My Week 3 NFL Challenge picks translated into another letdown. A 2-3 performance brings my seasonal record to a disappointing 40-percent success rate. Alright, but there is a sunny side to this story as my pay-for-picks are on a 4-1 firestorm in the last five and 12-5 for the season. Click here to purchase this week's winning NFL selections.
But let’s make this clear, the Handicapping Challenge is a separate entity from Vegasinsider.com’s Expert Sports picks. With that said, it’s time to turn this thing around.
As stated in my Week 3 rewind, underdogs suffered yet again with a 3-13 straight up record and a 6-10 ATS slip-and-slide performance, bringing the season total to a 6-25 SU and 11-18-2 ATS billing.
1.) Cleveland (+3 ½) at Cincinnati – 1:00 p.m. EDT
The battle of Ohio will witness two of the most underachieving teams in football heading out to Paul Brown Stadium. Both squads are winless to begin the season and at the end of the day someone will be walking away with their first victory.
I pick the Browns in this one because more then anything, the team is due for a big win against their intrastate rival. In the last 10 head-to-head clashes, Cleveland is 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS. Without a solid performance from the Browns’ QB Derek Anderson (405 passing yards, two touchdowns), expect the very near future to usher in the Brady Quinn era.
Take the names out of a hat for the Bengals and you’ll see statistical numbers all representative to the poor play exhibited on the field. There was an improvement in moving the ball in a loss against the Giants last week, but main stay WR Chad Johnson has yet to find the end zone, let alone breaking the century mark in receiving yards on the season!
In what should be a close and ugly affair, I’m going for the Brownies as the underdogs this week.
Final Score: Cleveland 24, Cincinnati 21
2.) San Francisco (+6 ½) at New Orleans – 1:00 p.m. EDT
What could sound like handicapping challenge suicide, there’s no reason why the 49ers won’t surprise in New Orleans this week. Back-to-back defeats against Washington (29-24) and Denver (34-32) are huge reasons for concern for the Saints, not to mention TE Jeremy Shockey taking a seat on the bench for three-to-six weeks with a sports hernia, WR David Patten inability to practice with the team this week because of a groin injury and game player linebacker Scott Fujita’s status as ‘questionable’ with an ailing knee.
Injuries aside, San Francisco should continue to impress the betting public and fans alike with signal caller J.T. O’Sullivan passing for 705 yards with three TDs and only one pick in three games this season. Could this be the year that the ‘Niners finally settle with a QB worthy of taking snaps on the season?
If San Fran’s RB Frank Gore (287 rushing yards, three TDs) can continue moving the ball with authority (both running and receiving) and WRs Issac Bruce and Bryant Johnson find openings down field, there’s no doubt that New Orleans will have problems stopping what’s becoming a powerful offense from the Bay area.
While the Saints will look to end their two-game skid with a win, 6 ½-points should award 49ers’ backers with the win.
Final Score: New Orleans 30, San Francisco 27
3.) Tennessee (-3 ½) vs. Minnesota – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Ok, ok, so veteran field general Gus Frerotte was able to help his Vikings team nail down the first win of the season by throwing for a conservative 204 yards with one TD and a pick. But let’s not get too excited because there’s another backup signal caller in the NFL making headlines.
Tennessee’s QB Kerry Collins hasn’t set the gridiron on fire, but one pick and a 90.5 QB rating has been all the support the Titans need. Move the ball into the end zone once or twice and let the stingy Tennessee defense do the rest.
Look for the Titans to win this game on a pivotal turnover (as both squads will be susceptible to coughing the skin up) with home field advantage serving its purpose. And while the Vikings do have RB Adrian Peterson to fall back on, Titans backs’ Chris Johnson and goal line specialist LenDale White have done more then enough to help their team grab a 3-0 start in 2008.
Final Score: Tennessee 17, Minnesota 13
4.) Philadelphia (-3 ½) at Chicago
Giving up any amount of points on the road is a shaky choice to make but what the heck. The Eagles show up one game with an offense more combustive then a warehouse full of plastic explosives, only to adjust their game plan and score 15 in tight win over the defensive oriented Steelers.
So which Philly team takes the field against Chicago on Sunday night? How about a winning Eagles team? The Bears seem to be another unpredictable entity in the NFL for yet another year. Chicago’s QB Kyle Orton, too me at least, is far from the offensive answer in the Windy City and as was proven in the Tampa Bay loss (27-24), the defense can’t hold the organization on its back for four quarters.
Without throwing massive amounts of trends and statistics, the gut feeling goes with the Eagles and signal caller Donovan McNabb. Of course we have to be weary of RB Brian Westbrook ‘s ankle injury and WR Reggie Brown’s horrible Week 3 performance, but don’t fret. Eagles win by at least a TD. Final Score: Philadelphia 28, Chicago 20
5.) Baltimore (+7 ½) at Pittsburgh
My third and final ‘dog bet has Baltimore going down to the wire with a banged up Pittsburgh team on Monday night.
While the Ravens are in for a long night against another defensive oriented team, I’m banking on a combination of running attacks involving FB Le’Ron McClain (152 yards, two TDs), RB Ray Rice and banged up back Willis McGahee to help carry the load. QB Joe Flacco is still yet to prove much, although his interception numbers are zero (a good thing for the Ravens).
You can’t throw Pittsburgh under the buss because RB Parker takes a seat on the bench, but then again, “Big” Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t unleashed the furry through the air. There’s no doubt that Roethlisberger excels without launching a full aerial assault but the defense, holding opponents to a league second best 234 YPG and allowing just 12.7 PPG, must be front and center.
The Ravens have a high possibility of losing outright but I’ll take the touchdown and a half in this spot.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 17
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
