This season marks the 50th anniversary of the American Football League, so it only makes sense that Week 1 would close between rivals of that upstart group. The Chargers invade Oakland to take on the Raiders in the 10:00 p.m. EDT game of ESPN’s Monday Night Football.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants initially opened the line for this game in mid-June with the Chargers as 6 ½-point road favorites with a total of 43 ½. Over the past two months, sharp money and public perception helped push up the line to 9 ½ with a total of 43.
San Diego comes into the third season of the Norv Turner era with high expectations. It’s not everyday you’ll say that for a team that is coming off of an 8-8 campaign, but this team has the goods. After all, they went to the AFC Title Game in Turner’s first year at the helm.
One of the things that the Bolts didn’t have last year was the services of Shawne Merriman due to torn knee ligaments. He appears to be back at full strength (his choice in women not withstanding) now after logging four solo tackles during limited playing time in the preseason.
Merriman’s presence will no doubt help improve a defensive unit that gave up 349.9 yards per game during the 2008 season. Luckily for the Chargers, they’re getting a team that hasn’t been too impressive on offense.
The Raiders ranked 29th in the NFL last season with just 272.2 YPG gained last year. However, they ranked 10th in the league with 124.2 rushing YPG. VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Jamie Tursini believes this is how Oakland must play to stay in the game. “Of course, the Raiders need to play ball control with their three-headed monster of backs. Starter Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush represent which is arguably the deepest set of backs in the NFL. But JaMarcus Russell is the quarterback and he must not make any mistakes including hanging onto the ball too long.”
Tursini makes a great point when it comes to Russell. He had a decent sophomore campaign with 2,423 passing yards with 13 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. However, Russell was sacked 31 times which led to him fumbling the ball 12 times, losing possession on seven off those. Couple that knowledge with him going against a San Diego defense that has pulled down the QB 70 times over the last two years and you can determine that it’s going to be a tough day for Russell.
Defensively, there is nowhere else to go but up for Oakland’s defense. This unit surrendered 360.9 total YPG last season. And if the preseason can be any sort of indicator, then it won’t be a whole hell of a lot better as they allowed 386.0 YPG and 26.8 points per game.
Those numbers don’t bode well when you consider they’re taking on one of the more explosive offenses in football. The Chargers were second in scoring offense last season, averaging 27.4 points per game.
Philip Rivers anchors the Bolts’ attack under center after compiling 4,009 yards through the air and a touchdown-interception ratio of 34-11. It’s hard not to put up those numbers when you have players like Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson at your disposal. That trio accounted for 2,228 receiving yards and 16 scores.
The Chargers were just 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread when posted as road favorites last season. Oakland wasn’t much better as a home pup, posting a 2-5 SU and ATS record in ’08.
The Raiders saw the ‘under’ go 5-3 at home last year, while San Diego saw the ‘over’ go 5-3 away Qualcomm Stadium.
This series has been extremely one-sided over the last five years as the Bolts have won 11 straight battles SU, covering the spread in 10 of those meetings. The ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
