|
Minnesota at New Orleans
October 6, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards owns a 15-10 record (60%, +410) in the NFL, including a 3-1 mark for Monday Night Football. Click to win now with Brian's guaranteed selection for tonight!
M onday Night Football returns to The Big Easy this week, as New Orleans (2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) plays host to Minnesota.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Saints as four-point favorites with a total of 45 ½. As of early this morning, most books had New Orleans listed as a three-point ‘chalk’ with the total at 46 ½.
Sean Payton’s team has won both of its previous games at the Superdome. The Saints won their season opener 24-20 over Tampa Bay as three-point home favorites. In Week 4, they spanked San Francisco 31-17 as 4 ½-point ‘chalk.’
Even with Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey out of the lineup, Drew Brees threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers. Deuce McAllister played a significant role for the first time since tearing his ACL last season. McAllister rushed 20 times for 73 yards and one touchdown. Lance Moore had seven receptions for 101 yards and two TDs.
Minnesota (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) is playing its second road game in as many weeks. Brad Childress’s team is off a 30-17 loss at Tennessee as a 3 ½-point underdog. Gus Frerotte threw for 263 yards, but he didn’t have a touchdown pass and was intercepted once. Adrian Peterson ran for 80 yards and a pair of TDs, but he had just 18 carries.
Peterson has been held to less than 100 yards in back-to-back games, begging the question: Why isn’t he getting the ball more? Peterson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and he’s a home-run threat on every touch. Nevertheless, Minnesota asked Frerotte to throw 43 times against the Titans, while Peterson was given just 18 totes.
The Vikings hope to gash a New Orleans defense that surrenders 122.1 yards per game rushing to rank 20th in run defense. The 27th-ranked Saints’ defense will be missing rookie defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis, who is out 3-4 week with a knee injury.
Another issue Childress needs to get corrected is turnovers. The Vikings put the ball on the ground four times at Tennessee, losing three of those fumbles.
Frerotte left last week’s game with a bruise to his non-throwing shoulder, but he will get his third straight start ahead of Tarvaris Jackson, who was benched after the team lost its first two games. Jackson completed his only pass in relief of Frerotte, but the Titans sacked him twice.
While the Vikings have all sorts of QB issues, the Saints might have the league’s most consistent signal caller. Brees is completing 72.3 percent of his passes for an NFL-best 1,343 yards. The Purdue product has an 8/4 touchdown-interception ratio. Even without his two favorite targets, there has been zero decline in Brees’s production.
Shockey and Colston remain “out” this week, in addition to veteran WR David Patten. The defense will be without Ellis and CB Aaron Glenn.
For the Vikings, the status of three starters is uncertain. Linebacker E.J. Henderson is “doubtful,” while WRs Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice are “questionable.” On the bright side, OT Bryant McKinnie is set to return after serving a four-game suspension.
Berrian, who has 11 catches but zero touchdowns after signing with Minnesota as a free agent, appears more likely to play than Rice. The South Carolina product was injured in Week 2 and didn’t play two weeks ago. Rice only played sparingly in the loss to the Titans.
From 2004-2007, New Orleans posted an abysmal 5-16 spread record as a home favorite. This year, however, the Saints have taken the cash in both home ‘chalk’ roles.
Minnesota has lost both of its road games SU and ATS in 2008. Under Childress, the Vikings are 6-7-2 ATS in 15 games as road underdogs.
The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 overall for the Saints, 1-0-1 in their home games. The ‘over’ has cashed in both of the Vikings’ road games.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Reggie Bush had 15 touches (10 rushing, five receptions) for only 38 yards in last week’s victory.
--The Vikings have won in their last two trips to New Orleans, including their last visit in October of 2004.
--Michael “The Burner” Turner led Atlanta to a 27-24 win Sunday at Green Bay. Turner had 26 carries for 121 yards and one touchdown as the Falcons improved to an improbable 3-2. Rookie QB Matt Ryan shook off a terrible interception in the end zone early in the fourth quarter and threw a 22-yard scoring strike to Roddy White that put the game out of reach. Ryan completed 16-of-26 passes for 194 yards, two TDs and one interception. White caught eight passes for 132 yards, while DE John Abraham collected his NFL-best seventh sack.
--Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers played well despite missing virtually every practice with a shoulder injury this past week. Rodger, who often appeared to be in pain, connected on 25-of-37 throws for 313 yards, three TDs and one interception.
--Dallas Drama Queen WR Terrell Owens is back to his mysterious ways. Can you imagine being around that chafe on a daily basis? When meeting with the media after Sunday’s 31-22 win over the Bengals, T.O. “broke out the Religion Card.” He didn’t take questions after a rambling rant that made little sense and seemed to portray himself as some sort of victim. Owens had just two catches for 83 yards and one touchdown. I smell all sorts of drama this week in Dallas.
--In Miami's 17-10 win over San Diego as a 6 1/2-point home favorite, Dolphins' RB Ronnie Brown had 24 carries for 125 yards and one touchdown. LaDainian Tomlinson had just 12 rushes for 35 yards and zero TDs.
--The Giants and Titans are the only unbeaten teams left.
--Kurt Warner's stat line in Arizona's 41-17 home win over Buffalo with Anquan Boldin out of the lineup: 33/42, 250 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT's. The 3-2 Cardinals lead the NFC West by one game over the 49ers.
--Offensive Player of the Week: Chicago QB Kyle Orton completed 24-of-34 passes for 334 yards, two TDs and no interceptions in a 34-7 win at Detroit. The win gave the Bears sole possession of first place in the NFC North.
--Defensive Player of the Week: Pittsburgh LB Lamarr Woodley had six solo tackles and two sacks in a 26-21 win at Jacksonville. With Baltimore losing at Tennessee, the Steelers took a two-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
|