Editor's note: Joshua Jacobs has a 16-9 record (64%, +300) in the '08 NFL season. Click here for this week's picks.
We always approach another week in football with similar questions. How will so and so do against a great defense? Can an 0-4 straight up club finally break the slump to earn its first victory of the season? And is giving up double-digit points in a certain spot too much to stomach? However we approach these inquiries, don’t overlook the obvious as well as the minute details that could make or break your bank roll.
Adding to your arsenal of strategies, here’s a Week 6 look at four 1:00 p.m. EDT contest. Good luck to all.
Detroit (+13, 45.5) at Minnesota
Arguably one of the worst teams in the ’08 NFL season, Detroit (0-4 straight up, 0-4 against the spread) will look to stop the profuse bleeding from its jugular when it slams helmets with the new version of the “Purple People Eaters” (alright, maybe not that tough of a defense but this core can still hold their own).
The Lions look to be shacking up the quarterback position after Jon Kitna’s (back) condition has still yet to be released to the public. An MRI was performed on Wednesday but outside of Detroit’s lock room, the results have been kept hush, hush. Kitna has tossed up five interceptions, while finding the end zone five times. The mounting frustration has seemed to take its toll and now reports indicate that third string slinger, Drew Stanton out of Michigan State will handle snaps.
Reflecting the ills of the Lions include a 28th worst, 263 total yards per game produced (72.3 YPG on the ground and 190.8 YPG through the air), a 28th worst, 16.5 points per game scored, followed by the most ineffective defense in the league, allowing a whopping 429 YPG. This formula is as straight forward as it gets; no offense and defense, no results on the field, period.
What could end up helping the hapless Lions is Minnesota’s (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) inability to stop the pass, falling victim to 230 passing YPG allowed (1150 total passing yards), while the team ranks 25th worst against the pass on first down. There’s no questioning the effectiveness of the Vikings’ defense versus the run (ranked third by allowing just 68.4 YPG), but as New Orleans displayed last Monday Night, this is a secondary which gets plain burnt (the Saints’ QB Drew Brees threw for 330 yards with one TD).
Don’t expect Minnesota’s RB Adrian Peterson to be held under 100 yards rushing for a fourth straight week. Peterson’s worst outing of the season came in the same Monday Night win over New Orleans (30-27) in which second-year star gained a measly 32 yards on 21 carries. It was the final four weeks of last season that A.P. was held under the rushing century mark in four straight.
Favoring the Vikings in the matchup is a 5-0-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head matches and a 3-0 ATS record in the last three home games in this series. Bodog.com has listed Minnesota as a 13-point favorite with a total installed at 45 ½.
Note: Detroit second string QB, Dan Orlovsky is “questionable” with an ankle injury. Minnesota WR, Bernard Berrian has been listed as “probable” after sustaining a knee injury in the Monday Night victory.
Chicago (-3, 43.5) at Atlanta
There’s no beating around the bush, Atlanta (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) is an improved squad over years past. QB Matt Ryan may be serving his first tour of duty in professional pigskin but 863 passing yards with four trips into the end zone is encouraging if you’re a fan or backer.
Adding to the positive feedback on the Falcons is RB Michael Turner, ex-backup to San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson, who’s rolled over opposing defenses for 543 rushing yards with six TDs in '08.
Chicago (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) has continued to bully teams for just 74.2 YPG allowed on the ground, indicating a possible low scoring affair. However, the secondary needs improvement by giving up a surprising 223.4 YPG through the air. Atlanta has been bullish, rushing with 180.6 YPG, while falling behind with 164.2 passing YPG. So, can we invest in a low scoring game based on a balance listed here?
The ‘under’ has hit five straight times in head-to-head matches and has gone 7-2 in the last nine. Combine that with the Bears’ under at 4-0 in their last four road games and the Falcons ‘under’ hitting a 26-10-2 frequency in the last 38 games following a SU win and the total trends (At least these mentioned) could be perceived as a telling tale.
Chicago’s QB Kyle Orton, while scrutinized over the course of the season, has tallied 533 passing yards with five scores in his last two wins against Philadelphia and Detroit (even if the Lions are just that bad). The Bears have been able to cover five of the last six head-to-head clashes (one of those contests ended in a push). Hypothetically speaking, if Chi-Town can hold Atlanta’s run game in check (Falcons are averaging 180.6 YPG on the ground) look for Orton and RB Matt Forte to help open a gap on the scoreboard. If Atlanta’s halfback Turner can find the openings expect this game to be a sweat fest.
St. Louis (+13 ½, 44) at Washington
Not only are the Rams (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS) winless in the standings but bettors who’ve somehow managed to tie their money up with this team are experiencing a freefall from the onset of the season. This is truly a fade team to the ‘T’.
With St. Louis scoring 10.8 PPG, ex-coach Scott Linehan out and Jim Hasslet in there’s a lot of reason to be concerned from week-to-week. It does look like veteran gun slinger, Marc Bulger is returning behind center but will it make a difference?
For one, the Redskins (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) are a tremendous force hailing from the NFC East. Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last eight versus the Rams and is a hot 8-1 ATS as home favorites when coming off a division win, but trends may be irrelevant at this stage of the game.
The ‘Skins have outscored their opponent 25 ½-points per game to 20 ½-PPG but being the only team in the NFL to turn the ball over on offense speaks volumes. Washington has been able to sit on the ball for 35 minutes 54 seconds, ranking itself fourth best in the league. And probably the most important feat is the distinguished ability in turning the ball over on offense not once this season (only team left in the league to do so).
Looked upon as the key to accomplishment in the Rams organization, running back Steven Jackson finally put an end to his drought by breaking the 100-yard mark in Week 5. Jackson was able to notch 110 yards on 24 attempts in the 31-14 loss against Buffalo. Minus individual accomplishments, St. Louis is heading nowhere fast.
Carolina (+1, 36.5) at Tampa Bay
Backing up the Panthers’ (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) 8-3-1 ATS success in their last 12 games played in Week 6 is a defense giving up a scant 254.4 total YPG, while protecting the end zone from opposing teams for 14 PPG allowed.
Coach John Fox’s group isn’t without hurdles. Carolina center Ryan Kalil (ankle), tackles Jordan Gross (concussion) and Jeff Otah (ankle) have all missed action on the starting line. In reaction to the fractured ‘O-line’, QB Jake Delhomme has been sacked nine times this season for a loss of 61 yards. It’s actually a miracle how the 10-year slinger has been able to hang in the pocket for a 90.6 QB rating, while completing 60.6-percent of his passes.
Carolina will enter Sunday with a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 versus an NFC South opponent.
Then there are the Buccaneers (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) who field another top defensive unit in the NFL. Numbers like holding teams to 99.6 YPG on the ground and 218.6 YPG through the air aren’t showstoppers, but giving up 18.8 PPG ranks this squad eighth best. We can’t overlook this same ‘D’, led by defensive ends Gaines Adams (14 tackles, two sacks with two interceptions) and Greg White (12 tackles, 3.5 sacks), that’s been responsible for snatching away eight interceptions (third best in the league). Don’t overlook the 11 sacks on the season as another pressure cooker for opponents.
Tampa Bay is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games in Weeks 6 and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at home. The underdog in this matchup has run to the counter with an 8-2 ATS report in the last 10.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.