There’s no time to waste as the NFL Handicapping Challenge steam rolls right into Week 6. Man, it seems like yesterday that the season just started and we’re already more then a quarter of the way through the season.
As for Week 5, favorites were able to harness a 9-5 straight up record but value to take advantage of underdogs failed as a split on the financial record at 7-7 against the spread indicates. Teams such as Indianapolis and Minnesota were able to pull out final quarter victories, surely having bettors on the edge of their couches. On the opposite side of the spectrum included the Giants, Bears and Panthers settling backers with easy wins from the opening kickoff.
1.) New Orleans (-9 ½) vs. Oakland – 1:00 p.m. EDT
I’m very standoffish when it comes to taking double-digit point spreads (in this case a boarder line spread sitting at minus-nine and a half points), but the Saints are in a tough spot this week and another defeat at home could spell disaster for the rest of the season.
New Orleans is coming off a heart breaking loss at home against Minnesota on Monday (30-27), even after its star running back, Reggie Bush tallied a final 176 punt return yards with two touchdowns on the evening. One great reason why the Saints blow out a 1-3 SU Raiders team; the next home game won’t be until Week 12 (Week 7 in Carolina, Week 8 in London, England, Week 9 is a bye, Week 10 in Atlanta and Week 11 in Kansas City). There’s really no option for New Orleans other then to explode in the Superdome this week.
Oakland speaks for itself. Coaching shakeups, a young roster that can be raddled from the onset of a game and a problem executing are problems that plague this Raiders organization. The team is coming off a bye but how much will this work in Oakland's favor? Not much at all.
Final Score: New Orleans 33, Oakland 20
2.) N.Y. Jets (-6 ½) vs. Cincinnati – 1:00 p.m. EDT
While I’m still not a firm believer in the ability of the Jets to repeat an offensive explosion like it executed against Arizona in Week 4, the Bengals are just a sour bunch. Once again Cinci fell to a team whose secondary isn’t top tier in the league, Dallas. The Bengals were in the contest for much of the game, but the skills to seal the deal just weren’t present.
New York’s QB Brett Favre turned up the juice in his passing attack in the win over the Cardinals, throwing for 289 yards, with six (yes, count it, six) trips into the end zone. Favre’s scoring fest in Week 4 can only contribute to the veteran’s mission of learning the Jets playbook while getting on page with his wide outs.
Cincinnati’s signal caller Carson Palmer posted a solid contribution in Dallas (217 passing yards, two TDs with one interception), but the continuing struggles in the running game behind Chris Perry (239 rushing yards, two scores) and WR Chad Johnson’s inability to score effectively (one TD this season) will translate to another big loss on the road.
Final Score: Jets 24, Cincinnati 14
3.) Miami (+2 ½) at Houston – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Houston slinger, Sage Rosenfels helicoptered his way to disaster in a 31-27 loss against Indianapolis. Typifying the organization’s slide for yet another day is a point difference of negative-11.8 points per game. The Texans can score, as they proved in a 30-27 overtime loss in Jacksonville and posting 27 points in the debacle against the Colts, but it’s the defense that can’t be trusted (even against the Dolphins).
Miami has made strides in its game plan since becoming the laughing stock of the league in 2007. While QB Chad Pennington has been sacked seven times this season, his 817 passing yards and completing 67-percent of his throws is finally indication that the Dolphins shouldn’t have to shuffle up slingers like a deck of cards. And RB Ronnie Brown is flashing his skills across the gridiron with six rushing TDs and even a passing score. "Wildcat" is the new word used by fans in the south Florida area these days (direct snap to Brown).
Miami continues to build momentum against Houston gassed and tired from getting their behinds kicked around the grass week in and-week out.
Final Score: Miami 21, Houston 13
4.) Dallas (-5 ½) at Arizona – 4:15 p.m. EDT
Dallas may have internal problems once again with WR Terrell Owens but there are just too many weapons on offense to fall against the Cardinals on the road. The Cowboys will pound away with RB Marion Barber (395 rushing yards, four touchdowns), while it shifts up the game plan with large target, TE Jason Whitten (442 receiving yards, two scores).
With Arizona WR Anquan Boldin out for an undisclosed amount of time after sustaining a brutal hit against the Jets in Week 4, wide out Steve Breaston and RB Tim Hightower will be expected to step up their games. Dallas’ defense is giving up 305.2 YPG with 22.2 PPG this season. Even so, Jerry Jones’ boys will find a way to pull this contest out of reach by the fourth quarter as Arizona struggles to keep up with the high octane, tit-for-tat offensive attack.
Final Score: Dallas 37, Arizona 27
5.) N.Y. Giants (-7 ½) at Cleveland – Monday at 8:35 p.m. EDT
Big Blue will take Monday Night Football by storm in Cleveland, Ohio. New York’s defense has allowed a second best 12.3 PPG, a second best 154 YPG through the air, third best in sack with 15 and finally giving up a total of 328 rushing yards. This is a ‘D’ that breathes down the backs of every opponent on the field.
The Browns… (cricket sounds)…. I don’t even know where to start other then they posted 20 points in a win over Cincinnati in Week 4. Cleveland slinger, Derek Anderson has been straight putrid, 135.5 passing YPG. He’s easily got more interceptions then TD (three TDs compared to six picks) and the rushing game has been non-existent with Jamal Lewis working, or more like floundering for 235 yards with only one score on the ground.
We all know that common sense and rule of thumb doesn’t necessarily translate into how the game will unfold, but with the Giants playing so high above the NFC’s head and QB Eli Manning exploding for what looks to be his best season yet, a win on Monday Night should look to different from what other opponents have gone through against the G-Men (oh, and WR Plaxico Burress will be returning and the Giants were still able to post their season high, 44 points without him in Week 5).
Final Score: New York 30, Cleveland 17
These picks are top heavy in favorites but we'll see how they pan out this week.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
