| 2009 |
Pittsburgh (-5) |
Tennessee |
|
| 2008 |
N.Y. Giants (-4) |
Washington |
16-7 (Cover) |
| 2007 |
Indianapolis (-5) |
New Orleans |
41-10 (Cover) |
| 2006 |
Pittsburgh (-7.5) |
Miami |
30-20 (Cover) |
| 2005 |
New England (-7.5) |
Oakland |
30-20 (Cover) |
| 2004 |
New England (-3) |
Indianapolis |
27-24 (Push) |
| 2003 |
Tampa Bay (+3) |
Philadelphia |
17-0 (Cover) |
| 2002 |
New England (PK) |
Pittsburgh |
30-14 (Cover) |
| 2001 |
Baltimore (-10) |
Chicago |
17-6 (Cover) |
| 2000 |
St. Louis (-7) |
Denver |
41-36 (Non-Cover) |
The last defending champion to win and not cover was St. Louis in 2007. The Rams defeated the Broncos 41-36 but failed to cover as seven-point home favorites. Sticking with Denver, it fell to Miami 38-21 in Week 1 of the 1999 season, which was the last time the defending champs lost their opener after winning the Super Bowl in the previous year.
Pittsburgh can keep the trend rolling with a victory against Tennessee on Thursday.
Sticking with the Super Bowl theme, we would feel selfish not offering up another solid angle based on the big game. It’s been just as consistent as the above trend and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week, but for the entire season.
Ten straight seasons and counting, the loser of the previous Super Bowl is 2-8 straight up and 1-8-1 ATS in Week 1.
| SUPER BOWL LOSER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (1999-2008) |
| Year |
Loser |
Opponent |
Line |
Result |
| 2009 |
Arizona |
vs. San Francisco |
-6.5 |
|
| 2008 |
New England |
vs. Kansas City |
-16 |
Win 17-10 |
| 2007 |
Chicago |
at San Diego |
+6 |
Loss 3-14 |
| 2006 |
Seattle |
at Detroit |
-6 |
Win 9-6 |
| 2005 |
Philadelphia |
at Atlanta |
-1 |
Loss 10-14 |
| 2004 |
Carolina |
vs. Green Bay |
-3 |
Loss 14-24 |
| 2003 |
Oakland |
at Tennessee |
+3 |
Loss 20-25 |
| 2002 |
St. Louis |
at Denver |
-3 |
Loss 16-23 |
| 2001 |
N.Y. Giants |
vs. San Francisco |
+3 |
Loss 13-16 |
| 2000 |
Tennessee |
at Buffalo |
PK |
Loss 13-16 |
| 1999 |
Atlanta |
at Minnesota |
+4 |
Loss 14-17 | |
Last year, New England defeated Kansas City 17-10 in Week 1 but failed to cover the 16-point number. The Patriots did lose quarterback Tom Brady for the year in the first quarter and his backup Matt Cassel played well in this game and for the season too.
Arizona faces the daunting task of busting the streak and its Week 1 matchup against San Francisco does look a tad tricky. The Cardinals have been listed as 6 ½-point home favorites, which is three points lower than the previous three meetings between the two from the desert.
In those games, San Francisco has gone 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS at Arizona. The two losses came by an average of six points, very close to the point-spread.
According to betEd.com Sportsbook Manager Randy Smith and his team, they expect Arizona to get late action this week. “The Cardinals have received little action for their Week 1 match against the 49ers - but it's still very early to deter if the Cards will take on big action for that home game. That might have something to do with their preseason performance. We won't know for sure until later in the week, but we suspect that line will rise from 6.5,” said Smith.
The Week 1 trend of playing against the Super Bowl losers has carried on for entire seasons. In the table below, you can see that only two of the last 10 losers in the big game have made a return trip to the postseason the very next year.
| SUPER BOWL LOSER - RECORD HISTORY (1999-2008) |
| Year |
Loser |
SU Record |
ATS Record |
Playoffs |
| 2009 |
Arizona |
|
|
|
| 2008 |
New England |
11-5 |
9-7 |
No |
| 2007 |
Chicago |
7-9 |
7-9 |
No |
| 2006 |
Seattle |
10-8 |
8-10 |
Yes |
| 2005 |
Philadelphia |
6-10 |
5-11 |
No |
| 2004 |
Carolina |
7-9 |
10-6 |
No |
| 2003 |
Oakland |
4-12 |
3-10-1 |
No |
| 2002 |
St. Louis |
9-7 |
4-12 |
No |
| 2001 |
N.Y. Giants |
10-6 |
9-7 |
No |
| 2000 |
Tennessee |
13-3 |
6-10 |
Yes |
| 1999 |
Atlanta |
5-11 |
6-10 |
No | |
Even though the Pats missed the postseason in 2008, they did boast a winning record both SU and ATS.
What a lot of people forget about Arizona last year is that the club made the playoffs with a 9-7 record, some might even say they earned a trip because the NFC West was horrible. Either way, they did win three in a row in the playoffs, including a big win at Carolina.
Will the Cards rise again? We’ll find out soon enough, perhaps this Sunday.
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
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