Even though the NFL regular season is just five weeks old, San Diego has already put itself behind the 8-ball. The Chargers and perhaps the league’s best player, LaDainian Tomlinson, expressed his concerns after the team lost to Miami 17-10 last Sunday.
“Make no mistake about it: This is a critical time for our football team," Tomlinson said. "These next (three games) before the bye are very critical for us. To me, this is going to determine what type of team we're going to be this year."
Not many expected San Diego to be 2-3 straight up and 2-2-1 against the spread after five games but you could make an argument that it could easily be 4-1, perhaps even 5-0. The three setbacks are by a combined 10 points and the Bolts haven’t benefited from bounces or calls all year.
Last Sunday, the Chargers came out flat and trailed the Dolphins 17-3 at halftime. In the third quarter, Norv Turner’s team cut the lead to seven and had an opportunity tie the game but Tomlinson was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line. Miami took over and was helped with a no-call on what looked like an intentional grounding play from QB Chad Pennington and were then handed a fortunate pass interference flag to get out of the endzone.
San Diego can make excuses for last week but the bottom line will tell you that Miami racked up 390 total yards and converted 50 percent (7/14) of its third downs. San Diego was only able to must up 202 total yards of offense and was just 3-of-12 on third down attempts in the loss.
Despite the lackluster effort in South Florida, San Diego is still averaging 29.6 points per game, which is ranked fourth in the league. Quarterback Philip Rivers has 11 TDs but he hasn’t been as accurate (60.4%, 4 Ints) this season, which is probably due to the lack of a running game (98.6 YPG). Tomlinson is only averaging 3.7 YPC and has found the endzone four times. Tight end Antonio Gates (16 catches, 3 TDs) has been held in check but he could be the go-to-guy this Sunday with WR Chris Chambers (11, 226 yards, 5 TDs) listed as “out” for this contest.
While the offense is the strength of the Bolts, the Chargers’ defense (25.8 PPG) has been soft and they’ll be tested this Sunday against a Patriots’ attack that is improving behind backup quarterback Matt Cassel (67.3 %, 707 yards, 3 TDs).
Last Sunday, Cassel passed for 259 yards and a touchdown as the Patriots stopped the 49ers 30-21 as three-point road favorites. The offense always gets the press but it was New England’s defense that dominated San Francisco. The unit held the 49ers to 199 total yards and forced J.T. O’Sullivan to toss three interceptions. The effort was much need by Bill Belichick’s team, especially after giving up 461 total yards and 38 points to Miami in Week 3.
The one knock on Cassel is his inability to get rid of the football. The former USC benchwarmer has been yanked down 15 times this season in four games. Last year, Tom Brady was sacked 21 times the entire season. The Chargers have racked up 13 sacks, ranked seventh in the NFL.
The Patriots decided to stay on the West Coast this week and practiced at San Jose State University in Northern California rather than make the cross-country trip for the second straight game. New England is 2-0 both SU and ATS on the road this year and owns a 12-game road wining streak dating back to the 2006 season.
San Diego stands at 1-1 both SU and ATS at Qualcomm Stadium this year, while the ‘over’ has gone 2-0.
New England has won the past three meetings against San Diego, including a 21-12 victory in last year’s AFC Championship game. It was the second straight time that the Patriots eliminated the Chargers from the postseason, doing so in 2007 with a 24-21 upset win at Qualcomm. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 during this stretch.
The Chargers opened up as six-point favorites but that number has dropped to five and the current Betting Trends at Sportsbook.com are leaning to the visitor.
Kickoff for this battle is set for 8:15 p.m. EDT, with NBC providing national coverage. If you’ve been following trends and tendencies this year, then you would notice that the play on SNF has been all about the underdog.
The last two primetime battles watched Chicago upset Philadelphia 24-20 and Pittsburgh knock off Jacksonville 26-21, both covering as live underdogs. The underdog stands at 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in the first six SNF games. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2.
Will the trends continue or can San Diego finally get back on track and earn a revenge win over the Patriots?
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
