Editor's note: Judd Hall is in his first year as an NFL handicapper for VegasInsider.com. Don't miss out on his selections. Click to win!
If there is one advantage that bettors have about the first week of NFL action is that they get the lines extremely early. Practically every betting shop out there had lines up and running for the gambling public back in the middle of June.
As great as it is to have early lines to feast upon, most of the public treat those lines like they do holiday shopping. In other words, some bettors are contest with perfect the American art of procrastination.
For those people that wanted to wait to make a wager, you’ll see a vastly different board than they first saw. Out of this week’s 16 tilts, only four of them have the exact same line that was released during the summer.
One of those games that have stayed the same is the Falcons being listed as four-point home favorites against Miami. While the spread isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, the total has bumped up to 43 ½ from the original point of 42 ½.
VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Marc Lawrence believes that the recent work of the Dirty Birds is coming into play with that line. “I don't think a one-point move is all that significant on an NFL total but my best guess would be everyone anticipates Atlanta's offense to be improved this season with TE Tony Gonzalez in the lineup. That and the fact that the Falcons scored 20 or more points in each of its first three preseason games before resting the regulars in Game Four.”
While Lawrence believes that the Falcons will hit fly ‘over’ that number, VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Tom Freese is focusing on what Miami does as the deciding factor. “The Dolphins were successful thanks to the wildcat offense.” Freese continues, “Anytime you have a team that likes to run the ball, you have to look at the ‘under’ because that clock is always moving and lends itself for lower scores.”
NBC’s showcase game between the Packers and Bears is very similar to what we’re seeing at the Georgia Dome. Green Bay was installed as a three-point home “chalk” with a total of 43 ½ back in the middle of June. Now the Pack is 3 ½-point faves with the total skyrocketing to 46 ½.
Lawrence’s thinking truly comes into play here as Green Bay has enjoyed Aaron Rodgers’s play during the preseason. Rodgers completed 70.7 percent of his passes for 465 yards and six touchdowns with no picks during the 2009 exhibition campaign. That shows the improvement he had at the end of last year (11 TD, 4 INT in last six games of ’08) is continuing well into this season.
The Bears are also expected to show a great deal of improvement offensively thanks to bringing Jay Cutler in to run things under center. With apologies to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and company, Chicago just doesn’t have the best group of targets for Cutler. But they have just enough talent to be dangerous.
Something else to keep your eye on for this opening weekend is the contests with double-digit favorites.
New England shouldn’t be a big surprise after being listed as an 11-point home favorite against the Bills. They were posted as a 10-point “chalk” back when the line first came out during the summer.
The Saints are among the big boys this week as 13-point home favorites against Detroit. Not a shocker when you consider the strength of their offense, anchored by Drew Brees. And we can’t forget about the Lions going winless in 2008.
The strangest double-digit line of this week has to be the Ravens coming in as 13-point home favorites against Kansas City. What makes this game stand out is the fact that Baltimore was initially posted as an eight-point home “chalk.” The line steadily grew to 10 on Sept. 6. Then the Ravens were catapulted to 13 the very next day.
I can understand a lot of people being down on the Chiefs this year with all they don’t have to work with in 2009. And the uncertainty of having Matt Cassel under center with a suspect left knee has no doubt helped the public drop its mortgage on Baltimore.
Freese was surprised to see this type of movement on a line. “Numbers are always going to move a point or two over a given amount of time, but this was very unusual to see in the NFL.” He continues, “You’re more apt to find the total make a jump like this in a short amount of time. This movement practically tells you to avoid it at all costs.” I have to agree.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
