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Four at Four
October 11, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards has a 15-11 record (58%, +300) in the NFL this year. Click to win now with his guaranteed pick! Brian is 5-3 (63%, +170) in NFL guarantees.
N o need to waste any time here, so let’s jump right into a quartet of four o’clock Eastern kicks for Week 6 of the NFL season.
**Packers at Seahawks**
--Most books are listing this game as a pick ‘em (or Green Bay as a real short ‘chalk’) after Seattle was a short favorite for most of the week. The move was prompted by Friday’s downgrading of Matt Hasselbeck to “doubtful” with a knee injury. The total is in the 44-46 range.
--If Hasselbeck can’t go, Charlie Frye will get the starting nod for the Seahawks, who are 1-1 both SU and ATS at home this season. Frye has a 6-13 record in 19 career starts (all with Cleveland).
--Green Bay (2-3 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) is looking to bounce back from its third straight defeat, a 27-24 home loss to Atlanta as a 5 ½-point favorite. Aaron Rodgers threw for 313 yards and three touchdowns despite being bothered by a shoulder injury suffered the previous week in a 30-21 loss at Tampa Bay.
--Although the shoulder isn’t back to 100 percent, Rodgers will make the sixth start of the season (and his career). For the year, Rodgers has completed 63.2 percent of his throws for 1,274 yards with a 9/4 touchdown-interception ratio.
--The Packers are tied with Minnesota for second place in the NFC North. Both teams are one game back of division-leading Chicago.
--Seattle (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) is coming off an embarrassing 44-6 loss to the Giants in the Meadowlands. The Seahawks trail division-leading Arizona by two games in the NFC West.
--The ‘over’ is 4-1 overall for the Packers, 2-0 in their road games.
--The ‘over’ is 4-0 for Seattle.
**Jaguars at Broncos**
--Most books are listing Denver (4-1 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) as a 3 ½-point favorite at even money (meaning Jags plus 3 ½ is a minus 120 wager). The total is in the 48-49 range, while the Jags are plus 155 on the money line.
--Denver is off a 16-13 home win over Tampa Bay, but the Broncos allowed the Bucs to get a backdoor cover with a late touchdown. Mike Shanahan’s team failed to cover as a four-point ‘chalk.’
--Denver QB Jay Cutler has been nothing short of sensational this year. The Vandy product leads the AFC in passing yards (1,502) and is second in the NFL to New Orleans QB Drew Brees. Cutler has connected on 65.4 percent of his passes with a 10/4 touchdown-interception ratio.
--Denver leads the AFC West by two games over the 2-3 Chargers.
--Jacksonville (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) saw its two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 26-21 home loss to Pittsburgh as a six-point favorite. The Jaguars fell three games behind the division-leading Titans in the AFC South.
--This is the third road game for Jack Del Rio’s squad this year. The Jags previously lost 17-10 at Tennessee but won 23-21 at Indy.
--Since 2004, the Jags own an outstanding 16-7 spread record as road underdogs.
--Jacksonville won 23-14 at Denver in Week 3 last season. The Jags took the outright victory as 3 ½-point underdogs, the same number we have for this contest.
--The ‘over’ is 4-1 overall for the Broncos, 2-1 in their home games.
--The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for the Jags, hitting in three straight games.
**Cowboys at Cardinals**
--The circus is coming to town. That’s what the people of Phoenix should expect when the Cowboys arrive this weekend. Dallas owner Jerry Jones likes characters (and/or clowns) and he certainly has a pair in Terrell Owens and Pacman Jones. Owens has spent the last two weeks being a drama queen and attempting to quench his thirst for attention in his childish/selfish manner. Meanwhile, Jones was back in the news this week for getting into a fight with a bodyguard hired by the Cowboys to keep him out of those sorts of incidents. Like I’ve said many times, Pacman is a career criminal and it’s only a matter of time before he’s dealt a lifetime banishment from the league.
--Most books have Dallas (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) installed as a five-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 50-51 range. The Cardinals are plus 190 on the money line.
--Dallas is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite this year, covering in wins at Cleveland and at Green Bay.
--Arizona (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) handed the Bills their first loss of the year last week by a 41-17 count as a 2 ½-point home favorite. Kurt Warner was magnificent, connecting on 33-of-42 throws for 250 yards, two TDs and zero INT’s. Larry Fitzgerald had both TD catches.
--The Cardinals are 2-0 ATS as home ‘dogs under Ken Whisenhunt.
--Arizona WR Anquan Boldin is “out” for a second straight week after taking that brutal hit in the Meadowlands against the Jets a few weeks back.
--Dallas CB Terence Newman and safety Roy Williams are both “out.”
--The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for the Cowboys, but the ‘under’ is 2-0 in their road games.
--The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Arizona, 2-0 in its home games.
**Eagles at 49ers**
--Most spots have installed Philadelphia (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) as a 4 ½-point favorite with the total in the 42-43 range. The 49ers are plus 180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).
--San Francisco (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) has lost back-to-back games, including last week’s 30-21 home loss to New England as a three-point home underdog.
--Philadelphia RB Brian Westbrook is “out” with two broken ribs. Westbrook is a huge part of the Eagles’ offense and will be sorely missed. He has 194 rushing yards and four TDs. Westbrook also has 14 receptions for 97 yards and two more TDs.
--Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb has completed 64 percent of his throws for 1,296 yards with a 6/2 touchdown-interception ratio.
--Since 2005, the Eagles are 5-7 ATS as road favorites.
--Philadelphia is in the NFC East cellar, making this contest vital if the Eagles want to stay in the hunt for the division and/or a wild-card spot. They trail the division-leading Giants by 2 ½ games.
--San Francisco is 9-9 ATS as a home underdog during Mike Nolan’s four year tenure. The 49ers are 0-2 both SU and ATS as home ‘dogs this season.
--The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for the Eagles, but they have seen the ‘over’ hit in both of their road games.
--The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for the 49ers, 2-1 in their home outings. Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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