Editor's Note: Odds supplied in this article are current as of June 18, 2009.
Admit it; you can’t wait for football to get underway already even though we’re a little less than three months away from the start of the new season. But time is surely on our side.
Summer is a great period to unearth the surplus of odds and ends. From analyzing season win totals to picking the teams that have the best shot at taking their conference, there’s plenty of research to mull over in our spare time.
This leads us to the value out there. Are the N.Y. Giants a solid pick at plus-150 (bet $100 to make $150) to grab an ever shifting NFC East division? What about the Broncos and their new QB at 4/1 odds to trump the San Diego Chargers (-300 to take the division)? The list of questions is astronomical but that’s why we're here.
Bright Future
How about the excitement coming out of the NFC South? Atlanta and New Orleans are the co-favorites to win the loop at Sportsbook.com. The Saints and Falcons both have plus-175 odds (risk $100 to win $175). QB Matt Ryan burst onto the scene in 2008, finishing his rookie campaign with an 87.7 QB rating. But the 3,440 passing yards and 16 touchdowns doesn’t do justice versus the command and leadership that Ryan brought into the organization. While the Falcons have youth on their side, one thing needs improvement if ATL wants to improve on last year’s success, defense. Sure, linebacker John Abraham led the defensive core with 16 ½-sacks, but the squad as a whole allowed way too many yards (347.9 combined yards per game).
Using seven of their eight draft picks on defensive players was clear indication of the route the Falcons are taking to improve this season. But can past problems be improved in one sitting? Not sure if that question can be answered at this point but 8/1 odds to take the NFC Championship and at 2/1 for bragging rights in the division proves that Atlanta is garnering respect.
But as Vegasinsider.com’s own Brian Edwards put it in his off-season article, “Atlanta has never had back-to-back winning seasons in the franchise’s lackluster history”. Is this the year they buck that trend?
Ravens’ Redemption
Opening at plus-180 to emerge on top of the AFC North (now at +300), don’t expect any gifts to be given to a team that must face the Steelers twice, Patriots, Chargers, Colts and Packers at Lambaeu Field. But with all due respect, the Ravens didn’t necessarily have the easiest schedule last year (3rd toughest). Against .500 or above teams, Baltimore ended up going 7-6 straight up but 8-5 against the spread (including three playoff games).
| Pittsburgh |
12 |
4 |
0 |
347 |
223 |
6-2 |
6-2 |
9-7-0 |
8-8-0 |
| Baltimore |
11 |
5 |
0 |
385 |
244 |
6-2 |
5-3 |
12-4 |
9-6-1 |
| Cincinnati |
4 |
11 |
1 |
204 |
364 |
3-4-1 |
1-7 |
7-9 |
5-10-1 |
| Cleveland |
4 |
12 |
0 |
232 |
350 |
1-7 |
3-5 |
6-9-1 |
6-9-1 | |
The juggernaut defense responsible for holding opponents to 15.3 PPG last season was good reason for the ‘under’ cashing in at home for a 5-3 record (despite the 180 degree turnaround on the road – ‘over’ was 6-1-1). There’s been plenty of changes on the defensive sidelines (obviously the biggest is losing Rex Ryan as defensive coordinator), but until they can show weakness during the regular season there’s no reason to expect digression. Just take into consideration that not all is the same. As part of Ryan's departure, linebacker Bart Scott and saftey, Jim Leonhard are now with the Jets.
What one-year surprising the books can do to a team on the board. It was at the beginning of the ’08-09 season that Sportsbook.com had listed the win total at six games for the Ravens. Fast forward to present day and Sportsbetting.com has sketched in the Ravens to a win total of 10. Is second-year slinger Joe Flacco ready for a repeat performance? Stay tuned as the offseason progresses.
The Texans
Houston is coming off an 8-8 season that was categorized by strong showings at home (6-2 SU). It was on the road that the Texans struggled mightily. When you’re allowing 26.8 PPG, 353.9 total YPG and turning the ball over three or more times on four separate occasions then the 2-6 SU road record isn’t that hard to breakdown.
If there’s any excuse to the ups and downs last season it’s the first four games played versus Pittsburgh (road), Tennessee (road), Jacksonville (road) and Indianapolis (getting outscored 32.5 to 20.8 PPG). Was there really any chance for Houston to get off on the right foot in ’08?
Current events that have swept past the team include dumping QB Sage Rosenfels (to the delight of the fans), adding hyped up outside linebacker, Brian Cushing from USC and gaining positional experience out of LB DeMaco Ryans and defensive end Mario Williams. But this is all speculative information. What we can say is that Houston was at plus-850 to take the division last year, and is now at a much more attractive plus-350 price. This and the fact that the win total for ’08-09 is up to 8 ½ versus 7 ½ wins.
Listen, let’s not fool ourselves. Adding ex-Bears’ QB Rex Grossman to the roaster is an indication that the position continues to be a plug and play entity. The team will make the transition into the new season relying heavily on the speed burst of running back Steve Slaton (1,282 rushing yards).
If the Titans can end up losing a step in comparison to last season’s tight grip, and the Jaguars remain in neutral then it looks like a bright decision for Houston to peak ‘over’ the 8 ½-game win total. Just beware of the two games against the Colts which could end up costing the Texans in the end (in terms of the win total).
Moving on Up
Kansas City was the equivalent to the Dolphins in 2007, falling one short of mimicking the synonymous 1-15 performance. What we did witness from the other side of the tube was a team that chalked up an unpredictable 8-8 ATS record, 8-8 ‘over/under’ frequency and a defense which ranked worst in the league.
So why the title or slogan at the top of this preview? First is the state of the AFC West. Can we say with confidence that both Denver and Oakland can reconstruct the wrecks that were 2008? Is San Diego as bad as the 8-8 record indicated? There’s no way of answering for sure but that’s why we question the authority that’s the NFL.
Making room for Matt Cassel behind center is exactly what the Chiefs need in relation to climbing out of the cellar. While WRs Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley aren’t the exact answers to conquering air supremacy, at least the upgrade in the QB position is a step in the right direction.
Bottom line, it was time to clean house, and Kansas City has made huge strides in doing so. This was a team that lost games in ’08 by an average margin of minus-9.3 PPG (minus-149 total). Even before KC began showing its true colors down the stretch, books had anticipated problems by averaging a point spread of minus-11 PPG from Week 1 to 10.
From a 5 ½ win total in 2008, books still aren’t convinced that drastic improvements are in the plans. As of Wednesday, the total we’re seeing is six wins. Schedule wise, the Chiefs should be able to contend quite competitively. Facing Denver and Oakland twice per year as usual should help cushion the improvement.
The Cheifs are at 8/1 odds for top position in the AFC West. And just food for thought, a price of plus-5000 to take the AFC Championship has since been lowered to +4000 (bet $100 to make $4,000). Worth thinking about as we sign off.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com
