrington, Matt Ryan and D.J. Shockley
Baltimore – Strange coaching decision for the Ravens replacing long time head coach Brian Billick with John Harbaugh who has numerous NFL coaching experience. However has never even been an offensive or defensive coordinator in the league. Last season Harbaugh was the secondary coach of the Eagles. His coordinators will be Cam Cameron after his horrible year down in Miami as head coach, and will retain the Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. With no preseason experience I look for Harbaugh to lean on Ryan as the preseason begins. Saying this there is a very strong trend that can make you some money on the Ravens this preseason. Baltimore in the past three preseason’s have played some really low scoring games with the under going 8-3. With all the new coaches trying to figure things out I really feel this solid trend will continue this season.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, Joe Flacco
Buffalo – This will be Dick Jauron’s third preseason as head coach of the Bills. In his first two years as head coach has produced just a .500 record in the preseason going 4-4 against the spread. However if we take a closer look some interesting betting trends have already started to form. In the Bills first preseason game Jauron has had them ready to play covering both of his week one preseason games. This continues a trend that has seen the Bills go a perfect 4-0 against the spread in week # 1 of the preseason over the past 4 years. So our first play on the Bills this preseason will be on August 9th with they visit the Redskins. While just the opposite is true in their dress rehearsal game where all the regulars play as Jauron puts no importance in winning this game as the Bills have lost this game under Jauron’s the last 2 years which also continues a losing trend while the Bills have lost this important game the last 4 preseason’s. So keep an eye on when the Bills pay a visit to the Colts on August 24th and finally in their last preseason game where the majority of the teams care nothing about. Jauron has done very well winning both of his last preseason games outright as a dog. So as you can see the Bills are a perfect example of have you can hit some nice plays in the preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: J.P. Losman, Trent Edwards, Matt Baker, and Gibran Hamdan
Carolina – With John Fox as head coach the Panthers are all over the place in the preseason thru the years showing no consistent trends that we can rely on a yearly basis. Except for one extremely strong trend that has seen Carolina lose their last preseason game of the year to the Steelers the last 3 years. So let’s look for this trend to continue this year as the Panthers pay a visit to Pittsburgh on August 28th.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jake Delhomme, Brett Basanez, Matt Moore, and Lester Ricard
Chicago – The Bears under Lovie Smith has just been another team with only a .500 record over the past 3 preseason’s going 6-6. However a monster preseason total play has developed over the years with Chicago. The Bears have seen the 'under' go 5-0 in their last preseason game of the year the past 5 years with 4 of these were against the Browns. This match up occurs again this year on August 30th when the Bears play Cleveland on the road.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, Caleb Hanie
Cincinnati – In the early years of the Marvin Lewis rein as the Bengals head coach. The preseason was nothing to talk about. However things have started to turn around as Cincinnati has won 7 of their last 9 preseason games. Plus a strong trend has developed that has seen the Bengals go a perfect 3-0 in their final game of the preseason. This year we should get the Bengals as a nice dog as they pay a visit to Indianapolis on August 28th.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Carson Palmer, Jordan Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jeff Rowe.
Cleveland – The winning ways that Romeo Crennel brought over from New England continued in last year’s preseason as the Browns under his leadership have now gone 9-3 against the spread. With a solid quarterback rotation again look for the Browns to continue their winning ways once again this year in the preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, Ken Dorsey.
Dallas – In his first year as the Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips surprisingly played a wide open style in the preseason with Dallas falling 1 point shy of having all their 4 games go over the total. Watch the Cowboys early this preseason to see if this trend continues again this year especially with Romo and Johnson leading the way. As per the spread last year the Cowboys covered both games at home, while losing both games on the road. Something to keep an eye out for this upcoming preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tony Romo, Brad Johnson, Richard Bartel
Denver – Head coach Mike Shanahan used to be a solid money maker in the preseason however has gone only 4-4 against the spread over the past 2 seasons. But what really still stands out is the Broncos willingness to dominate in their final preseason game of the year going 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 with their only loss coming back in 04.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jay Cutler, Patrick Ramsey, Darrell Hackney
Detroit – Talk about a team that doesn’t like to play preseason games and that’s the Detroit Lions. In each of the past 4 years the Lions have gone 1-3 against the spread which adds up to a 4-12 record. Plus they are a perfect 0-4 in their annual dress rehearsal game for the preseason. In this year’s dress rehearsal game the Lions have to play a Browns team that loves to win in the preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, and Drew Stanton
Green Bay – In his first year as head coach of the Packers Mike McCarthy showed no signs of being interested in winning preseason games as Green Bay went 1-3 against the spread and last year Green Bay could only manage a 2-2 record. The Packers have also been blown out in their last 3 dress rehearsal game being outscored 96-33. With a very poor quarterback rotation in place for this year look for the Green Bay preseason woes to continue once again especially in week # 3 when they have to go play the Broncos in their dress rehearsal game.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Aaron Rogers, Brian Brohm, Matt Flynn
Houston – Gary Kubiak has brought the Denver preseason winning ways to Houston with him as the Texans have went 5-2-1 against the spread in his first 2 years as head coach. With a very solid quarterback rotation in place I look for the Texans to again be a winning proposition this preseason. Plus look for a strong showing in week # 3 against the Cowboys as Kubiak and the Texans have covered both of their dress rehearsal games. Plus have to add in here is that the Texans have seen 6 of their last 8 preseason games go over the total.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels, Shane Boyd
Indianapolis – Even though Manning will be out for the preseason after his minor knee surgery. It will not affect the Colts preseason trends for this year as he rarely puts in any serious time in the preseason games. So there are two late preseason trends that we always watch for with the Colts. Over the past 6 years Indianapolis has been a money maker in their dress rehearsal game going 5-1 against the spread, this year’s dress rehearsal game is on August 25th against Buffalo. While just as impressive is how poorly they play in their last preseason game of the year going 1-5 against the spread. Look for both of these solid trends to continue this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jim Sorgi, Jared Lorenzen, Quinn Gray, Adam Tafralis.
Jacksonville – The Jaguars are sure known for their defense in the regular season. However head coach Jack Del Rio has pulled in the reins during the last 3 preseason’s allowing the Jaguars to open things up offensively as they work on improving their passing game. As a result the over has gone 9-3. Look for this trend to again be a money maker this year as the odds makers continue to post low totals on all of the Jacksonville preseason games.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: David Garrard, Cleo Lemon, Todd Bouman
Kansas City – One strong early trend to watch this preseason for Kansas City is the Chiefs definitely don’t look forward to playing their first preseason game of the year going 0-5 against the spread the last 5 years. Plus the Chiefs overall continue to show no interest at all in trying to win under head coach Herm Edwards in the preseason going 3-13 against the spread over the past 4 seasons.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen
Miami – With Bill Parcells taking over as executive VP for football operations of the Dolphins, and surrounding himself with all of his Dallas buddies. Have to look for some improvement from Miami this preseason as Parcells always tried to win in the preseason. Even when he took over a bad Cowboys team he immediately started winning in the preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chad Pennington, Josh McCown, John Beck, Chad Henne
Minnesota – In his first 2 years as the head coach of the Vikings Brad Childress has started to show some trends that can help us make some money this preseason. It’s obvious that Brad Childress does not care about the opening preseason game as he just goes thru the motions losing both in low scoring games. While he is one of the few coaches that actually tries to win the final preseason game as the Vikings have covered against the Cowboys over the past 2 years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tarvaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte, Brooks Bollinger, John David Booty
New England – Belichick and the Patriots used to be a big money maker in the preseason thru the years. However since the Super Bowl rings have started to add up the preseason has just become a waste of time. The only game that Belichick tries in know is the Patriots dress rehearsal game where they have gone 5-1 against the spread with their last lost coming back in 04. This year’s dress rehearsal game is against the Eagles at home on August 22nd.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez, Kevin O'Connell
New Orleans – In his 2 years as head coach of the Saints Sean Payton has gone just 4-5 against the spread. However a nice value play for this upcoming preseason is that New Orleans has lost 3 of their 4 home games under Payton.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Drew Bees, Mark Brunell Tyler Palko
New York Giants – The Giants are coming off of a preseason which saw them lose 3 of their 4 games back on 07. Now with a Super Bowl win behind them and head coach Tom Coughlin no longer worrying sweating his job. I look for a rather lackluster preseason from the men in blue.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Eli Manning, Jared Lorenzen, David Carr, Anthony Wright
New York Jets – In his two years as head coach of the Jets Eric Mangini has gone just 4-4 against the spread. The only trend that is starting to develop is that under Mangini the Jets are 3-1 in their preseason road games. Key play this year may be against the Super Bowl champs on August 23rd.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Brett Favre, Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge
Oakland – A couple of solid trends to checkout for the Raiders this preseason. First of all Oakland is a perfect 4-0 against the spread at home over the past 2 years. Plus they are a solid 10-3 under during the past 3 years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: JaMarcus Russell, Andrew Walter, Marques Tuiasosopo
Philadelphia – Andy Reid and the Eagles show no trends that we can take advantage of going 12-13 in the preseason over the last six years. However we still can make some money on the Eagles as Reid doesn’t go all out in the first preseason game of the year going a perfect 0-4 in their opener.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Donovan McNabb, AJ Feeley, Kelvin Kolb
Pittsburgh – In last year’s Preseason Profit report I told you that Mike Tomlin took over as the new head coach of the Steelers. Tomlin was the Minnesota Vikings' defensive coordinator in 2006 after spending the previous five seasons as defensive backs coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In his first preseason as defensive coordinator last year with the Vikings defense ruled in the preseason with Minnesota giving up only 16, 10, 7, and 10 points. May be something we can take advantage of in his first preseason as head coach of the Steelers. Well this information was right on as the Steelers saw 4 of their 5 preseason games stay under the total. This builds on a strong trend that has now seen the under go 8-1 over the past 2 preseason’s for the Steelers. This is a solid trend here guys so keep your eyes on this total play this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Ben Roethlisberger, Dennis Dixon, Mike Potts St Louis – In his first 2 years as the head coach of the Rams Scott Lineham has only gone 2-6 against the spread, and it’s quite obvious he has no intention of trying to win preseason games. It should also be noted in his 2 dress rehearsal games the Rams were not competitive against the Chiefs and Raiders making St Louis a definite go against this preseason.
St Louis – In his first 2 years as the head coach of the Rams Scott Lineham has only gone 2-6 against the spread, and it’s quite obvious he has no intention of trying to win preseason games. It should also be noted in his 2 dress rehearsal games the Rams were not competitive against the Chiefs and Raiders making St Louis a definite go against this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Marc Bulger, Trent Green, Bruce Gradkowski, Brock Berlin
San Diego – Norv Turner took over the reins of the Chargers last season. In Turner’s last head coaching job with the Raiders back in 04 and 05 a solid trend can be taken away from it that can give us an edge for the Chargers preseason games. First of all in both of his dress rehearsal games in Oakland the Raiders went 0-2 against the spread, this trend continued for Turner last year as the Chargers lost at Arizona. So watch for when the Chargers play the Seahawks on August 25th this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Phillip Rivers, Billy Volek, Charlie Whitehurst
San Francisco – In Mike Nolan’s 3 years as head coach, the 49ers have gone 8-4 against the spread in the preseason. However what really sticks out is Nolan’s impressive home record which as seen the 49’ers go 5-1 against the spread. San Francisco’s two home preseason games this year are against Green Bay and San Diego on August 16th and 29th.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Alex Smith, J.T. O'Sullivan, Shaun Hill
Seattle – The Seahawks' head Coach Mike Holmgren doesn’t put much emphasize in preseason games, going 11-13 ATS the last six years. However a strong trend has developed that has seen 10 of the last 14 Seattle games go over the total including 3-1 last year. Definitely something for us to keep your eye on this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Frye, Seneca Wallace
Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers have one of the top preseason trends that we look forward to every year. Tampa Bay has been a perfect 6-0 in their opening preseason game the last six years. I look for this trend to easily continue this year with the great quarterback rotation that the Buccaneers have this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chris Simms, Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese, Luke McCown, Josh Johnson
Tennessee – In previous preseason’s, Titans head coach Steve Fisher had won 75 percent of his games However things started to turn around in recent years especially in the Titans preseason opener where Tennessee has now lost for 3 straight years. With the top two Tennessee quarterbacks probable not seeing much action again in their preseason opener definitely makes them a fade once again this season.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Ingle Martin
Washington – With new head coach Jim Zorn retaining 10 of Joe Gibbs coaching staff can’t see much improvement in the preseason from a Redskins squad that has gone 3-8 against the spread over the past 3 years. Something to really watch for is that Washington has lost their last preseason game the last 3 years. Also have to add in here is with Zorn bringing in his wide open version of the West Coast offense watch for some high scoring games from the Redskins this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Colt Brennan