Ravens at Colts
Most sportsbooks have listed the Colts as four-point home favorites with the total coming in at 38 ½. Bettors can back Baltimore on the money line for a decent value at plus 175 (risk $100 to win $175).
Indianapolis scraped by last week in its 31-27 win on the road against the Texans. Scraped by might be too nice…freaking lucky to win is more like it. How else can you describe the Colts scoring 21 points in the span of a little over two minutes? Gamblers that had Indy as four-point favorites were happy with a push, while Houston backers ripped their hair out.
The Ravens have fallen back to Earth after losing their last two games to Pittsburgh (23-20) and Tennessee (13-10). Despite the close defeats, Baltimore has posted a nice 3-1 record against the spread. One piece of news that has happened recently naming rookie quarterback Joe Flacco as full time starter for the year. Hard to knock the move seeing as Flacco is completing 61.9 percent of his passes for 603 yards. Yet, you want to see him improve that touchdown to interception ratio of 1:4.
Indy hasn’t done well at Lucas Oil Stadium this year, going 0-2 SU and ATS. But the Colts have fared well versus Baltimore as evidenced by their posting a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings.
Bengals at Jets
The betting shops opened the line with New York as a 7 ½-point home “chalk” with a total of 42 ½. Bettors can get take the Bengals to win outright for a plus 280 return. At least those were the numbers before Carson Palmer (shoulder) was listed as “out” for Cincinnati.
The Bengals will be looking to Ryan Fitzpatrick lead them to victory. That could be easier said than done if he plays as he did against Cleveland. The former Harvard gun slinger completed 21 of 35 passes for 156 with three interceptions in Cincy’s 20-12 home loss to the Browns on Sept. 28.
New York is coming off of a bye week after dismantling the Cardinals as one-point home favorites, 56-35. The Jets got a huge performance from Brett Favre, who connected on 70.5 percent of his passes for 289 yards and six touchdowns. He never threw that many scores in a single contest while with the Packers. Favre will now get to take on a team that can’t stop teams from moving the chains through the air (eight passing first downs per game).
The Jets have seen the ‘under’ go 26-20 in games coming off of a bye. Also, New York is 13-8 ATS when having a week off.
Miami at Houston
The Texans have been listed as three-point home favorites with the total standing still at 44 ½. Miami is coming in at a decent price on the money line at plus 130.
The Dolphins are getting the casual fans restless after picking up nice wins at New England (38-13) and versus San Diego (17-10). Much of the success is due to the high school offense Miami is running right now with Ronnie Brown under center. The running back has pulled in 286 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 58 carries.
Houston is still scratching its head after losing to the Colts last Sunday. The Texans don’t anticipate a sequel now that Matt Schaub will be returning as starting QB this week. Schaub played great in his last start, completing 29 of 40 passes for 307 yards for three scores in Week 4 at Jacksonville.
The Texans have seen the ‘over’ go 20-13 in tilts following a loss. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are just 19-29 ATS when covering the spread the previous week since 2005.
Raiders at Saints
Most sportsbooks have tabbed the Saints as seven-point home favorites with the total holding steady at 47 ½. The public can pull off a plus 260 return Oakland comes away with a victory.
Al Davis proved once again that he is a crazy old fart after firing Lane Kiffin as head coach. Then holding a press conference to say why he did it, and then hiring Tom Cable to run the show. By the way, Cable’s head coaching experience was four years at Idaho where he won just 11 games.
New Orleans is looking to bounce back after some shoddy secondary work at home as a three-point “chalk,” 30-27. Any questions about how bad the Saints are against the pass should take note of the 226 yards given up to Gus Frerotte and 12 of Minnesota’s first downs came on pass plays.
The road team is 3-1 SU in the recent meetings of these squads. The Saints are 6-4 ATS in the last 10 games against Oakland since 1985.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
